Current Situation – According to reports, pro-Ukrainian demonstrations will be held in Belgium and Switzerland on February 23. In Brussels, Belgium, a demonstration is slated to be held at Brussels-Centraal railway station from 17:00-18:00 (local time). In Zurich, Switzerland, a protest march is slated to be held from Helvetiaplatz beginning at 18:15. Following the initial gathering, demonstrators will march to Stadthausanlage where a rally will be held. Additionally in Switzerland, a demonstration is slated to be held at Marktplatz in Basel from 18:00-19:30. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on social media estimates, the demonstrations are liable to witness a turnout ranging from the high dozens to low hundreds each. Given the nature of the protest issue, the demonstrations are expected to transpire largely peacefully and without instances of major unrest. Regardless, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations as a security precaution and to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian travel are anticipated in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations during the slated timings. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Brussels and Zurich on February 23 are advised to allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations during the slated timings. 

Current Situation – As of February 22, farmers’ groups continue to hold protests across Europe. Farmers from Lithuania and Latvia announced their intent to join regionwide calls for protests near border crossings on February 22. In Poland, farmers continue to hold protests along the country’s border with Ukraine as of February 22. Counter-protests by Ukrainian truckers are also ongoing along the Rava-Ruska-Hrebenne, Krakovets-Korczowa, and Shehyni-Medika crossings. In Slovakia, farmers will hold protests nationwide on February 22, including in Bratislava. Further details are available here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given heightened sentiments, farmers’ mobilization is expected to continue across Europe until late February. Protests are likely to witness varying turnouts, ranging from the low hundreds in smaller cities and near border crossings, to the high thousands in larger cities. Border travel is expected to be significantly affected on February 22, with temporary disruptions to supply chains likely. The protests carry the risk of unrest in the form of isolated scuffles between protesters and the police. Significant disruptions to travel and business operations are anticipated in the vicinity of such demonstrations.   

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in the aforementioned countries in Europe on February 22 and in the coming days are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of farmers’ protests. 

Current Situation – The Sud-Rail union has called for a nationwide strike by railway switchmen from 11:00 (local time) on February 23 to 23:00 on February 24.  The strike has been organized to demand better working conditions. The strike is expected to impact the services of Societe Nationale des Chemins de Fer Francais (SNCF), France’s national railway operator. However, media reports suggest that the disruptions will be localized, with no other major unions having expressed support for the strike. The strike will coincide with winter school holidays. Passengers can check train schedules here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given the mobilization capabilities of the union, the labor action is anticipated to be adhered to. That said, with no other unions having expressed support for the strike, disruptions to rail services could be potentially limited. In the event of significant rail disruptions, overcrowding on other available public transport services is likely. Moreover, the demand for taxis and rental vehicles, as well as the use of private vehicles, is likely to increase.  Small-scale spontaneous demonstrations are liable outside railway stations and government buildings. Such demonstrations are likely to transpire peacefully.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in France on February 23-24  are advised to allot for limited disruptions to rail services due to the slated labor action.  

Current Situation – On February 23, an anti-fascist group is scheduled to hold a protest march from Bahnhofstrasse to Marktplatz in Pforzheim at 17:00 (local time). The protest has been organized to denounce the increase in right-wing extremism and is being held on the anniversary of the bombing of Pforzheim in 1945. 

Assessments & Forecast – Considering the mobilization capability of the organizing group, the slated protest is likely to witness a turnout of up to the low hundreds. Given the protest issue, there’s a potential for far-right counter-protests to be organized. As such, the protest carries the risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters, counter-protesters, and the police. With that, authorities are likely to deploy a bolstered security presence in the vicinity of the protest route. In the event of escalating unrest, police are likely to use forcible crowd dispersal methods, including conducting arrests. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated near the protest locations from the evening hours onwards.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Pforzheim on February 23 are advised to maintain vigilance and allot for travel-related disruptions near Marktplatz during the evening. 

Current Situation – On February 23, private and public sector workers will conduct a nationwide 24-hour strike in solidarity with Palestinians and against global conflicts in general, starting at 00:00 (local time). Regional, suburban, and long-distance train services will be affected. Additionally, hospital services will be disrupted, impacting operations and resulting in the cancelation of scheduled visits and tests. A demonstration has been scheduled in Milan on February 24 in solidarity with the Palestinians. The rally is expected to start at 14:30 from Piazzale Loreto and will end in Largo Cairoli. Details are available here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Considering the mobilizational capabilities of the organizing unions, the strike is likely to be widely adhered to. With that, disruptions to public services can be expected, impacting healthcare and government office services. Meanwhile, the slated rally is likely to garner a turnout in the mid to high thousands. Given the heightened sentiments surrounding the protest issue, the demonstration carries a latent potential for unrest. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement, including road closures and traffic diversions, should be anticipated near the protest route during afternoon hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Milan on February 24 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near the protest locations due to the latent potential for unrest. Allot for disruptions to travel and services due to the strike on February 23. 

Current Situation – On February 20, violent clashes were recorded during an opposition Partia Demokratike e Shqiperise (PD) party-led protest outside the Presidential Office Building on Bulevardi Deshmoret e Kombit in Tirana. Protesters threw stones and flares at police officers and damaged the Presidential Office Building’s fences. The protest, primarily denouncing alleged government corruption, also expressed solidarity with former Prime Minister and PD leader Sali Berisha, currently under house arrest in a corruption probe. Multiple opposition-led protests have been organized in recent months. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given the heightened anti-government sentiments, coupled with Berisha’s continuing popularity, opposition-led protests outside prominent government buildings, including Parliament, are expected to continue in the near term. This is especially so considering the protracted court proceedings associated with Berisha’s indictment. While no injuries were recorded on February 20, the use of petrol bombs suggests a growing threat of unrest at future protests, with authorities likely to further increase police presence at demonstrations. This, in turn, is liable to elevate the risk for violent clashes, as well as vandalism, with police to be more inclined towards forcible dispersal methods – including tear gas and arrests.  

Current Situation – On February 20, authorities in Estonia and Latvia announced that they arrested multiple individuals for carrying out criminal activities on the instructions of Russian intelligence agencies between December 2023 and February 2024. In Estonia, ten individuals were arrested for seeking to “spread fear and create tension in Estonian society”, including by vandalizing the vehicle of the Interior Minister and a journalist, as well as by defacing monuments. In Latvia, an individual was detained for desecrating a memorial site dedicated to Latvian soldiers who fought against the Soviet Union’s Army. 

Assessments & Forecast – While Russia is likely to continue denying the allegations, the developments are in line with its larger destabilization tactics targeting perceived unfriendly countries amid the Ukraine conflict. These tactics have the perceived advantage of exacerbating existing societal tensions by creating uncertainty and fear among the public. The use of criminal incidents in its destabilization campaign indicates that Moscow is adopting diverse hybrid warfare tactics, in addition to its traditional tactics of carrying out cyberattacks, bomb hoaxes, and disinformation campaigns. Tensions between Russia and the Baltic countries are expected to remain elevated. 

Current Situation – According to February 21 reports from a prominent western media agency, Iran has supplied Russia with an estimated 400 surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, capable of hitting targets up to 700 kilometers away. Unidentified Iranian officials reportedly stated that at least four missile shipments had been completed via sea and air transfer, with more due near term. While Ukrainian officials announced that they are currently verifying the claims, the Defense Ministries of Iran and Russia are yet to comment on the reports. 

Assessments & Forecast – The above, if confirmed, is notable, given that Moscow previously refrained from acquiring such missiles amid concerns that Western countries would respond by supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine. The development highlights sustained military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, supported by Iran’s continued supply of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Russia. Should the reported transfer be confirmed, the development is liable to significantly aid Russia in conducting more precision airstrikes targeting Ukraine, especially amid reports suggesting the unreliability of Russia’s current ballistic missiles stockpile, supplied by North Korea. Meanwhile, Ukraine will likely use the development to request more long-range missiles from the West. 

Current Situation – According to February 20 reports, crime in Barcelona increased by 8.6 percent in 2023 compared to 2022. Pickpocketing accounted for 48.1 percent of crime, with 100,944 incidents recorded – up 6.5 percent. Authorities voiced concern over an increase in sexual violence, with sexual assault increasing by 24.5 percent, while incidents of gender-based violence increased by 21.5 percent and domestic violence by 15 percent. Police activity also increased in Barcelona, with a 23 percent increase in arrests.  

Assessments & Forecast – Considering the crime rate is still 7.3 percent lower than in 2019, the figures are likely skewed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, authorities highlighted that tourism only reached pre-pandemic levels in 2023. That pickpocketing accounted for 48.1 percent of crimes also supports this, given that Barcelona is a highly attractive tourist destination and, as such, a target for petty criminals. That said, the increase in sexual violence is notable and is in line with nationwide trends, with 40 femicides recorded in the first seven months of 2023. While the figures do not suggest a deteriorating security landscape, authorities will continue bolstering police presence – especially in nightlife areas. 

Current Situation – On February 21, the UK’s Ministry of Defense Intelligence noted a rise in Russian attacks in southern Ukraine, especially near Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region. This followed February 20 Western media reports, confirmed by Ukrainian military officials, noting a rise in Russian troop deployment in southern Ukraine, with an estimated 50,000 Russian troops currently concentrated in the Zaporizhzhia direction. 

Assessments & Forecast – That Russian forces have reportedly bolstered their military presence near Robotyne can be attributed to the relatively slow pace of Ukrainian offensive actions near the village in recent months, enabling Russian troops to regroup. With that, Russia is likely to continue carrying out intensified attacks along the Zaporizhzhia frontline, particularly around Robotyne. Such attacks will likely focus on testing Ukrainian defenses, while simultaneously limiting Ukraine’s ability to retreat and regroup its forces. Moreover, these attacks have the perceived advantage of pressuring Ukrainian forces, given their ammunition shortage, as well as dwindling troop numbers and morale, exacerbated following the loss of Avdiivka, Donetsk region. With that, Ukrainian troops deployed near Robotyne are expected to sustain their defensive positions in the area near term.