Current Situation: According to reports, the indefinite strike by federal customs tax auditors associated with the Sindicato Nacional dos Auditores-Fiscais da Receita Federal since 00:01 (local time) on November 26, is ongoing as of writing. The strike is aimed at demanding an increase in salary for the auditors. Reports indicate that inspection and clearance of priority shipments that includes live animals, hazardous materials, perishables, medications, and food will continue uninterrupted. 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on precedent, including the 81-day strike by the tax auditors of the said union from November 19, 2023, to February 8 and 48-hour strike on October 29-30, the ongoing strike is expected to slow down operations at custom facilities nationwide because of increased inspection volumes. This will primarily manifest as delays in inspections of non-priority cargoes at airports, shipping ports, and border check posts nationwide for the duration of the strike. This is especially plausible at Porto de Santos, Sao Paulo, which reportedly accommodates 30 percent of the country’s import-export operations. The precedent indicates the likelihood of the ongoing strike continuing in the coming weeks until authorities negotiate with the tax auditors. 

Recommendations: Those operating via custom facilities in Brazil on November 30 and over the coming days, including at shipping ports and airports, are advised to allot for operational delays for non-essential cargoes due to the ongoing labor action.   

Current Situation: Reports indicate that a parade and caravan events are planned across multiple provinces to commemorate Christmas between December 1-21. The annual Paris Parade 2024 in Santiago, Region Metropolitana (RM), is planned at 12:00 (local time) on December 1. The parade will commence from Estacion Salvador on Avenida Providencia, pass along Estacion Baquedano, Estacion Universidad Catolica, Estacion Santa Lucia, and conclude outside Estacion La Moneda, Avenida Alameda Libertador Bernardo O´Higgins. Associated traffic disruptions in the area will begin at 20:00 on November 30. According to reports, the parade will involve over 2,000 performers. The parade typically draws a spectator turnout in the low-to-mid hundreds of thousands. Separately, Caravana Navidena de Coca-Cola 2024 are planned across multiple communes nationwide between December 2-21, including La Florida, Puente Alto, Puerto Montt, Temuco, Concepcion, Talca, Macul, Coquimbo, La Reina, San Joaquin, Vina del Mar, Renca, and Maipu. Details regarding the timing and routes of the caravans can be found here (in Spanish). 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas in Chile from November 30-December 21 are advised to allot for travel disruptions near the Christmas parades during the slated timings. 

Current Situation: A march commemorating the World AIDS Day will take place from Angel de la Independencia to the Monumento a la Revolucion in Mexico City from 18:00 (local time) on December 1. The exact march route remains unconfirmed, as of writing. The march has been organized by local civil society groups to raise awareness about HIV/AIDS and to demand equitable access to housing for people living with HIV and increased access to healthcare and social services, especially for members of the LGBTQ+ community. 

Assessments & Forecast: Given the traction the march has received on social media, it is likely to draw turnouts ranging in the mid-to-high hundreds. The event is likely to transpire peacefully without major unrest, based on the organizers’ call to action including a strong plea for restraint and peaceful conduct, and official permission being taken for the march. Nonetheless, a bolstered security presence is likely at the Angel de la Independencia and along the march route to monitor proceedings. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular travel are anticipated in the vicinity of the event locations and along the march.    

Recommendation: Those operating or residing in Mexico City on December 1 are advised to allot for traffic disruptions in the vicinity of Angel de la Independencia and the Monumento a la Revolucion, due to the scheduled march. 

Current Situation: The Registro de Ciudadanos of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE, electoral authority) decreed the cancellation of the ruling Movimiento Semilla (MS) party led by President Bernardo Arevalo. This follows a ruling by Seventh Criminal Judge, Freddy Orellana, ordering the MS’s cancellation after investigations into alleged irregularities in the formation of the party by the Ministerio Publico (MP) starting in July 2023. 

Assessments & Forecast: The development follows consistent attempts by the MP to take legal action against Arevalo and the MS, that drew condemnation from US officials for “undermining the peaceful transition of power” after Arevalo’s victory in August 2023 run-off elections. Moreover, the Congress approved a law on November 27 which prohibits judges from suspending the registration of political organizations, with its author, MS Congressmember Samuel Alvarez reiterating TSE’s sole responsibility in such matter. Given this, TSE’s decision is likely to elicit increased uncertainty regarding the status of the MS party, heightening political tensions. In the near term, protests in support of and against the ruling can be expected in Guatemala City, including at the MP’s offices, the Congreso, and the TSE. 

Current Situation: Per November 27 reports, Quetzaltenango department recorded 47 homicides between January and October, representing a 62 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. 

Assessments & Forecast: The rise in Quetzaltenango’s homicide rates, contrary to the national trend of decline, can likely be attributed to turf wars over control of extortion-related activities between gangs such as the Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18. That said, the rise in turf wars in 2024 was likely due to the spillover of violence between said gangs within prisons onto streets, fueling broader conflicts, a pattern witnessed recurrently in recent years. The security situation is unlikely to improve in the medium term, given the inadequacies in existing security infrastructure, as evidenced by only 54 police officers deployed to Colomba in September as part of a special police taskforce to combat gang violence. The threat of violence is expected to remain highest in municipalities such as Colomba and Coatepeque, which account for over 60 percent of the violence in Quetzaltenango, likely due to poor security measures, socioeconomic conditions which allow for recruitment of new members, and alleged corruption. 

Current Situation: On November 28, the Senate voted to eliminate seven autonomous institutions, including Instituto Nacional de Transparencia, Acceso a la Informacion y Proteccion de Datos Personales (INAI) and anti-trust regulator Comision Federal de Competencia Economica (COFECE). The functions of these bodies will now be taken over by State Secretariats. The reform requires approval from 17 of 31 state congresses and Mexico City.   

Assessments & Forecast: The development, originally proposed as part of constitutional reforms by former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) on February 5, highlights the current administration’s ongoing attempts at centralization of the country’s institutions. As seen with the judicial reforms, this measure is also expected to result in heightened concerns over democratic values and transparency from opposition parties, economic investors, and civil society groups. Consequently, largely peaceful and intermittent protests led by civil society groups, particularly outside government institutions, as seen on November 10 with anti-government demonstrations denouncing judicial reforms, remains likely. Given ruling Movimiento de Regeneracion Nacional’s (MORENA) majority in 23 states, its passage is likely, with six already approving it. 

Current Situation: On November 28, the Asamblea Nacional (AN) approved an immigration reform allowing the government to deny entry to individuals, including Nicaraguans, who represent a “social risk.” The reform also amends the Penal Code, imposing prison sentences of two to six years for Nicaraguans who enter or leave the country irregularly, in order to undermine the nation’s sovereignty or engage in terrorism. 

Assessments & Forecast: The reform reflects President Daniel Ortega-led government’s increased efforts to expand administrative control ahead of the 2026 elections, aligning with the November 20 constitutional reforms , which also legalizes statelessness among other measures. Moreover, the November 25 AN-passed reform against entities cooperating with foreign sanctions. This mirrors earlier crackdowns, including the September 10 revocation of nationality and asset seizures of 135 political prisoners. The move may also preemptively target individuals at risk of deportation under the anticipated resumption of stricter US immigration crackdowns under President-elect Donald Trump. Hence, going forward, civil society, media, and opposition groups are likely to face further restrictions and surveillance in the form of bans, arbitrary arrests or legal threats.  

Current Situation: On November 27, police arrested five suspects for vandalizing a building, using spray paint and liquid, operated by a pro-Israel lobbying group, located in the 200 block of H Street in Washington, DC. The suspects were arrested near the scene. 

Assessments & Forecast: The involved suspects’ social media activity shows left leaning and pro-Palestinian inclinations. Given this, the incident aligns with a pattern of low-intensity vandalism targeting Israeli-linked institutions across the country, a common tactic among left-leaning pro-Palestinian groups amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In addition to Israeli or Jewish-linked institutions being recurring targets of spray painting and graffiti, similar incidents can also target public monuments or private residences of elected representatives or prominent individuals perceived to be pro-Israel. More recently, masked individuals defaced University of Washington president’s residence in Seattle, WA on November 14 with pro-Palestinian graffiti, which was touted by a left-leaning activist online page. Moreover, the prompt arrests highlight elevated alertness among law enforcement agencies in responding to recurring hate crimes linked to the Israel-Hamas conflict.   

Current Situation: On November 28, the Asamblea Nacional (AN) unanimously approved the passage of the Ley Organica Libertador Simon Bolivar, which provides for the lifetime disqualification of politicians who have called for intervention, including economic sanctions, by foreign powers in domestic affairs. 

Assessments & Forecast: The development is reflective of consistent efforts by the President Nicolas Maduro-led government to crackdown against the opposition. It closely follows remarks by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado of the Plataforma Unitaria Democratica (PUD) calling for increased international pressure against Maduro’s disputed re-election following the US House of Representatives’ passage of the BOLIVAR Act on November 18, which prevents Washington from contracting with entities engaged with Maduro’s government. The new law will grant further legal grounds to the Ministerio Publico in its investigations into Machado for alleged treason and conspiracy with foreign countries, launched on November 22. The law can be expected to significantly deter the return of PUD’s former presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia to Venezuela from exile in Spain, who has asserted intention to assume the presidency on the slated Inauguration Day on January 10, 2025.