Current Situation: Authorities have designated the official dates of the G20 as holidays in Rio de Janeiro. The official meetings will take place at the Museu de Arte Moderna (MAM) and at the Museu do Amanha. Security will be strengthened at Tom Jobim International Airport (GIG). Multiple pro-Palestinian and left-wing groups have called for a protest in Cinelandia, downtown Rio de Janeiro, at 10:00 (local time) on November 18. A Heads of State meeting with China is planned in Brasilia, DF, on November 20.

Assessments & Forecast: The slated security measures come as part of the usual security protocols associated with such high-level events. This also comes amid heightened security vigilance driven by two explosions outside the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) building, in the Brasilia, DF, on November 13, highlighting a latent threat of high-intensity violence involving the use of firearms and explosives by extremist and self-radicalized elements. Additional protests by environmental, labor, and human rights activists can be anticipated to materialize during the period of the summit, with turnouts ranging from the low hundreds to the mid thousands, as expected with the pro-Palestinian rally.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Brazil between November 18-19 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of the locations where events for the G20 Summit are slated to be held.

Current Situation: Reports indicate that Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith supported Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s call for Mexico’s removal from the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), set to be reviewed in 2026. Ford argued that Mexico has become a “backdoor” for Chinese products, including cars and auto parts, entering North America by bypassing tariffs. He proposed a return to the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement as a solution.

Assessments & Forecast: These statements suggest a potential shift toward a more protectionist Canadian trade policy, especially in automotive manufacturing, aligning with U.S. efforts to curb Chinese influence in North America via Mexico, following Trump’s presidential win. The developments echo Trump’s intentions to renegotiate CUSMA amid increasing concerns of job losses in the USA, and which also ties into his broader “America First” policy. The statements overall highlight growing traction for the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement to prevent China from evading economic repercussions following Trump’s electoral promise of implementing a minimum 10 percent tariff for all imports into the US. While the likelihood of such an FTA remains uncertain, in response to Canadian statements, Mexico will likely threaten tariffs.

Current Situation: Reports indicate that crossfires between police and Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (ELN) members took place amid a security operation in San Pablo, Bolivar.

Assessments & Forecast: The operation indicates authorities’ sustained efforts to curb the presence of armed groups in southern Bolivar, where ELN and the Clan del Golfo seek to control gold mining revenues. This is evidenced in the additional deployment of 180 police officers in El Penon, Regidor, Rio Viejo, Simiti, and Santa Rosa del Sur on November 9. Additionally, the operations reflect authorities’ nationwide efforts to curb ELN’s presence. This comes after the army resumed offensives against the ELN after the ceasefire ended on August 3 and the government suspended Paz Total process with the group after the September 17 attack on an army base in Arauca. Moreover, the ELN perpetrated 16 attacks against security forces, 27 attacks on oil infrastructure, and 10 armed strikes in different locations since August 3, as per November 10 reports. This, and the recent incidents undermine the possibility of progress in peace negotiations between the ELN and the government, slated for November 19.

Current Situation: As per November 15 reports citing Instituto Cubano por la Libertad de Expresion y Prensa, a citizen journalism NGO, approximately 74 violations of freedom of expression and press violations were recorded nationwide in October. These included 18 arbitrary arrests, 11 alleged abusive uses of state power, eight restrictions in the digital space; six imprisonments and four alleged physical attacks, constituting 37 more than the cases recorded in September.

Assessments & Forecast: The latest reports reflect a deteriorating landscape for the media in the country, intensified by the implementation of the Ley de Comunicacion Social (Social Communication Law) on October 4. This press and media regulation seeks to legitimize centralized control over information, tighten censorship, and restrict independent journalism, especially amid heightened protest activity fueled by power blackouts and food shortages. Notable incidents of authorities applying the regulation include a documentary filmmaker and a freelance journalist being forced to resign publicly under alleged duress on October 8 and 9, respectively. Hence, in the near-to-medium term, arbitrary arrests and threats of legal prosecution, particularly for those critical of the government, are anticipated.

Current Situation: According to a joint press release by the Cancilleria de Colombia and Cancilleria de Ecuador, the nations’ respective foreign ministries, Colombia will resume electricity exports to Ecuador. Colombia previously restricted energy exports to Ecuador on September 30, due to Colombia’s drought-related power shortages. Ecuador, however, remains in a critical energy crisis, facing daily power cuts of up to 12 hours.

Assessments & Forecast: Colombia’s resumed exports, which unconfirmed reports suggest could begin as early as November 18, will only partially ease Ecuador’s crisis but will not eliminate blackouts altogether as Colombia is expected to provide up to 450 megawatts per day, which is well below Ecuador’s 1,800-megawatt deficit. This will only partially reduce the length of daily power cuts, which are expected to persist at least through the near term. Low water levels at the Mazar reservoir caused the Pauto-Molino Hydroelectric complex, the largest in the country, to stop operations on November 15. This is expected to add additional stress to Ecuador internal energy output. Consequently, Ecuador is expected to continue pursuing private energy contracts with Colombian suppliers as additional alternatives.

Current Situation: Reports indicate that the International Organization for Migration (IOM) stated that over 20,000 residents of Port-au-Prince have fled the city due to escalating gang violence. Meanwhile, reports indicate that the US is intensifying efforts to transform the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support Mission (MMSS) in Haiti into a UN peacekeeping mission. Separately, the newly appointed Prime Minister, Alix Didier Fils-Aime, announced the new ministerial cabinet.

Assessments & Forecast: The displacements reflect the widespread humanitarian impact of the ongoing gang violence while highlighting the shortcomings of the MMSS’s to restore order in Port-au-Prince. The new government has failed to outline any steps to address the worsening security landscape and is unlikely to take decisive actionable decisions in the near term. Conversely, the US will likely continue to address funding shortfalls by advancing the proposed MMSS transition to a UN peacekeeping force. However, resistance from Russia and China in the UN Security Council will likely delay immediate progress. If transitioned, the UN peacekeeping framework could stabilize funding and enhance legitimacy but may face operational delays and local skepticism, given past controversies with international interventions in Haiti.

Current Situation: Reports indicate that the Senate unanimously approved the strengthening of Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection’s (SSPC) role in coordinating assistance to the Executive in security tasks. The reform enables SSPC to coordinate national, state, and municipal forces in security tasks.

Assessments & Forecast: The bill, pushed by the ruling Movimiento de Regeneracion Nacional (MORENA), is part of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s efforts to centralize the coordination of security as a key strategy in combating organized crime. This is driven by the sustained operations of major drug cartels, such as the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion and the Cartel de Sinaloa across several states, which challenge security coordination within the current framework. By giving greater prominence to the SSPC, Sheinbaum is shifting the oversight of the crackdown against cartels away from the military, largely to curb corruption within law enforcement. This marks a shift from the strategy of Sheinbaum’s predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), during whose tenure homicides totaled 188,987, marking a significant increase compared to previous six-year periods. Senate’s unanimous approval and MORENA’s majority in the Lower House will ensure the bill’s passage.

Current Situation: On November 15, Democratic Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Jack Reed urged the Justice Department and Pentagon to investigate communications between President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian government officials and private space company SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. The Senators raised concerns about potential national security given Musk’s role as a government contractor for critical space infrastructure and his security clearance.

Assessments & Forecast: This development reflects heightened concerns over Musk’s interactions with perceived adversaries of the USA, raising questions about undue influence during President Joe Biden’s administration or Donald Trump’s upcoming term along with the risk of exposing sensitive information. This is buttressed by reports suggesting that Musk has engaged in conversations with Putin regarding an end to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict since 2022 while Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticized Musk for attempting to limit Starlink’s access for Ukrainian forces in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied areas in 2022. Given Musk’s endorsement of and proactive involvement in Trump’s reelection campaign, alongside increased support for Musk among conservative and independent voters, will likely fuel accusations by Republicans’ and public over Democrats weaponizing the judiciary against political opponents.