Current Situation: Brazil’s national weather agency, Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), has issued a red alert, the highest on a three-tier scale, for a heat wave in southern regions, including parts of Mato Grasso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul for March 15-16. In the USA, the National Weather Service (NWS) has several severe weather warnings in place, including high wind warnings in parts of California, Utah, and New Mexico for March 15. NWS has also issued red flag warnings for critical fire weather conditions in parts of North Dakota and South Dakota on March 15. Flash flood warnings are in place in parts of southwestern Arkansas, northwestern Louisiana, and northeastern Texas as of March 15. 

Recommendations:  Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in Brazil and the USA on March 15-16 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks. 

Current Situation: Protest in support of President Gabriel Boric is slated in front of Plaza de la Constitucion in Santiago at 17:00 (local time) on March 16.The protest is being organized in support of the proposed laws introduced under Boric’s administration, including the “Critical Infrastructure law”, entailing protection of infrastructure by the Armed Forces, and the pension reforms. 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on social media estimates, the upcoming protest is likely to draw a turnout in the high hundreds-to-low thousands. While protests denouncing Boric have not been announced as of writing, given precedent of the September 30 and March 13, 2023 pro-Boric as well as simultaneous anti-Boric protests, the potential for spontaneous demonstrations by opposing groups remain likely in the vicinity. Given heightened sentiments against Boric’s alleged deficient security policies, the likelihood of clashes between protestors and potential counter-protestors, as well as with security forces cannot be ruled out. A bolstered security presence can be expected, to monitor the proceedings. Disruptions to traffic can be expected near the protest venue during the afternoon hours.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Santiago on March 16 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the potential for clashes in the vicinity of Plaza de la Constitucion during the slated protest. 

Current Situation: Authorities extended the ongoing curfew in Ouest Department, including in Port-au-Prince (PauP) from 19:00-05:00(local time) until March 17. On March 14, a fire broke out at the National Penitentiary facility in PauP. On March 13, Jimmy Cherizier alias “Barbecue”, G9 gang leader, threatened to attack officials supporting the CARICOM-proposed transitional council.  

Assessments & Forecast: While violence in PauP has relatively abated since PM Ariel Henry’s resignation announcement on March 12, Barbecue’s threat likely points to a potential resurgence should the council be formally instituted. With opposition groups like Montana Accord, declining to partake in the seven member-transitional council, alternatively proposing a three-member council including former coup leader Guy Philippe, previously imprisoned in the USA in 2016 for gang-affiliations, a political gridlock over the composition of the council will persist. Meanwhile, government buildings, police stations, airports, hospitals, and ports will remain the focal points of potential attacks in the coming days. Despite the partial resumption of business activities, the volatility in the security and political landscape, can continue to prompt disruptions to supply chains, essential services, air, land, and sea travel, and consular services.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Haiti on March 15 and in the coming days are advised to avoid all travel due to the extreme risk of gang violence.  

Current Situation: On March 14, the Senate voted 42-25 to reject the Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia (DNU) on economic reforms, with four senators abstaining. The DNU remains in effect until it faces a vote in the Chamber of Deputies. 

Assessments & Forecast: The development, following the collapse of the omnibus bill in the lower house on February 6, underscores the legislative limitations facing President Javier Milei and his La Libertad Avanza coalition in the Congreso, primarily stemming from their minority status in both houses. With Martin Lousteau, Union Civica Radical’s (UCR) leader, voting against the DNU, citing its unconstitutionality, inter-party tensions between the LLA and UCR are liable to remain heightened, plausibly derailing LLA’s plans to negotiate with opposition blocs to achieve consensus and salvage the bill. Consequently, the DNU is likely to be rejected in the lower house as well. The president calling the rejection an attack on the ‘Pacto de Mayo’ on March 14, could fuel apprehensions over the pact’s signing on May 25 with provincial governors. Continued setbacks to Milei’s libertarian economic reforms could potentially reduce investors’ confidence. 

Current Situation: On March 12, two Dutch nationals, including one minor, were killed, and two were injured in the Market Day Plaza in Belmopan. The detained gunman, of Haitian-American origin, was allegedly the owner of the residence rented by the family.  

Assessments & Forecast: Given that the suspect knew the victims, the incident is likely to have been pre-meditated and driven by personal motivations, supported by preliminary investigations suggesting the incident as being potential retaliation to the perpetrator’s suspicions of being poisoned by the victims. That the incident took place in a popular tourist location in Belmopan reflects the sporadic threat of violent crimes occurring in high footfall areas, supported by the death of an US national during a shooting incident at a nightclub in San Pedro, Ambergris Caye on January 1, 2023. Nevertheless, these incidents do not reflect a rising threat of violence targeting tourists visiting Belize. Despite a 3.5 percent drop in nationwide homicides in 2023, compared to 2022, considering the presence of violent gangs who use Belize as transit point for weapons and drugs trafficking, homicides, assaults, and armed robberies will recur. 

Current Situation: On March 13, the US Consulate General in Rio de Janeiro city (RdJ) issued a security alert for US citizens, citing increased robberies and assaults in the vicinity of Avenida Rio Branco. 

Assessments & Forecast: The alert is consistent with the persisting threat of cellphone thefts across RdJ, with 1,150 cellphone thefts recorded in January, equating to roughly 40 such instances per day. That 771 of 1,150 thefts in January were recorded in high-density areas including Centro, Catete, and Copacabana, reflect both tourist and residential areas as being the targets of such crimes. The increase in violent robberies in Barra de Tijuca by 71 percent in November 2023, as compared to 2022, can be attributed to the displacement of crime from the adjacent Copacabana, especially following the implementation of a security corridor in Copacabana, in response to a series of robberies since November. Based on precedent, robberies carry the potential to escalate into aggravated assault and gun violence, especially near high-crime areas, as seen on December 8, 2023, where two criminals in Vila da Penha assaulted and killed a victim for his cellphone. 

Current Situation: According to March 12 reports, a fast-food restaurant chain closed dining service at four outlets, offering only drive-through services, amid concerns over rising crime in Oakland, CA. One of the outlets, situated on 3535 35th Avenue, had been robbed four times since November 2023, twice when open for business.  

Assessments & Forecast: The recent closure of dining services is in line with the overall increased trend of burglaries and robberies in Oakland, as evidenced by the 23 percent spike in burglaries and 38 percent spike in robberies in city in 2023, compared to 2022. With businesses denying tax payment to protest increasing crime and demanding resignation of Mayor Sheng Tao on March 12 in Oakland, pressure is likely to mount on California Governor Gavin Newsom to implement tough measures, for a longer duration, amid security concerns. This is particularly likely with the Newsom government-announced February 6 deployment of 120 Highway Patrol officers in Oakland and East Bay against surging crime ending on February 9, yielding 71 arrests, including in connection to property crimes and vehicle thefts. 

Current Situation: On March 14, the US House of Representatives passed a bill forcing a Chinese parent company, to sell its video-sharing application within the next six months to a buyer that “satisfies” the US government or to face full ban. This follows concerns over the application’s alleged data sharing from users to China.  

Assessments & Forecast: Although the bill remains to be passed in the Senate, Washington will continue to crack down on Chinese applications deemed as a “national security” threat, supported by authorities arresting a Chinese national for stealing AI secrets from a US company on March 7, and US investigating a Chinese company over “connected car” technology on February 29. The bill is likely strategically aligned with attempts to protect electoral credibility ahead of the November 5 Presidential elections, supported by US officials claiming pro-China accounts spreading misinformation about US political candidates through the same Chinese application amid 2022 midterm elections. Therefore, strategic competition, including trade restrictions and punitive measures against Chinese businesses, will persist, thereby straining bilateral relations despite diplomatic meetings between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in November 2023.