Current Situation: Bolivian President Luis Arce declared a “national disaster” on September 30 to intensify response against widespread forest fires, largely in Santa Cruz and Beni. Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued red alerts, the highest on a three-tier scale, for strong winds in parts of southern Alberta, Manitoba, Nunavut, and Quebec and snowfall for parts of British Columbia and Nunavut on October 1. In Mexico, operations at Aeropuerto Internacional General Juan N Alvarez (ACA) in Acapulco, Guerrero will remain limited to emergency flights and nine highways completely closed in the aftermath of Tropical Storm John as of October 1. The US National Weather Service (NWS) has issued flash flood warning for central Virginia; high wind warnings for parts of Arkansas; excessive heat warnings in parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada; and freeze warnings in parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Oregon, Montana, and Wyoming as of October 1. Widespread power outages in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene are reported across Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia on October 1. Further, all roads in western NC will remain closed on October 1. 

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in the aforementioned parts of Bolivia, Canada, Mexico, and the USA on October 1 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather related risks. 

Current Situation: According to reports, pro-global peace organizations Mundo Sin Guerras y Sin Violencia and La Universidad Nacional Estatal a Distancia (UNED) announced the third commemorative “La Marcha por la Paz y la Noviolencia” (World March for Peace and Nonviolence March) in San Jose on October 2. Demonstrators will gather at the Universidad Para la Paz (UPAZ) in Ciudad Colon at 09:00 (local time) and reach Asamblea Legislativa by 14:30, via Ruta 121, San Juan de Dios Hospital, and Avenida Central boulevard. Other events are slated at the legislature from 15:30 onwards. The march is being organized to denounce international conflict and demand a peaceful world.  

Assessments & Forecast: Given social media traction, the slated march is expected to witness a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid thousands.  Based on precedent, the march is expected to transpire peacefully. Regardless, bolstered security presence can be anticipated near the aforementioned locations and along the march route to monitor proceedings and establish ad-hoc road closures and detours. Significant disruptions to both pedestrian and vehicular travel are likely in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations throughout the day. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in San Jose on October 2 are advised to allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations throughout the day due to the slated march.

Current Situation: Multiple university faculty and students’ unions have called for a nationwide ‘federal university march’ on October 2, to protest the anticipated veto of the University Financing Law by President Javier Milei. In Buenos Aires, the protest will commence from the Facultad de Derecho of the Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) at 12:45 (local time), passing through the Plaza Dr Bernardo Houssay at 14:00, and arriving at Plaza del Congreso at 18:00. In Cordoba, a mobilization is slated at the Monumento de la Reforma at 12:00, from where protesters will march towards Patio Olmos in Centro at 13:00. In Rosario, demonstrators will gather at Plaza Montenegro from 17:00 onwards and march towards the Monumento Historico Nacional a la Bandera. 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on precedent, the protest in Buenos Aires will likely draw a turnout in the low-to-mid thousands, and in the mid-to-high hundreds in Cordoba and Rosario. Protests will transpire largely peacefully. Nevertheless, bolstered security measures can be expected at the slated locations and along march routes to monitor proceedings. Additionally, localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated near protest locations. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Argentina on October 2 are advised to allot for disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic near the aforementioned locations due to the slated protests. 

Current Situation: Healthcare workers’ collective Federacion Sindical Nacional de Trabajadores y Trabajadoras de la Salud (FESINTRAS) have announced nationwide strikes on October 2-3. The labor actions are being held as part of nationwide mobilizations by university workers’ unions to denounce budget cuts to the health and education sectors. Associated demonstrations have been announced in Buenos Aires on October 2-3. On October 2, protestors will march from Hospital Garrahan to Plaza del Congreso from 13:00 (local time) and on October 3, protestors will march from Ministerio de Salud de la Nacion to Plaza de Mayo at 09:00.  

Assessments & Forecast: Given FESINTRAS’ mobilization capabilities, the labor action is expected to be widely adhered to, disrupting healthcare services on October 2-3. Emergency services are unlikely to be majorly impacted. Based on social media traction and previous FESINTRAS demonstrations, associated protests will likely draw turnouts in the mid-hundreds to low-thousands. Protests are expected to transpire peacefully. Regardless, a bolstered security presence can be expected at the aforementioned locations to monitor proceedings and divert traffic. Consequently, disruptions to traffic can be anticipated near the protest locations. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Argentina on October 2-3 are advised to allot for disruptions to healthcare services due to the slated labor action. Those operating or residing in Buenos Aires on October 2-3 are advised to allot for travel disruptions near protest locations. 

Current Situation: American Postal Workers’ Union (APWU) is calling for protests nationwide on October 1. Protests will be held at the Joseph Curseen Junior and Thomas Morris Junior Processing and Distribution Center in Washington DC, at 10:00, at James A Farley Post Office in New York City, NY, at 11:00, at Roseland Station at 11033 South State Street at 11:00 in Chicago, IL at 11:00. Per the APWU website, unionized postal workers seek higher staffing, more participation in Postal Board of Governors hearings, and increased concessions to their demands in contract negotiations.  

Assessments & Forecast: Based on the precedent of individual rallies by postal workers including in  Minneapolis, MN on January 6 and in Detroit in July, the slated protests are likely to draw a turnout in the high dozens-to-low hundreds. Precedent dictates that these protests are likely to transpire peacefully, without any instances of unrest. Consequently, while no notable security reinforcements are expected in the vicinity of most protests, a minimal security presence is expected outside the Washington DC protest location. In addition, localized disruptions to traffic can be anticipated near the protest locations. 

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in the aforementioned cities in the USA on October 1 are advised to allot for disruptions due to the slated postal workers’ protests. 

Current Situation: Per September 30 reports, Minister of Government, Eduardo del Castillo implicated Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party councilor, Rosario CR for smuggling 192 weapons, recently seized at Aeropuerto Internacional Viru Viru (VVI) in Santa Cruz on September 20. Castillo also mentioned a possible connection between the arms smuggling and the protests led by Evo Morales from September 17-23. 

Assessment & Forecast: While the link between evistas and smuggled weapons remains unfounded at the time of writing, should such claims be confirmed, there is a high likelihood for the development to trigger protests against Morales. Alternatively, the alleged link made by Castillo is also likely to be perceived as an institutional-led crackdown against the evistas, given that this follows President Luis Arce’s referendum proposals that seeks to limit presidential re-election terms, effectively disqualifying Morales, in addition to previous court rulings that have invalidated Morales’ candidacy for the 2025 elections. Regardless of the incident’s connection to Morales, the operation reiterates the persistent trend of VVI airport being used to smuggle both narcotics and arms, with similar raids being conducted on a regular basis. 

Current Situation: On September 27, authorities charged four suspects for a September 6 car theft near the intersection of Winston Churchill Boulevard and Eglinton Avenue in Mississauga, ON. A fifth suspect, who fled in a stolen Porsche SUV after running over the owner, had surrendered earlier. 

Assessments & Forecast: This incident highlights the persistent trend of vehicle thefts, including luxury brands like Porsche, Audi, and BMW, nationwide and in ON. This is buttressed by the theft of over 70,000 vehicles in Canada in 2023, with nearly 30,000 of these thefts reported in ON. Although vehicle thefts declined by 17 percent between January-June, compared to the same period in 2023, auto theft incidents and carjackings remain high, with the latter increasing by 106 percent during the same period. Considering the lucrative nature of vehicle thefts, such incidents targeting high-end vehicles can be expected to persist in affluent neighbourhoods of major cities such as Greater Toronto Area, Missisauga, Brampton, Calgary, Montreal, and Vancouver, especially during late night or early morning hours, given general trends. These incidents also carry the potential to escalate, with criminals sometimes being armed. 

Current Situation: On September 29, the leader of the Magdalena Medio block of the Clan del Golfo (AGC), alias ‘Zeus,’ was allegedly killed alongside seven other AGC members and a civilian in a security operation in Pocitos, Aquitania district, Antioquia.  

Assessments & Forecast: The incident comes amid rising AGC influence in Antioquia, with AGC present in 66 of the 125 municipalities as of September 8. The targeted strike against ‘Zeus’ underscores sustained security operations in Antioquia, especially in the wake of extensive search operations launched after Zeus’ escape from a high-security prison in Norte de Santander in April. The killing of a major faction leader could potentially weaken AGC presence in Antioquia, allowing rival groups like Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (ELN) to encroach on AGC territory, prompting inter-group clashes, as witnessed in Segovia municipality on September 22, resulting in civilian casualties. Additionally, in retaliation to the September 29 incident, AGC will likely perpetrate shooting and explosive attacks targeting army installations and patrol in Antioquia over the coming weeks, with the February 16 arrest of three AGC members prompting an attack and deaths of four soldiers. 

Current Situation: According to September 29 reports, killings by suspects on motorcycles have increased by 426 percent since 2021. As per official data, 43 such homicides were recorded in 2021, 115 in 2022 and 226 in 2023. On September 25, an individual was reportedly shot to death by two motorcyclists outside his residence in San Martin de Nicoya. 

Assessments & Forecast: These developments reflect the frequent use of shootings by motorcyclists in attempted homicides, generally involving the settling of scores or other disputes between organized crime members. The significant rise in such a modus operandi is specifically notable since it comes amid a historic increase in violent crime in the country, with a record of almost 907 homicides in 2023. Furthermore, a recent incident of a 15-year-old accidentally being killed in a shooting by suspects on a motorcycle outside a restaurant in Sabanilla de Alajuela on September 15 demonstrates the risk posed to bystanders despite these motorcycle shootings being targeted incidents. Violent crime is thus expected to remain a security risk in the near term despite anti-crime proposals such as limiting the use of motorcycles. 

Current Situation: According to the Ecuadorian Army’s statements, during an operation soldiers disabled mine entrances and seized 2,800 explosive capsules, 1,800 blocks of hydrogel explosives, and 750 bags of gold material, in Carmen de Pijilí and Pucul sectors.  

Assessments & Forecast: The security operation underscores the authorities’ efforts to combat and disrupt illegal mining activities while strengthening security in the region, particularly in Camilo Ponce Enríquez Canton, which has become a strategic hub for gangs involved in illegal mining due to its significant role in gold processing. Since the start of 2024, violence in these areas has claimed 49 lives, according to the National Police. Both gang members and mining supervisors have been killed for refusing to cooperate with rival gangs such as Los Lobos and Saobox, both vying for control over lucrative mining operations. Since September 12, following a violent attack on a mining site, authorities intensified operations, deploying 200 soldiers in a large-scale military effort to curb illegal mining as part of a 60-day state of emergency declared in August. Additional such operations are expected amid efforts to reduce illicit activities in the region.