Current Situation: According to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Sara is located 55 km southwest of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, as of the night hours (local time) on November 15. In Belize, the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the entirety of its national coastline, including all of the Cayes, with an active flood warning in southern regions, as of November 15. TS Sara is expected to make landfall in southern Belize on November 17. In Honduras, the Comision Permanente de Contingencias (COPECO) has issued red alerts, the highest on a three-tier scale, across Atlantida, Colon, Cortes, Gracias a Dios, Islas de la Bahia, due to TS Sara, through November 17. President Xiomara Castro announced a State of emergency for 30 days on November 15, to mitigate damage caused by TS Sara. According to Agencia Hondurena de Aeronautica Civil, Aeropuerto Internacional Juan Manuel Galvez (RTB) in Roatan, Islas de la Bahia, Aeropuerto Internacional Goloson (LCE) in La Ceiba, Atlantida, and Aeropuerto Toncontin (TGU) in Tegucigalpa have suspended operations indefinitely due to heavy rainfall as of November 15. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned locations of Belize and Honduras on November 16 and over the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding the trajectory of the storm and storm-related risks. 

Current Situation: Several environmental and animal rights groups have called for a protest march in Guadalajara, Jalisco on November 17. Activists will gather in front of the Glorieta de la Minerva at 10:00 (local time), and march through Avenida Vallarta and Avenida Chapultepec towards the Glorieta de los Desaparecidos. The demonstration is being organized to promote veganism and to denounce animal abuse. 

Assessments & Forecast: The planned march is part of a series of demands under the “anti-speciesist” slogan, calling on the state to strengthen laws against animal abuse. The most recent “anti-speciesist” protest, held in downtown Guadalajara on October 13, attracted a turnout in the low hundreds and transpired peacefully. Based on previous animal rights protests in Guadalajara, the upcoming march is expected to draw a turnout in the low hundreds and transpire peacefully. Regardless, authorities are likely to deploy security personnel along the protest route to monitor proceedings and divert traffic. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected near the abovementioned protest locations, especially along the march route on Avenida Vallarta and Avenida Chapultepec. 

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in Guadalajara on November 17 are advised to allot for disruptions to traffic near Avenida Vallarta and Avenida Chapultepec from the morning hours onwards due to the slated protest march.

Current Situation: The Green New Deal Network climate activist group has called for a rally in front of the Federal Triangle Metro station in Washington, DC at 13:00 (local time) on November 17. The protest is being organized to urge President Joe Biden to prioritize climate change-related goals before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2025. Reports also indicate the support of other activist groups for the rally, including Fridays For Future USA, Shut Down DC, This Is Zero Hour, and Sunrise DC.  

Assessments & Forecast: Given the past protests held by the Green New Deal Network in New York City and Washington DC, the expected participation of other climate activist groups, and the perceived shift in policy priorities under Trump, the upcoming protest is likely to draw a turnout in the low-to-mid hundreds. Moreover, given precedent, the protest is likely to transpire peacefully. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be anticipated near the Federal Triangle Metro Station during the afternoon hours.  

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in Washington, DC on November 17 are advised to allot for disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic near the Federal Triangle Metro Station due to the slated rally from the afternoon hours onwards. 

Current Situation: On November 12, Los Duendes gang members attacked inmates at Guayaquil’s Penitenciaria del Litoral Prison, leaving 17 prisoners dead and 15 injured. Approximately 40 assailants confronted 32 inmates from the rival Los Freddy Kruger group, using firearms, explosives, and knives. 

Assessments & Forecast: This attack reflects the entrenched and brazen nature of criminal gangs within the prison system despite militarization. Since January, measures to curb violence, including weapon seizures and reorganization of inmate cells, have faced limitations in dismantling gangs. The involvement of Los Duendes, a historically low-profile group, signals shifting alliances and territorial disputes, both in prisons and on Guayaquil’s streets. Their expanding operations, seen in northern districts and Daule since March, illustrate how prison violence fuels external criminal economies, including extortion and drug trafficking. Further violence cannot be ruled out, with near term retaliation possible from rival groups like Los Freddys and Mafia 18, evidenced by clashes in pavilion ten on November 13. With continued gang presence in parts of Guayaquil, such as Los Vergeles and Capitan Najera, intra-prison clashes and targeted shootings in gang hotspots are liable to recur intermittently.  

Current Situation: On November 15, indigenous groups, unions, and social organizations staged nationwide protests demanding President Daniel Noboa’s resignation, citing blackouts and the economic repercussions. Protesters also observed the anniversary of the 1922 Guayaquil Massacre. The protest in Quito attracted hundreds of participants, with clashes reported as demonstrators attempted to move from El Ejido Park to Plaza Santo Domingo, which was heavily guarded by security forces. Authorities used tear gas and pepper spray to disperse confrontational crowds. 

Assessments & Forecast: The nationwide protests and sentiments of participating groups reflect growing discontent among a segment of the population against Noboa, with indigenous groups and other social organizations seeking to unify grievances to exert political pressure ahead of the February 2025 general elections. This comes amid a severe energy crisis, with recurring daily blackouts, costing the economy approximately USD 12 million per hour, impacting key sectors like tourism, agriculture, and health. The frequency of anti-government protests, particularly in Quito, is liable to increase over the coming months before elections. On the same note, the potential for localized unrest may relatively increase at anti-government demonstrations.

Current Situation: 14 bodies were found in parts of Culiacan municipality on November 13. A narcomanta was found next to a body saying, “this will happen to those who support Mayosapos”, referring to the Cartel de Sinaloa’s (CDS) Los Mayos faction.  

Assessments & Forecast: The incident reiterates sustained rivalry between the feuding CDS factions, Los Mayos and Los Chapitos, which intensified since the arrest of CDS leader “El Mayo” on July 25. The threatening pamphlets and dismemberment of the victims are attempts to assert power in Culiacan, the stronghold of the CDS. Persisting security reinforcements since the initial escalations on September 9, including patrolling on highways and arrests and seizures targeting cartels, appear to have reduced the intensity of the turf war. The daily average of intentional homicides in Sinaloa, largely attributed to CDS violence, peaked from 4.17 deaths in September to 5.77 deaths in October. The number dropped to 3.91 average daily deaths in November as of November 11. This indicates that the security situation is unlikely to stabilize in the near-to-medium term despite improvements, with targeted shootings likely to recur on Culiacan’s outskirts. 

Current Situation: Chinese President Xi and Peruvian President Boluarte inaugurated the Chancay mega-port during the APEC summit in Lima. The port follows the 2019 agreement between Peru’s Volcan Compania Minera SAA and Chinese state-owned COSCO Shipping Ports Limited. Peru and China also extended the 2009 Free Trade Agreement (FTA).  

Assessments & Forecast: The developments signal deepening of Peru-China economic ties. Beijing’s interests in Peru are increasingly diversifying beyond mining—already a significant area of Chinese investment, with 11.4 billion USD allocated across key projects. The Chancay port is expected to solidify China’s control over global mineral supply chains, given Peru’s vast mineral reserves. The port will also provide an alternative route for Chinese imports and exports from the Americas, bypassing US ports, and facilitating trade of resources including lithium from Argentina and oil from Venezuela. That said, the port’s development is expected to raise concerns in Washington, particularly about its potential use by the Chinese military. Additionally, environmental concerns associated with Chancay port could trigger intermittent protests from the local community after the inauguration, given precedent of several anti-port demonstrations in the town.

Current Situation: The Republican Party won 218 seats, required to maintain a majority in 435-member House of Representatives.  

Assessments & Forecast: Republican control over the House, Senate, and White House will facilitate the expedited passage of conservative legislation without significant opposition from the Democrats through 2026 Midterms. Despite the slim House majority, the scope for intra-party resistance is limited, given Trump’s centric popularity among lawmakers’ voters. Thus, key campaign proposals concerning border security and migration controls, the deregulation of the energy sector, tax cuts, and the establishment of a new government spending regulation agency, will likely gain swift Congressional approval. Trump’s strong influence among lawmakers will also enable a likely shift in foreign policy, potentially including an expedited settlement with Russia in Ukraine, increased tariffs for Chinese imports, and checking Iranian power through reinforced sanctions on oil. With the Republican trifecta and concerns over fast-tracking of MAGA policies, left-leaning activist groups are expected to stage recurring protests in major urban centers in the coming weeks, as seen after November 6. The scale of protests can increase ahead of the Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025. 

Current Situation: 30 individuals from three rival gangs were charged for violence since 2018 in Upper Manhattan. The gangs are reportedly responsible for over 50 percent of shootings in Inwood and Washington Heights in 2024.  

Assessments & Forecast: The charges reiterate stepped-up law enforcement efforts to address gang violence, supported by similar targeted crackdowns in Bronx and Brooklyn in August and May 2024, and in Queens in March 2023. Reports show a six percent decrease in shootings in New York City in 2024 as of November 5 compared to the same time in 2023, presumed to partly result from security crackdown. However, dismantling gangs could create a power vacuum and pose limitations for crackdowns, with groups typically operating in a decentralized manner. Given this, the recruitment of youth, and the use of social media for provocative communications against rivals, the turf wars are likely to persist in Washington Heights and Inwood, manifesting as sporadic shootings targeting rivals with a credible risk of spillover violence. This is reflected in 200/8 gang members firing shots at 6-Block members in Washington Heights on October 2, leaving a bystander dead.