The following report reviews current events in the Europe and the Americas region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Americas

• Ecuador: Gangs allegedly use aerial-borne explosive to target prison in Guayaquil on September 13; reflects threat of inter-gang violence
• Guatemala: Anti-government protests to be held nationwide from 07:00 (local time) on September 15; maintain heightened vigilance
• USA: Individual detained for possessing illegal weapons in Washington, DC on September 14; highlights elevated right-wing extremist activity

Europe

• Bulgaria: President Radev to dissolve Parliament, appoint caretaker government on September 16; highlights ongoing political crisis
• Norway: Stoere-led AP wins 49 seats in Storting with 99.7 percent votes counted in September 13 election; coalition talks to ensue
• Poland: Anti-lockdown protest to be held at Plac Trzech Krzyzy in Warsaw at 16:00 (local time) on September 15; maintain vigilance

Americas: CDC issues Level 4 Travel Health Warnings for multiple countries due to COVID-19 on September 14; remain cognizant of updates

Brazil suspended negotiations regarding the additional 30 million doses of China’s Coronavac vaccine. In El Salvador, children between the ages of 6-11 years will receive the COVID-19 vaccination. In St Vincent and the Grenadines, authorities recorded the first case of the COVID-19 Gamma variant on September 13. In the USA, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) added multiple countries to its Level 4 list of “very high” risk for travel countries. Additionally, the CDC added the COVID-19 vaccination to the list of immunization requirements for all green card and immigrant visa applicants, beginning October 1. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced that government agencies in the state that require mandatory COVID-19 vaccination as a condition of employment will be fined 5,000 USD. In Washington, State Patrol troopers, firefighters, and other state employees filed a lawsuit against Governor Jay Inslee over ‘religious exemptions’ in the state’s vaccine mandate. In Venezuela, flexible quarantine measures will be in force from September 13-19 as part of the country’s COVID-19 response program. The flexible rules do not apply to Apure, Bolivar, Tachira, and Zulia.

Those operating or residing in the Americas on September 14 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures.

Guatemala: Anti-government protests to be held nationwide from 07:00 (local time) on September 15; maintain heightened vigilance

The Comite de Desarrollo Campesino (CODECA) right group has called for nationwide anti-government protests from 07:00 (local time) on September 15. The demonstrations are organized to renounce the commemoration of 200 years of the independence of Guatemala and demand the resignation of President Alejandro Giammattei and Deputy Magistrate of the Constitutional Court Maria Consuelo Porras. Demonstrations are planned in San Marcos, Santa Rosa, Izabal, Quiche, Jutiapa, Chiquimula, Guatemala City, Retalhuleu, Baja Verapaz and Alta Verapaz departments. However, specific protest locations remain unconfirmed.

Based on the mobilization capabilities of CODECA, the demonstrations are expected to witness turnouts ranging in the mid-to-high hundreds. Given precedent and the protest nature, the demonstrations carry an elevated potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and the police. In the event of unrest, authorities are likely to resort to forcible dispersal methods. Police are expected to be deployed in bolstered numbers throughout major cities, including Guatemala City. Significant disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian movements are expected in the vicinity of all protests, with protesters liable to erect road blockades throughout the day.

Those operating or residing in Guatemala, including Guatemala City, on September 15 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of all protests due to the elevated potential for unrest and allot for traffic disruptions.

Honduras: CGT union calls for protest at Morazan Boulevard, Tegucigalpa on September 15; maintain vigilance

Reports indicate that the Central General de Trabajadores (CGT) trade union will hold a protest march in Tegucigalpa on September 15. Protesters will gather at Morazan Boulevard. The march is being held to denounce the violation of social and human rights among other issues. As of writing, the timing of the protest remains unconfirmed.

Based on the mobilizational capacity of the group, the protest march is likely to draw turnouts in the low-to-mid hundreds. Based on precedent, the protest carries the potential for unrest in the form of clashes between the police and protesters. In such an event, authorities are expected to use forced dispersal methods, including tear gas, and conduct mass arrests. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed in the vicinity of Morazan Boulevard to monitor proceedings and ensure compliance with COVID-19 guidelines. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are also anticipated along the route of the protest march during the slated protest.

Those operating or residing in Tegucigalpa on September 15 are advised to allot for disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic in the vicinity of Morazan Boulevard due to the slated protest.

Uruguay: PIT-CNT to hold strike, protest from Palacio Legislativo, Montevideo at 11:00 (local time) on September 15; allot for disruptions

Reports indicate that the Plenario Intersindical de Trabajadores Convencion Nacional de Trabajadores (PIT-CNT) union has called for a nationwide 24-hour labor strike starting 09:00 (local time) on September 15. An associated protest over wages and working conditions will be held in Montevideo at the Palacio Legislativo from 11:00, following which protesters will march to Libertador Avenue.

Based on the mobilization capacity of the union, the strike is likely to be widely adhered to during the slated timings, resulting in potential disruptions to public transportation services. The protest in Montevideo is expected to draw turnouts in the low-to-mid hundreds. The protest is likely to transpire largely peacefully without any instances of widespread unrest. However, scuffles between protesters and the police along the route of the rally cannot be ruled out. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected in the vicinity of the protest locations to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are liable to occur along the route of the protest march from the morning hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in Montevideo on September 14 are advised to allot for transport disruptions due to the strike and along the route of the protest march from the morning hours onwards.

USA: Hurricane Nicholas’ downgraded to tropical storm as it makes landfall in Texas on September 14; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Nicholas has been downgraded to a tropical storm as it makes landfall in Texas. It is forecast to continue in this direction through September 15. The tropical storm is expected to move over southwestern Louisiana during the later hours (local time) of September 15. Heavy rainfall and flash floods are forecast in southeastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through September 15. Details on the forecast path of Tropical Storm Nicholas can be found here. In Louisiana, Governor John Bel Edwards has decreed a State of Emergency (SoE). Over 95,000 customers have been affected by power outages across the state. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott announced an SoE on September 13 for 17 counties. Several airports in Houston canceled flights on September 13, however, operations are expected to resume on September 14. Given the inclement weather conditions, widespread power outages, disruptions to air traffic and travel, and road closures can be anticipated on September 14-15 in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in the USA on September 14 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of local authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks.

Ecuador: Gangs allegedly use aerial-borne explosive to target prison in Guayaquil on September 13; reflects threat of inter-gang violence

Three explosions were reported at El Litoral prison in Guayaquil amid an attack with an aerial-borne explosive on September 13. No physical injuries were reported, although the attack caused infrastructural damage to the prison’s roof. After the explosions, the inmates climbed the prison’s roofs and shot at the device in an attempt to destroy it. Police have stated that the attack was likely intended to target the gang leaders in the prison.

The attack highlights the heightened risk of inter-gang violence at Ecuador’s prisons, as evidenced by a series of prison riots leading to the death of 79 prisoners in February 2021 and 22 in July of the same year. That said, the nature of the attack is notable given the unprecedented use of such devices by local gangs and reflects the increased level of sophistication of criminal groups’ activities. While the risk of similar attacks using weaponized aerial devices remains relatively low as of writing, police are expected to bolster measures across the country’s prisons to avert possible similar incidents, as well as large-scale riots, amid the continued rivalry between gangs.

USA: Individual detained for possessing illegal weapons in Washington, DC on September 14; highlights elevated right-wing extremist activity

On September 13, the United States Capitol Police (USCP) arrested Donald Craighead, a Californian resident for possessing illegal weapons in Washington, DC. Craighead’s truck was painted with white supremacist and neo-Nazi symbols. During the interrogation, Craighead began talking about white supremacist ideology. The incident comes ahead of the September 18 “Justice for J6” rally, organized to demand that charges against individuals who were allegedly involved in the January 6 Capitol riot be dropped.

The incident reflects the increased risk of domestic far-right extremism, with a resurgence of extremist activity liable to be witnessed ahead of the Justice for J6 rally, as also evidenced by the August 19 bomb threat. Given this, the potential of right-wing lone-wolf attacks in the form of shootings, stabbings, and vehicular ramming remains elevated in the days leading up to the demonstration both within Washington, DC and nationally. Considering the upcoming rally, the USCP will deploy a significantly bolstered security force in the vicinity of key government buildings in Washington DC, with pre-emptive road closures and random security checks across the capital also likely.

Europe: Countries extend domestic restrictions as COVID-19 cases increase on September 14; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

In the Czech Republic, authorities announced that only one dose of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine will be sufficient for individuals who have recovered from COVID-19. In Greece, authorities will begin to administer the third COVID-19 booster shot to individuals above the age of 60 with compromised immune systems, starting from September 14. In Kosovo, authorities have extended nationwide COVID-19 restrictions until September 31. In Lithuania, individuals without the national COVID-19 certificates are restricted from accessing non-essential services and business establishments.  In the Netherlands, effective from September 25, indoor events including concerts and other cultural performances can be held without fixed seating and with a 75 percent capacity limit. In Spain, effective from September 20, authorities in Madrid will lift restrictions on the operation hours of hotels and nightlife establishments. In the UK, authorities in England announced that all individuals between the ages of 12-15 will be eligible for the vaccine against COVID-19. In Ukraine, the government introduced the COVID-19 “vaccine passports” on September 13. The passport verifies citizens’ vaccination, testing, and recovery status.

Those operating or residing in Europe on September 14 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures.

Netherlands: Childcare employees to hold strike, associated protest at Malieveld in The Hague on September 14; allot for disruptions

The Federatie Nederlandse Vakbeweging (FNV) union has called for a second National Day of Strike for employees in childcare facilities in The Hague. An associated protest will be held at Malieveld at an unspecified time. The protest is being held to denounce the existing working conditions of employees in the childcare sector. Protesters also intend to demonstrate outside hundreds of childcare facilities in the city throughout the day.

Based on the organizer’s estimates, the protest at Malievled is expected to witness a turnout ranging in the high-hundreds to low-thousands, while the demonstrations outside childcare facilities are expected to draw crowds in the high dozens to low hundreds each. The protests are expected to transpire largely peacefully with no major instances of unrest. However, the possibility of localized scuffles between police and the protesters in the vicinity of Malieveld cannot be ruled out. A bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed in the vicinity of the protests to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of Malieveld during the slated protest.

Those operating or residing in The Hague on September 14 are advised to allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of Malieveld due to the slated protest.

Poland: Anti-lockdown protest to be held at Plac Trzech Krzyzy in Warsaw at 16:00 (local time) on September 15; maintain vigilance

A protest denouncing COVID-19 restrictions will take place in Warsaw on September 15. Protesters will gather at the Statue to Wincenty Witos in Plac Trzech Krzyzy at 16:00 (local time). According to reports, protesters will then march to the Sejm for an additional protest.

Based on organizers’ estimates, the protest is expected to witness a turnout in the low thousands. Considering the expected turnout, a bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed to monitor proceedings. Given heightened anti-government sentiments related to COVID-19-related measures, the protest carries with it a potential for unrest in the form of clashes between police and protesters. Police are liable to use forcible dispersal methods, including arrests, in the event of escalating unrest. Significant disruptions to both pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the protest locations from the afternoon hours onwards due to the slated protest, with police liable to divert traffic.

Those operating or residing in Warsaw on September 15 are advised to maintain vigilance and allot for disruptions to traffic in the vicinity of the abovementioned locations from the afternoon hours onwards.

UK: Protests, vigils against ongoing international arms fair to be held in London on September 14-16; maintain vigilance

Multiple events against the ongoing Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) arms fair are slated to be held in London on September 14-16. In addition to protests, smaller-scale vigils and gatherings have also been organized. Focal points include St Anne’s Roman Catholic Church on September 14, Friends House and Victoria Railway Station on September 15, and Royal Victoria Square and Cundy Park on September 16.

Given that vigils, exhibitions, and other events have been planned as part of the protest actions, the potential for disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic around the fair and event sites remains high on September 14-16. Public transport may be diverted in the vicinity of the arms fair. Access to London City Airport (LCY) may witness sporadic disruptions. Most smaller events are expected to transpire peacefully and without major incidents of unrest. However, the potential for isolated scuffles cannot be ruled out as protesters may block access to the fair. As such, a bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed in the vicinity of all the protests and the fair venue as a precaution.

Those operating or residing in London on September 14-16 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of the planned protests and allot for disruptions to travel.

Bulgaria: President Radev to dissolve Parliament, appoint caretaker government on September 16; highlights ongoing political crisis

According to September 13 reports, President Rumen Radev announced that the Parliament will be dissolved with a caretaker government to be set in place on September 16. Following divided electoral results in the previous elections held in April and July, the third round of elections will be held on November 14, with the Presidential and Parliamentary elections to be combined.

That the President has called for the dissolution of the Parliament highlights the ongoing political crisis in the country. The fact that the two previous elections produced divided electorates further supports this. Although former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov proposed a new candidate from the GERB party to run for the Parliamentary elections, it is unlikely that the party would secure a clear majority given its deteriorating popularity amid corruption allegations against Borissov in recent months. With former entertainer Slavi Trifonov’s Ima takov narod (ITN) party securing the second-highest number of votes in the July election, similar results in the upcoming elections are likely with the possibility of a functional coalition remaining low, given Trifinov’s stance against a coalition government.

Norway: Stoere-led AP wins 49 seats in Storting with 99.7 percent votes counted in September 13 election; coalition talks to ensue

The center-left Arbeiderpartiet (AP) party led by Jonas Gahr Stoere won 49 out of the 169 seats in the Storting in the September 13 elections. 99.7 percent of votes have been counted so far. Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s conservative Hoyre party secured 36 seats. According to reports, AP will enter into negotiations with the left-wing Sosialistisk Venstreparti (SV) and the centrist Senterpartiet, which secured 13 and 28 seats respectively to surpass the halfway mark of 85 seats in the Storting.

With policies concerning climate action dominating the electoral dynamics, the election results are likely, in part, a reflection of public discontent over Solberg’s push for a more gradual move away from oil and gas exploration, compared to her opposition. That the AP and its potential coalition partners hold differing positions over a range of issues, including on energy, taxation, and matters related to European integration, negotiations over a common program are expected to ensue. This is supported by Stoere not committing to halting oil exploration, unlike the SV. Regardless, Norway’s political stability is not expected to deteriorate.

September 15     

• El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua: Independence Day     
• Slovakia: Virgin Mary of the Seven Sorrows Day     

September 16     

• Mexico: Independence Day     
• Nicaragua: Public Sector Holiday     
• Saint Kitts & Nevis: National Heroes’ Day     

September 17     

• Chile: Fiestas Patrias     
• Italy: Transportation Strike     
• Nicaragua: Public Sector Holiday     
• UK: RMT strike     

September 18     

• Chile: Independence Day     
• Ireland: Protest in Dublin     
• Nicaragua: Public Sector Holiday     
• UK: Nationwide Freedom Rally     

September 19     

• Chile: Army Day     
• Ukraine: Pride in Kyiv     

September 20     

• Canada: Parliamentary Elections     
• St. Kitts & Nevis: Independence Day Holiday    

September 21    

• Belize: Independence Day    
• Malta: Independence Day   

September 22   

• Bulgaria: Independence Day

September 24 

• Dominican Republic: Lady of Mercedes Day
• Italy: Air Transportation Strike
• Trinidad and Tobago: Republic Day

September 26

• Germany: Bundestag election

September 27

• Paraguay: Battle of Boqueron Holiday

September 28

• Czech Republic: Czech Statehood Day