Current Situation: Bolivia’s Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hydrologia (SENAMHI) has issued red alerts, the highest on a three-tier scale, for floods near Acre River in La Paz department until March 11 and near the upper basin of Beni River in La Paz department until March 6. Environment Canada issued red alerts, the highest on a three-tier scale, for extreme cold in parts of Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Saskatchewan on March 6. Chile’s Servicio Nacional de Prevencion y Respuesta ante Desastres (SENAPRED) issued a red alert, the highest on a three-tier scale, for forest fires in Tirua commune, Arauco province on March 6. Ecuador’s Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia issued a red alert, the highest on a three-tier scale, for heavy rains in parts of Guayas, Los Rios, Manabi, Santa Elena, and Santo Domingo for March 6-8. The US National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a red flag warning for wildfire in Albuquerque, NM from 12:00 to 19:00 (local time) on March 6. In Texas, four wildfires remain active, including the Smokehouse Creek fire since February 26, as of March 5. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in Bolivia, Canada, Chile, Ecuador, and the USA on March 6-11 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks. 

Current Situation: Empresa de Acueducto y Alcantarillado de Bogota (EAAB), the public company in charge of water and sanitation works, announced water cuts for at least 24 hours across multiple localities in Bogota on March 6 to minimize the effects of water supply following major damage to pipes. The water cuts are slated across Chapinero, Ciudad Bolivar, Fontibon, Kennedy, Puente Aranda, Suba, and Usaquen, and will begin as early as 09:00 (local time). Exact details regarding the areas can be found here (in Spanish). Similarly, Enel Colombia, the electric power distribution company, announced planned power outages across Chapinero, Ciudad Bolivar, Kennedy, Puente Aranda, and Suba in Bogota on March 6, to carry out maintenance work. Exact details regarding the areas affected can be found here (in Spanish).  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas in Bogota on March 6 are advised to allot for disruptions to services due to the planned power outages and water cuts during the slated timings. 

Current Situation: On March 2, authorities arrested 152 individuals linked to Tren de Aragua (TdA) and Clan del Golfo (AGC) criminal groups in raids nationwide. During the operation, authorities also discovered a cocaine processing laboratory containing 3,000 kilograms of cocaine.  

Assessments & Forecast: The recent arrests highlight intensified efforts to crack down on criminal activities in Colombia, owing to the well-established presence of AGC and TdA, and associated turf wars over drug trafficking and extortion. While the large number of detainees in one single operation makes it highly notable, these mass arrests rarely have a tangible impact on these criminal groups’ operational capabilities and criminal activities. This is because of their transnational presence in multiple countries across the region and their decentralized structure. While further large-scale operations are expected across Colombia, these groups are likely to continue engaging in drugs, arms, and human trafficking, as well as extortion. Most of these operations are usually carried out in rural areas and rarely impact travelers. However, there have been reports of TdA engaging in armed vehicle theft in Bogota to sell vehicle parts on the black market.   

Current Situation: On March 3, three people were shot dead outside a concert venue in Zona 16, Guatemala City, meters away from the US embassy. The shooting unfolded during an argument concerning a vehicle that had been left in the custody of Christian Aroldo Heinemann during a concert. The owners returned to find their car damaged and confronted Heinemann. The altercation escalated, resulting in Heinemann firing a weapon and killing the owners and a bystander.  

Assessments & Forecast: The incident reflects the potential for verbal altercations to escalate into violence, while also reflecting the threat of spillover violence, with a pregnant bystander having suffered bullet impacts. The incident transpiring near a neighborhood that typically has bolstered security indicates that such escalations are unpredictable and not localized to any specific areas in the city. Moreover, despite the 20 percent decline in homicide rates in the city, with 584 incidents recorded in 2023 as compared to 618 in 2022, the recent shooting underscores the persisting threat of homicides, largely attributed to domestic disputes, interpersonal violence, violent conflicts over land resources, and intergang violence. 

Current Situation: On March 5, the Guardia Civil and Secretaria de Marina navy officers discovered an overturned vehicle with three corpses, reportedly struck by a landmine, near the El Tabanero ranch, along the highway connecting Tumbiscatio to Las Cruces in Michoacan.  

Assessments & Forecast: The incident reflects the persistent use of narcomines by cartels to vie for control over drug trafficking routes in the highly disputed Tierra Caliente region in Michoacan. This is likely given the presence of over 14 drug trafficking groups in Michoacan, including Cartel de Jalsico Nueva Generacion and that Tumbiscatio is considered as the stronghold of Servando Gomez Martinez, alias ‘La Tuta’, the leader of Los Caballeros Templarios gang. Moreover, it underscores the latent threat such explosives pose to security personnel and civilians in the region, as supported by an explosive attack in Aguilla, Michoacan, which killed four and injured nine soldiers on February 29 and the explosion of a “narcomine” that killed two security personnel in Tepalcatepec, Michoacan on January 20. Amid recurring turf wars, the threat from narcomines, ambushes, and explosive drones will remain, particularly across Michoacan’s rural areas. 

Current Situation: Per March 4 reports, six individuals were shot dead and at least three wounded in separate incidents in Puente Piedra, Lima province, between March 2-3. According to reports citing police, two incidents are believed to be settling of scores. Puente Piedra Mayor Rennan Espinoza demanded urgent intervention from the federal government to intervene in Lima Norte against criminals.  

Assessments & Forecast: The targeted nature of the attacks and the mayor’s statement suggest that the shootings were likely linked to gang activity. Although the incidence of gang violence in Puente Piedra is lower compared to Lima’s San Juan de Lurigancho and San Martin de Porres districts, the recent incidents coupled with police recording 10 violent homicides in Puente Piedra in 2024 so far reflect the credible potential for organized crime groups to expand presence in largely low-income areas amid absence of strong security measures. To this end, given that five mayors from the Lima Norte region, including Espinoza, requested a State of Emergency in September 2023, the recent shootings are likely to elicit increased calls from local authorities for bolstered security presence. 

Current Situation: Per March 5 reports, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in Miami issued a public alert seeking information on Majid Dastjani Farahani, a suspected member of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security. Farahani reportedly plotted the assassinations of current and former US officials as revenge for the 2020 killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani.  

Assessments & Forecast: The alert underscores Washington’s heightened surveillance of Iran-backed officials, as seen in the August 2022 indictment of an IRGC member for hiring US individuals to plot an assassination attempt on former National Security Advisor John Bolton. Reports suggesting Farahani’s potential visits to Venezuela could heighten concerns about plausible collusion among perceived adversaries to target US citizens. Amid heightened US-Iran tensions, notably over the Israel-Hamas conflict and the activity of Iran-backed militias in the Middle East, increased surveillance of Tehran-backed individuals operating domestically and abroad will continue, thereby also limiting the threat of a plot successfully manifesting in the country. This would also mean continued surveillance of social media forums and messaging platforms, where recruitment of individuals with pro-Iran or anti-US sentiments could occur. 

Current Situation: On March 5, US President Joe Biden extended the ‘national emergency’ by one year concerning Venezuelan government’s “erosion of human rights guarantees, persecution of political opponents, and curtailment of press freedoms, among others. The measure, originally signed in March 2015, is being extended because the circumstances “continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the USA.” 

Assessments & Forecast: The development reflects increasingly strained and failed rapprochement between Washington-Caracas, with Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro accusing US agencies of attempting to “destabilize” Venezuela, during a speech in January 2024. This is further supported by the US reimposing restrictions on a Venezuela’s mining company on January 30 after a court upheld a ban that prevents the primary opposition candidate, Maria Corina Machado from holding office on January 26. This, coupled with Caracas government official Diosdado Cabello stating that the upcoming elections scheduled for July will be held “without the presence of the USA”, contrary to the provisions of the October 2023 Barbados deal, Washington is unlikely to renew oil and gas license, slated to expire in mid-April.