Current Situation: The Asociacion de Trabajadores del Estado (ATE) state workers’ union called for a 36-hour national strike from October 29-30. An associated protest march is slated from the Obelisco to the Ministerio de Desregulacion y Transformacion del Estado on Avenida Roque Saenz Pena 788 in Buenos Aires on October 29. Both the national strike and the protest march will commence at 12:00 (local time). The protest actions are to denounce authorities’ proposed layoffs of public sector workers on October 23. 

Assessments & Forecast: Given precedent, the labor action is expected to be widely adhered to, potentially causing disruptions to government and public-sector services, including healthcare and municipal operations. Based on ATE’s past protests, the associated protest in Buenos Aires will likely draw a turnout in the high-hundreds to low-thousands. Considering the heightened sentiments over the issue, a latent potential for localized scuffles between security forces and protesters remains. A bolstered security presence is anticipated near Ministerio de Desregulacion y Transformacion del Estado to monitor proceedings. Moreover, significant disruptions to traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of the march locations on October 29. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Buenos Aires on October 29 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for traffic disruptions due to the potential for localized scuffles between protestors and security personnel during the slated march. Allot for disruptions to public and government services due to the labor action on October 29-30.

Current Situation: The public electricity utility company Empresa Electrica de la Habana announced scheduled power outages in the capital from 10:00-14:00 (local time), effective from October 28-November 3. The power cuts will be enforced on a rotation basis across Havana, which has been divided into four blocks. Each block will experience a power cut on a designated day. Further, the company notified that in case of an emergency shutdown of the generating plants, a 12-hour blackout could be implemented, affecting three four-hour blocks between 10:00-22:00. The information regarding the slated power cuts, emergency power cuts, and rotation slots can be found here (in Spanish). The scheduled power outages come amid the nationwide energy crisis that began following the total collapse of the power grid on October 18.   

Recommendation: Those operating or residing in Havana from October 28-November 3 are advised to allot for service disruptions due to the slated power outages and remain cognizant of authorities’ updates. 

Current Situation: The Trinidad and Tobago Electricity Commission (T&TEC) has announced scheduled power cuts across various areas nationwide due to planned maintenance works on October 28-30. On October 28, power outages are planned in Tabaquite and Marabella from 08:00-16:00 (local time) and in Santa Rosa from 09:00-12:00. On October 29, power outages are planned in Port of Spain from 08:00-16:00, in Talparo, Arima, and Maracas from 09:00-15:00 and in Cunupia from 09:00-16:00. On October 30, power outages are slated from 07:00-08:00 and 16:00-17:00 in Zone 1 of Saddle Road, Maraval and from 07:00-17:00 in Zone 2 of Saddle Road, Maraval. The maintenance work in Zone 2 will also include traffic restrictions for vehicles heading north along Saddle Road between Nock Road and Riverview Terrace. On the same day, power outages are slated from 09:00-15:00 in Arima. Additional details can be found here. 

Recommendation: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas of Trinidad and Tobago on October 28-30 during the slated hours are advised to allot for disruptions to power supply due to the slated outages.

Current Situation: As per reports, Vice-President and the Democrat presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, event is scheduled from 19:00 (local time) to 21:00. The entry for the event is expected to begin at 15:00.  The associated security arrangements and road closures have not been announced at the time of writing.  

Assessments & Forecast: Officials have reportedly estimated that the slated Harris rally is expected to draw a turnout of approximately 20,000 attendees. The rally is expected to transpire peacefully given the expected extensive security measures including the presence of aerial assets and K9 units. Counter-protests are expected drawing turnouts ranging between the high-dozens to low-hundreds. These demonstrations carry latent potential for scuffles between demonstrators and police. Hence, should the protests escalate into disruptions, the authorities are expected to disperse crowds using tear gas and water cannons, and arrest protesters. That said, expected security measures along the Ellipse, alongside any potential ad-hoc road closures or security checkpoints, are likely to significantly disrupt pedestrian and vehicular traffic near the rally location. 

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in Washington, DC on October 29 are advised to allot for disruptions near the Ellipse due to the slated political rally from the afternoon hours onwards. 

Current Situation: As per October 27 reports, suspects shot at vehicle carrying former President Evo Morales on the Villa Tunari-Lauca road in Cochabamba department on October 27. Morales’ driver was the only individual who sustained an injury. Subsequently on the same day, a group of demonstrators entered a military barracks in Villa Tunari and located and burned the vehicles used by allegedly used by the perpetrators. 

Assessments & Forecast: While authorities have yet to confirm the events, the assassination attempt highlights the elevated political tensions within the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party as well as the ongoing economic crisis. This is supported by 10-20 blockades installed by Evistas (Morales’ supporters) since October 14, resulting in fuel and food shortages. Consequently, the attempt was likely perpetrated by anti-Morales groups, such as the Resistencia Juvenil Cochala (RJC), which has been linked to various acts of violence after Morales was declared President in 2019 and recent anti-Morales protests in Cochabamba. With the incident galvanizing support for Morales, pro-Morales protests are likely to intensify, including persistent blockades and a potential for a protest in La Paz or El Alto. 

Current Situation: Reports indicate that security forces seized, and safely detonated explosives found near the Baudo River in Pizarro, Bajo Baudo municipality, Choco Department. The explosives were tied to a crude raft alongside a flag alluding to the Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (ELN).   

Assessments & Forecast: This incident, along with October 25 report of alleged ELN members burning a bus after forcing passengers to alight in Carmen de Atrato municipality, appears to be aimed at intimidating civilians and spreading insecurity across Choco. These come amid the heightened conflict between ELN and Clan del Golfo (AGC) in Choco, fueled by the AGC’s expansion into ELN-dominated regions which prompted the ELN to declare an indefinite armed strike on August 11 in four municipalities. Given the ongoing insecurity, intermittent threats to civilians, including attacks on perceived rival turfs, are likely to continue as the armed groups seek to coerce compliance and establish territorial dominance. This could also manifest as forced civilian lockdowns, restricting transportation and economic services. Additionally, security presence is likely to be bolstered across Choco, heightening the risk of confrontations between armed groups and security forces.

Current Situation: On October 27, Antioquia governor Andres Julian Rendon, confirmed that a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter of the National Police was shot at in Quebradona, Anori municipality, Antioquia department. The helicopter, involved in a mission of the Las Companias Antinarcoticos Jungla (anti-drug trafficking police units), carried 24 personnel who were unharmed.  

Assessments & Forecast: The attack was likely carried out by either the 36th Front of Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia dissidents or the Clan del Golfo (CdG), both of which maintain strong operational capabilities in rural northeastern Antioquia, particularly around Anori and Amalfi. These groups are involved in a sustained conflict for control over illegal gold mining, a lucrative revenue source for criminal organizations. This incident also follows a pattern of attacks against security forces in Antioquia, often involving explosive devices. Nevertheless, such attacks are sporadic and occur with less frequency than those targeting security personnel in the southwestern regions of Colombia. Nonetheless, this also underscores the vulnerability of aircrafts in conflict zones, as evidenced by similar attacks in Cauca on May 2 and July 11 amid heightened tensions with FARC dissident factions.

Current Situation: On October 26, a severed human head, which reportedly belonged to a high-ranking leader of Cartel de Sinaloa’s (CDS) Los Chapitos faction, was found near Parque 87 in Culiacan, Sinaloa. A message by rival CDS faction, La Mayiza, threatening Los Chapitos, was also found at the crime scene. This follows the October 24 discovery of a Los Chapitos-signed narcomanta in the same location threatening La Mayiza leader El Mayito.    

Assessments & Forecast: The beheading appears to be a direct response to Los Chapitos’ narcomanta, which threatened to hand over El Mayito to US authorities similar to the July 25 arrest of his father, El Mayo Zambada. Hence, this highlights Culiacan’s deteriorating security landscape amid the growing La Maziya-Los Chapitos rivalry, with over 21 homicides recorded between October 25-26 alone. The narcomanta’s claims of having “sent” the Mexican army to capture La Mayiza ringleader, alias El Max, on October 21, reiterates reports of alleged collusion between Los Chapitos and government channels. To this end, recurring attacks against high-ranking members of rival factions can be expected, triggering armed clashes across Sinaloa over the coming days. 

Current Situation: Reports indicate that the homicides include a shootout between two groups in Colonia Indeco, in Villahermosa, which left four dead. Another armed confrontation broke out in front of a nightclub in Colonia Florida, in Villahermosa, without leaving casualties. Three people were killed during a family party in Zapotal de Comalcalco.  

Assessments & Forecast: These incidents mark Tabasco surpassing 60 homicides in the first month of the Governor Javier May’s administration. These homicides come in line with an upsurge in violence in Tabasco since October 22, when multiple instances of looting, robberies and arson attacks were reported in Villahermosa. This is likely attributed to some of the drug cartels operating in Tabasco, such as the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), or local groups such as La Barredora (LB) or Cartel Tabasco Nueva Generacion (CTNG). Governor May’s administration is likely to intensify its efforts to curb cartel-related violence through increased intelligence, rather than just intensified patrols. While May has reportedly claimed this violence comes amid an overall “downturn,” however, no additional data was provided, with additional such targeted violence likely to recur.

Current Situation: As per October 27 reports, China-affiliated hackers obtained audio from phone calls of US political officials, including an unnamed campaign adviser of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. The advisor’s unencrypted communications were also hacked.  

Assessments & Forecast: The reports indicate intensifying cyberattacks targeting political officials in the USA, as also buttressed by reports highlighting attempts to hack phones of individuals associated with the campaign of Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, Trump, and the Republican vice-presidential candidate JD Vance. Recurring cyber threats from China, Russia, and Iran are anticipated to remain heightened ahead of the November 5 presidential elections amid plausible attempts to gather intelligence, shift public opinion to align with their own strategic interests, and thereby influence election results. This coupled with attempts by Chinese organizations to compromise the security of several US telecommunications firms in recent months for wiretapping purposes, per October 8 reports, will likely exacerbate the ongoing US-China bilateral trade tensions. This is buttressed by US imposing sanctions on China on March 25 amid allegations of cyberespionage campaigns that compromised data of millions of individuals, government institutions, and trade secrets.