Current Situation: Empresa de Acueducto y Alcantarillado de Bogota (EAAB), the public company in charge of water and sanitation works, announced water cuts in Bogota on March 8 to carry out preventative maintenance of water pipes. The water cuts are slated in San Cristobal and will begin at 14:00 (local time), lasting for about two hours. Exact details regarding the areas can be found here (in Spanish). Similarly, Enel Colombia, the electric power distribution company, announced planned power outages across Bosa, Chapinero, Engativa, Kennedy, Suba, and Usaquen in Bogota on March 8, to carry out maintenance work. The outages will begin as early as 07:30. Exact details regarding the areas affected can be found here (in Spanish).

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas in Bogota on March 8 are advised to allot for disruptions to services due to the planned power outages and water cuts during the slated timings.

Current Situation: On March 7, the State of Emergency (SoE) and curfew were extended in the Ouest Department, including in Port-au-Prince (PauP) through at least April 3. The curfew between 18:00-05:00 (local time) will be in effect until March 11. Additionally, lootings and vandalism were reported at the Caribbean Port Services terminal in PauP on March 6-7.

Assessments &Forecast: With port services coming to an indefinite halt, significant disruptions to supply chain and business operations as well as all maritime freight services will persist through mid-March. Given that PM Ariel Henry has been unable to return to Haiti since March 4, combined with the inability of security forces to combat gang violence, the persisting insecurity will likely remain sustained. As such, armed gangs will continue to target critical infrastructure including government offices, airports, highways, ports, police stations, and stadiums in PauP. With all airlines suspending flight operations to/from PAP airport since March 6, further cancellations and gang attacks manifesting as arson, shooting, kidnapping, looting, and vandalism at airports is expected in the coming weeks. This will be especially likely if PM Henry attempts to return.

Recommendations: Avoid all travel to and operations in Haiti due to the extreme risk of gang violence. Those continuing to operate or reside in Haiti are advised to minimize all outdoor movement, observe the nightly curfew, and avoid the vicinity of all political gatherings.

Current Situation: On March 7, a trolleybus driver was critically wounded after being shot in the head by an assailant posing as a passenger, at the intersection of Mendoza and Mexico, Belgrano neighborhood, Rosario, Santa Fe. The Union Tranviarios Automotor (UTA) automotive union announced the suspension of all urban and interurban transport services in Rosario until further notice, citing insecurity.

Assessments & Forecast: The incident highlights the rising threat of violent crimes targeting transport workers in the city, following the homicide of two taxi drivers with firearms, on March 5 and 6 in Rosario, with investigations revealing the passengers being the suspects in both cases. Given the modus operandi, the incidents are likely connected to organized crime, potentially in retaliation to Santa Fe Governor Maximiliano Pullaro’s increasingly assertive security approach, including mass arrests of alleged criminals as seen on March 6, to curb illicit activities citywide. Consequently, significant disruptions to travel on public transport are likely to continue in the coming days across Rosario, amid the ongoing indefinite strike by the UTA and the Sindicato Peones de Taxis Rosario (SPT), demanding security guarantees for workers.

Current Situation: On March 5, President Luis Arce appointed five ministers for rural development, mines and metallurgy, culture, education, and environment portfolios. The New minister of rural development, Santos Condori Nina, is a member Confederacion Sindical Unica de Trabajadores Campesinos de Bolivia (CSUTCB) farmers’ organization. Alejandro Santos Laura, the new minister of mines and metallurgy, is affiliated with the Federacion Nacional De Cooperativas Mineras De Bolivia (FENCOMIN) mining federation.

Assessments & Forecast: The cabinet reshuffle comes amid heightened tensions within the rival factions of the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party. The tensions are exacerbated by the Constitutional Court’s October 2023 suspension of MAS Congress that appointed Evo Morales as presidential candidate for 2025 elections and December 29 ruling annulling indefinite reelection. With this, the appointment of ministers who hold strong positions in influential social organizations reflect the government’s effort to garner increased support among the rural voter base which has traditionally been Morales’ political stronghold. Moreover, intra-MAS friction is likely to heighten ahead of the Arce-led faction’s party Congress on May 3-5, especially with Morales-led group mounting pressure over Constitutional Court judges’ mandate extension.

Current Situation: On March 6, dozens of protesters rammed a truck into Palacio Nacional’s entrance in Mexico City. The protests were held by normalistas (students from rural teacher training institutes) to demand justice for the alleged 2014 kidnapping of 43 students by the police in collusion with organized crime in Iguala from President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Normalistas also staged road blockades in Chilpancingo, Guerrero.

Assessments & Forecast: The developments reflect heightened discontent over the perceived injustice by the AMLO-led government in handling the case. While normalistas usually hold annual protests in Mexico City in September, around the anniversary of the incident, the latest protests were likely held to draw increased attention before the June 2 General elections. Thus, demonstrations are liable to recur intermittently in the near-to-medium term outside key government buildings in Mexico City and parts of Guerrero. Potential protests carry an increased risk of unrest manifesting as vandalism, supported by normalistas ramming a truck into an Attorney General’s facility handling the case on March 4 and throwing firecrackers in front of Foreign Ministry and Senate on February 28 in Mexico City.

Current Situation: On March 6, over 10 criminals stole electronic goods from an American multinational company’s store in Ovalo Gutierrez, Miraflores district, Lima. The criminals broke into the premises and stole an undisclosed number of phones, headphones, laptops, and smartwatches.

Assessments & Forecasts: That this follows robberies at the same company’s store in Lima’s Surco and San Isidro districts on February 10 and 29, wherein criminals stole goods worth 53,492 USD and 16,047 USD, respectively, reflects that the store was likely targeted due to its high-priced goods. Further, the incidents reflect the inability of authorities to combat ‘El Combazo’ modus operandi, involving criminals breaking–into stores to steal equipment. Based on the tactics, it is plausible that the same criminal group was involved in the recent robberies. Additionally, the incidents reflect the growing risk of robberies in Lima’s high-end neighborhoods which witness a high tourist footfall, like San Isidro, Surco, and Miraflores. Given that the modality of such robberies involves breaching entry points and quick escapes, with a notably low rate of arrest, similar robberies targeting business establishments in Lima’s affluent neighborhoods will likely continue. 

Current Situation: On March 5, with 91 votes, the Congress approved a constitutional reform that allows the re-establishment of a bicameral legislature in 2026 by forming a 60-member Senate. Meanwhile, Alberto Otarola resigned from his position as Prime Minister on March 5 following an audio leak that implicated Otarola of influence peddling. As per law, the entire 18-member cabinet will have to resign; however, they may be reinstated or swapped with other members by President Dina Boluarte.

Assessments & Forecast: Otarola’s resignation highlights the elevated political instability, with numerous cabinet reshuffles, including of key cabinets such as energy and economy among others, recorded since Boluarte became President, including the reshuffle of four ministers on February 13. The reintroduction of bicameralism was likely made to offset potential political crisis such as former President Pedro Castillo attempting to dissolve Congress and himself getting impeached on December 7, 2022. However, given that bicameralism was rejected by 91 percent of the voters in a referendum held on December 9, 2018, it is anticipated to elevated existing concerns of bureaucracy, corruption, and delayed legislation on important socio-economic issues.

Current Situation: On March 6, US Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the arrest of Linwei Ding, a Chinese national residing in Newark, CA, accused of stealing proprietary information related to disruptive artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Ding allegedly transferred sensitive information to personal accounts, while being secretly affiliated with China-based AI companies.  

Assessments & Forecast: The incident reflects the persisting threat of economic espionage amid the ongoing strategic AI competition between the USA and China, as supported by the arrest of Xiaoqing Zheng in March 2023 and Xiaorong You in May 2022, both of whom have been convicted for conspiracy to commit economic espionage while working for prominent American corporations. With measures including executive orders issued by the government on February 21 and 28, to secure digital networks at ports, and sensitive personal data, respectively, the incident is likely to trigger further legislation to regulate and surveil foreign nationals working nationwide with access to proprietary information deemed vital to national security interests. Additionally, the incident is likely to prompt public and private companies to bolster oversight mechanisms to protect sensitive technologies developed in the USA.