Current Situation: On October 10, multiple trade unions including the Confederation General Travail Martinique – Societe Aeroport Martinique Aime Cesaire (CGTM-SAMAC), are slated to hold a protest near the Aeroport International Martinique Aime Cesaire (FDF) airport in Le Lamentin, Fort-de-France. The protest is being held to denounce the ongoing department-wide cost of living crisis and demand a 10 percent wage increase and better working conditions.  

Assessments & Forecast: Protests have been recurring department-wide over similar issues since September 1, including multiple protests nationwide on October 9 with a turnout in the low-to-mid hundreds at each location and in the low-to-mid thousands in Fort-de-France. Hence, the upcoming protest is expected to witness similar turnouts in the low-to-mid thousands. Amid heightened sentiments, the protest carries the potential to escalate into clashes between security forces, looting, and protesters and burning of buildings and vehicles, with protestors looting a supermarket near Fort-de-France and several security personnel injured department-wide on October 9. Given this, a heavily bolstered security is expected near the protest location to monitor proceedings. Further, travel disruptions are possible due to roadblocks on major thoroughfares.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Fort-de-France on October 10 are advised to avoid non-essential travel due to the potential for civil unrest near FDF. Allot for disruptions due to possible roadblocks on major thoroughfares.    

Current Situation: The Organizacion de Trabajadores de la Educacion del Paraguay Autentica Sindicato Nacional (OTEP-A) educators’ union has called for a nationwide mobilization to demand that employers comply with labor rights, job stability, and ensure improved services, including medicine and infrastructure, for workers. In Asuncion, a protest will be held in front of the Caja Central del Instituto de Prevision Social (IPS) located at the intersection of Constitucion and Silvio Pettirossi in Asuncion from 08:30 (local time) on October 11. 

Assessments & Forecast: Peaceful protests were recorded in Asuncion on July 4-5 over similar issues involving several groups, including OTEP-A, with turnouts in the mid-to-high hundreds. Given that the upcoming protest will witness the participation of only one group, it is expected to draw turnouts in the low-to-mid hundreds. Demonstrations in other departments are anticipated to draw lower turnouts in the low-to-mid dozens. The demonstration is likely to transpire peacefully, but will, nonetheless, prompt a bolstered security presence in the area to monitor proceedings. Consequently, localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are expected near the Caja Central del IPS during the morning hours. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Asuncion on October 11 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of the Caja Central del IPS due to the scheduled demonstration during the morning hours. 

Current Situation: Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Siesta Key on Florida’s west coast during the evening hours (local time) on October 9, following which it weakened to Category 2. Milton is currently moving toward the east-northeast at 26 kmph (16 mph). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has forecasted that Milton will maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida during the overnight hours on October 10-11. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued flash flood warnings, in effect, for parts of northern and central Florida at least until 08:00 (local time) on October 10. Flood warnings are issued for Florida’s west coast. Over 2.6 million customers are impacted by ongoing power outages in Florida, with Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota counties being most affected. Road and bridge closures are ongoing in multiple parts of Florida, the details of which can be found here. Meanwhile, the Bahamas Department of Meteorology has issued a tropical storm warning for the islands of the Northern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama, Abacos, and Bimini until October 11. In response, schools on these islands will remain closed until October 11.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Bahamas, Florida, USA, and the Bahamas on October 10 and over the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates and avoid non-essential travel in the aforementioned locations due to storm-related risks.

Current Situation: Partido Socialismo y Libertad (PSL), a left-wing opposition party, plans to stage a pro-Palestinian protest at Plaza de la Juventud – Bellas Artes in Caracas at 16:00 (local time) on October 10. The protest action is also joined by Unidad Internacional de Trabajadoras y Trabajadores-Cuarta Internacional (UIT-CI), a transnational workers’ group. 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on the mobilization capabilities of the organizations, especially PSL and UID-CI, the demonstration is likely to draw a turnout in the low to mid hundreds. This is further supported by a turnout of several hundred at a pro-Palestinian demonstration on Francisco de Miranda Boulevard in Caracas on October 6. Given the precedent of recent pro-Palestinian protests in Caracas, especially the October 6 demonstration, the protest is likely to transpire peacefully. Nonetheless, bolstered security to monitor the proceedings and manage traffic can be anticipated at the protest location. Consequently, disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected at Plaza de la Juventud during the afternoon and evening hours. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Caracas on October 10 are advised to allot for disruptions to traffic near Plaza de la Juventud due to the slated protest from 16:00 onwards. 

Current Situation: As per October 8 reports, four foreigners were robbed by armed suspects on 800 Wenceslao Villafane street near Bombonera Stadium in La Boca, Buenos Aires. The police chased the suspects who fled in a waiting car and later detained them.   

Assessments & Forecast: This incident highlights a persistent trend of piranha robberies or ‘robo pirana’ in Buenos Aires, in which multiple perpetrators target unsuspecting individuals, foreign tourists, or small establishments and conduct quick and coordinated armed robberies. This is evidenced by similar piranha robberies targeting restaurants recorded in Parque Chacabuco on July 27 and in Boedo on July 7. While the crimes appear opportunistic, the suspects’ use of waiting vehicles to flee the scene suggests that targeted individuals and establishments were possibly being monitored prior to the crime. Considering this, foreign tourists unfamiliar with the area or distracted while using mobile phones or cameras remain at elevated risk of being targeted for robo pirana. Public areas, streets, and restaurants with high footfall are expected to continue being hotspots for piranha robberies, considering that they provide the opportunity for easier robberies and quick escape.   

Current Situation: Sources indicate that on October 8, three suspects robbed a retail store in a shopping mall in Tanque, West Zone, Rio de Janeiro. The suspects entered the store selling electronics among other items, wearing municipal uniforms to prevent suspicion.  

Assessments & Forecast: This incident indicates an intermittent threat of armed robberies targeting businesses within shopping malls in Rio de Janeiro’s West Zone, as evidenced by the attempted robbery of a jewelry store at a mall in Barra da Tijuca that resulted in a shootout on June 25. Given precedent, suspects typically target businesses selling high-value merchandise like electronics and jewelry. With criminals resorting to disguises to avoid suspicion, security responses may be delayed, giving criminals time to escape, facilitated by the footfall and multiple exits in shopping malls. That said, there is heightened potential for escalation of violence during robbery attempts due to interventions of mall security or resistance of victims, likely to manifest as shootouts. Given this, stores selling high-value merchandise in shopping malls are expected to continue being targets for armed robberies while bystanders remain at elevated risk of spillover violence. 

Current Situation: Authorities issued an alert regarding the possible resurgence of Los Pelusos, a residual faction of the Ejercito Popular de Liberacion (EPL) criminal group disbanded in 1991, in Catatumbo, Norte de Santander. This follows the discovery of three dead bodies in Playa de Belen on October 5, with one of them being a Los Pelusos member. Additionally, as per the same reports, authorities recently arrested 11 Los Pelusos members.   

Assessments & Forecast: Los Pelusos’ reemergence appears to be credible based on the arrests. This suggests the subsequent revival of a longstanding territorial conflict of Los Pelusos with Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (ELN) and Estado Mayor Central – Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (EMC-FARC) dissidents in Catatumbo, a major coca cultivation area with key transnational drug trafficking routes. Hence, with Los Pelusos likely seeking to re-establish itself in former strongholds, targeted shootings, kidnappings, and extortions are anticipated in Catacumbo’s municipalities near the border with Venezuela, such as Ocana, Abrego, Sardinata, and Hacari, with authorities suggesting that Los Pelusos is already engaged in said crimes. Consequently, security operations and subsequent armed confrontations remain possible in Catatumbo. 

Current Situation: On October 9, Estado Mayor Central-Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (EMC-FARC) led by ‘Ivan Mordisco,’ announced a temporary suspension of offensive actions from October 11-November 6 due to the UN-led COP Summit in Cali, Valle del Cauca department, slated for October 21 to November 1.  

Assessments & Forecast: This follows the postponement of the summit on July 17 after Mordisco-led EMC-FARC dissidents threatened the event denouncing the government’s policies. Thus, the suspension now reflects a strategic pivot, possibly aimed at enhancing their legitimacy amid the increasing fallout of the peace negotiations with the government. Moreover, it is possible that increased government security and international attention during COP16 may have pressured the Mordisco-led factions to reconsider strategies, as any potential attacks on such a high-profile event could have resulted in stricter and immediate dismantling of their groups. Furthermore, the Mordisco dissidence has experienced fragmentation since mid-March, which may have resulted in different factions advocating varying approaches to offensive strategies. Despite this, the underlying tensions and ambiguous motivations of the Mordisco dissidence indicate that the potential for violence by differing factions likely remains.  

Current Situation: Unidentified assailants attacked workers at a mechanic workshop on Calle Norte 9 in Celaya, Guanajuato, resulting in four killed on October 8. The suspects pursued two employees in a vehicle, leading to a collision before opening fire. The suspect later entered the workshop and shot two additional individuals. 

Assessments & Forecast: This incident is likely linked to extortion rackets or ongoing turf wars. The latter seems more plausible amid the potentially escalating turf war between Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) and Cartel Santa Rosa de Lima (CSRL) in Guanajuato in recent days, because small businesses in cartel hotspots could be associated with a criminal group. Evidence of this includes a shooting at a bar on Avenida Manuel Doblado in Celaya on October 5, with the establishment suspected to be connected to criminal groups according to unconfirmed reports. With this, in the near term, there is a high risk of targeted shootings at small and informal enterprises, including restaurants and bars, connected to a rival cartel or hosting rival cartel members in Guanajuato, including Celaya and Salamanca.  

Current Situation: According to October 9 reports, a member of Cartel de la Virgen was arrested on Apatzingan–Acahuato highway in Apatzingan. This cartel is known for kidnapping and extortion, particularly targeting lemon producers in the Tierra Caliente region.

Assessments & Forecast: The latest arrest underscores bolstered security efforts against cartel-led extortion, especially following President Claudia Sheinbaum’s 100-day action plan, including the October 8 announcement of deploying forces to protect lemon farmers in Apatzingan. Given the persistence of brazen extortion practices by groups like Cartel de la Virgen, Los Viagras, La Nueva Familia Michoacana, and Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) targeting lemon and avocado farmers, increased arrests of cartel members are likely going forward. Over 5,000 individuals fled Aguililla and Buenavista communities in 2023 due to extortion. With anticipated intensified security operations in Apatzingan and nearby towns in the coming weeks alongside continued extortion threat, insecurity is likely to be prolonged. There is an increased threat of clashes between cartel members and security units as well as retaliatory narco-blockades by cartels in the near-to-medium term amid enhanced security measures.