Current Situation: Environment and Climate Change Canada, has issued red alerts (highest on a three-tier scale) for snowfall and winter storm in parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and has also released red alerts for snowsquall in Newfoundland and Labrador and extreme cold in Northwest Territories and Nunavut for March 2. Chile’s Servicio Nacional de Prevencion y Respuesta ante Desastres (SENAPRED) has declared a red alert for forest fire, “Los Guindos 4”, in Collipulli Commune in Malleco Province as of March 2. In Colombia’s Medellin, Aburra Valley a state of prevention due to poor air quality will be in effect from March 4 onwards. In addition, authorities will impose a restriction on the circulation of cargo vehicles during 07:00-8:30 and 17:30-19:00, while companies have been urged to adopt the teleworking modality or resort to staggered schedules from March 4 onwards. In the USA, the National Weather Service (NWS), has issued warnings against blizzards and snowstorms in the Sierra Nevada Mountains at least until March 3.  

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in the aforementioned parts of the Americas region on March 2-4 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks. 

Current Situation: Bike and car drivers’ associations have called for a demonstration in Bogota at 09:00 (local time) on March 3. The demonstrators are scheduled to meet at the Biblioteca Publica Virgilio Barco and proceed towards multiple locations throughout the city, details of which remain unconfirmed as of writing. The demonstration is being organized to protest alleged mistreatment and abuse of the associations’ members by the police. 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on previous protests’ by the bike and car drivers’ association, such as a protest in July 2022, the turnout for the demonstration is likely to be in the low-to-mid hundreds. Based on the mayor of Bogota, Carlos Fernando Galan’s statement that the local authorities will work with the organizers to ensure the demonstration take place peacefully, the mobilization is likely to transpire peacefully is not expected to result in unrest. Nevertheless, heightened security can be expected in the vicinity of the demonstration. Given that the drivers will be aboard their vehicles for the demonstration, the mobilization is likely to prompt significant disruptions to vehicular traffic in the immediate vicinity of the protest. 

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in Bogota on March 3 are advised to allot for disruptions to vehicular traffic due to the slated demonstration during the morning hours. 

Current Situation: The Mayor of Medellin, Federico Fico Gutierrez, issued a decree restricting the movement of minors aged below 18, in several parts of Medellin, Antioquia between 19:00-05:00 (local time) until July 31, 2024. The curfew applies to the following areas: areas surrounding Parque Lleras; Calle 33 (including Calle 37 between Carreras 43A and 54, and between the Autopista and Carrera 80 in both directions); La Candelaria, (from Calle Colombia to Rojas Pinilla, between Calle Bolivar and Calle Cucuta, including Plaza de Botero and Parroquia de la Veracruz); and Corredor de la 70 (from Carrera 70 to Carrera 68A, between Calle 47D and Circular 1). The curfew was introduced to protect minors from sexual exploitation and trafficking.

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in Medellin, Antioquia until July 31 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates on the ongoing curfew and security measures while traveling with a minor in the aforementioned areas.

Current Situation: On March 1, President Javier Milei gave an inaugural address to the regular session of Congress in which he proposed a pact agreeing on ten policies to facilitate the passing of his economic reforms. Milei proposed for the pact with provincial governors, which includes reforms to liberalize the economy and reduce public spending, to be signed in Cordoba on May 25.

Assessments & Forecast: The proposal reflects the Milei government’s efforts to enact libertarian economic reforms, with the omnibus bill failing to receive support in the lower house and the Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia (DNU) being challenged in courts. The friction between Milei’s administration and some provincial governors, with some provinces including Chubut threatening to cut oil and gas supplies in response to the government holding funds meant for the provinces, is likely to create challenges for the administration in garnering support for their proposal. Despite support for austerity policies from the US Treasury Secretary and the IMF Chief Economist, opposition from left-wing parties and provincial governors is likely to persist and manifest in the form of intermittent protests in major cities.

Current Situation: On March 1, the Chamber of Deputies approved six bills on multilateral loan contracts exceeding 750 million USD. The external credits, signed with agencies including the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) will be utilized to finance public infrastructural projects aimed at improving electricity access and inter and intra-provincial travel infrastructure.  

Assessments & Forecast: The approval in the lower house breaks the political deadlock over the loan contracts, with the approval delayed for over a year due to disputes within the rival factions (arcistas and evistas) of the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party. Nonetheless, with two additional bills linked to the extension of the mandate of the Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional (TCP) judges yet to be discussed and given that MAS’ evista faction continues to oppose the TCP judges’ mandate extension, a subsequent approval of the credit lines in the Senate remains largely contingent on the deliberation over the mandate extension bills. Regardless, the developments highlight the increasing concerns over President Luis Arce’s governability, with intra-MAS factions and a divided opposition, stymying key economic reactivation projects. 

Current Situation: Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier, leader of the G9 criminal coalition declared to overthrow the incumbent PM Ariel Henry-led government. A broader coalition of gangs under a “Vivre Ensemble” alliance, also led by Barbecue have been carrying out attacks in Port-au-Prince since February 29, with heavy gunfire recorded at the Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) and the Central Directorate of the Judicial Police on March 1.  

Assessments & Forecast: The wave of gang violence is likely to have been initially triggered by the PM Ariel Henry’s refusal to step down from his position on February 7 as established in the political agreement reached in 2021. However, with the recent “reciprocal agreement” signed with Kenya, mandating the deployment for 1,000 Kenyan police officers as part of the Multinational Security and Support (MSS) mission against gangs in Haiti, an escalation in gang violence is expected in the coming days, given the prevalent sentiments against perceived foreign interference. Key infrastructural facilities including airports, port terminals, highways, government buildings, and police stations are likely to remain the focal points of potential attacks. 

Current Situation: On February 29, four military personnel were killed and nine were injured when landmines exploded during a patrol along the road between Terrenatillo and El Montoso in Tepalcatepec, Michoacan. Following the explosions, unidentified armed men ambushed the convoy with gunfire and explosive-laden drones. 

Assessments & Forecast: The attack, having occurred in a territory disputed between the Caballeros Templarios-linked El Abuelo Cartel and the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), could have been perpetrated by either group, likely to assert dominance and hinder security. Nevertheless, the attack underscores the risk of persistent violence targeting security forces in Tepalcatepec, further supported by the January 20 killing of two security personnel in Tepalcatepec by a “narcomine”. Amid ongoing turf wars, criminal groups are likely to escalate attacks on military personnel, likely by deploying “narcomines”, explosive drones, and ambushes. Additionally, the incident is also likely to escalate security concerns and political insecurity across Michoacan, further exacerbated by February 29 reports of seven candidates withdrawing their nominations for elections in Michoacan, following the killings of two mayoral candidates within a span of few hours in Maravatio on February 26. 

Current Situation: On February 29, seven bullet-riddled bodies were found in Lagos De Moreno, Jalisco, while three narcomantas (threatening messages by criminal groups) were left in Fresnillo, Zacatecas. The incidents were recorded ahead of the first campaign rallies by the presidential candidates of Movimiento Ciudadano, Jorge Alvarez Maynez in Lagos de Moreno and of Fuerza y Corazon por Mexico coalition, Xochitl Galvez in Fresnillo on March 1. 

Assessments & Forecast: The Jalisco attack reiterates the elevated levels of insecurity in towns located along strategic drug trafficking routes bordering Guanajuato, Michoacan, and Zacatecas, manifesting as targeted cartel shootouts and armed robberies along highways. Moreover, the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI) records a 75.3 percent perception of insecurity in Lagos de Moreno, higher than the national average of 59 percent. Conversely, the narcomantas in Fresnillo suggests that the incident was likely an intimidatory tactic aimed at threatening Galvez. Separately, with both candidates starting their campaigns in high-risk states, alludes to the opposition candidates’ inclination towards an anti-cartel-violence rhetoric to gain electoral advantages, with similar intimidatory threats to recur amid campaigns ahead of the June vote. 

Current Situation: The Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana (Bolivarian National Armed Forces, FANB) destroyed several illegal mining camps in Yagua, Atabapo municipality, Amazonas, and El Encanto, Sucre municipality, Bolivar, per February 29 reports.
 
Assessments & Forecast: The developments are consistent with FANB’s efforts to crackdown on illegal mining in the Amazonas and Bolivar states, with over 12,000 illegal miners previously evicted between July-September 2023. Nonetheless, these incidents suggest the sustained presence of illegal mining activities in Amazonas and Bolivar, despite recurring security operations targeting such illicit extractive businesses. Over 70-80 percent of Venezuela’s total gold output comprises of “dirty gold”, mined without regulation or oversight, thereby increasing the chances of accidents such as the recent collapse of the illegally operated “Bulla Loca” mine on February 20. Besides, with government officials allegedly also involved in illegal mining, recurring efforts at dismantling such camps are unlikely to effectively reduce the illegal extraction and trade of gold. Overall, the developments are an indication of the poorly regulated mining industry in Venezuela, despite Bolivar remaining at the center of the Arco Minero de Orinoco, a mining belt created in 2016.