Current Situation – Unionized freight transport workers will hold a nationwide multi-sector strike from 06:00 (local time) on March 11 to 06:00 on March 24 to demand better working conditions following failed negotiations. Reports suggest that nearly 7,000 workers in the freight trucking, transport control, maritime shipping port, and rail freight sectors will participate. Freight transport workers at oil terminals of a Finnish oil refining and marketing company located in ports nationwide will also participate. Additionally, labor unions have reported that this strike will not impact the passenger transport sector.  

Assessments & Forecast – Unless averted, significant disruptions to supply chain operations can be anticipated at logistics facilities and infrastructure sectors in ports, the trucking industry, and the railway sector. Delays in delivery times are expected, with the potential for temporary shortages in the supply of goods likely. Additionally, disruptions are expected to persist beyond March 24 due to backlogs. If oil refinery terminals are affected, this may lead to fuel shortages at gas stations, airports, and railway stations. With that, the potential for severe disruptions to airport and other passenger services remains. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Finland on March 11-24 are advised to remain cognizant of updates regarding the slated strike action and allot for associated supply chain disruptions. 

Current Situation – On March 11, a farmers’ protest is slated to take place in Munich to denounce the government’s policies. Participants are expected to gather at Odeonplatz at 17:30 (local time) before marching through central Munich. Details on the exact route are unconfirmed as of writing. Organizers have called on participants to stage a vehicle convoy using trucks, tractors, and cars. On social media, the protest has gathered support from pro-Russia individuals as well. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on social media, coupled with precedent, the protest is likely to garner a turnout ranging in the low to mid thousands, with protesters expected to utilize disruptive tactics, such as slow-drive rallies and road blockades. Farmers are also likely to dump hay, food items, and other materials near Odeonsplatz and government buildings. Considering this, coupled with the potential involvement of radical elements, the protest carries an elevated risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and security personnel. In case of escalating unrest, authorities are likely to deploy forcible crowd control measures like tear gas and arrests. Severe disruptions to travel are anticipated in central Munich. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Munich on March 11 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the farmers’ protest march due to the potential for unrest. Allot for severe disruptions to travel in the vicinity of Odeonsplatz from the evening hours onwards.  

Current Situation – On March 11, doctors associated with the Marburger Bund trade union will stage 24-hour strikes and associated protest actions at 23 university hospitals in 9 of Germany’s 16 federal states. In Munich, Bavaria, doctors will gather at the Maxmonument at 11:30 (local time). At 12:00, they will proceed toward Marienplatz, where a final rally will be held at 13:00. In Stuttgart, Baden-Wurttemberg, doctors will carry out a protest march from Schlossplatz at 11:00. Details on affected hospitals and scheduled protests can be found here (in German).  

Assessments & Forecast – Significant disruptions to medical services, including delays and cancelations of routine appointments, and non-essential operations, are anticipated at the 23 affected university hospitals nationwide. The protests are likely to garner turnouts ranging from the high hundreds to mid thousands and are expected to transpire largely peacefully. Regardless, a bolstered security presence is expected in the vicinity of protest locations as a precaution. Significant disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the protest locations during their respective timings, especially should police enact traffic diversions and road closures. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Germany on March 11 are advised to remain cognizant of rescheduling of healthcare services at affected university hospitals. Allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of associated protests in affected cities from the late morning hours onwards. 

Current Situation – Reports indicate that healthcare workers will stage a protest march in Bucharest on March 11. Participants will gather at Piata Victoriei from 11:00 (local time). Post the initial gathering, protesters will march towards the Ministry of Labor and Social Justice located on Strada Demetru I. Dobrescu and the Ministry of Health located on Strada Cristian Popisteanu 1-3. The protest will culminate outside the Palace of the Parliament. The workers are associated with the Solidaritatea Sanitara federation. The protest is being organized amid ongoing negotiations with the government over a collective bargaining agreement. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the precedent and local media estimates, the protest is expected to witness a turnout in the mid-thousands. Considering heightened sentiments, the protest carries a latent potential for isolated scuffles between protesters and law enforcement. However, such scuffles are unlikely to escalate into wider unrest. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected in the vicinity of the protest march to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to traffic are anticipated near the abovementioned protest locations from the morning hours onwards. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Bucharest on March 11 are advised to maintain vigilance and allot for disruptions to travel near the vicinity of the protest march from the late morning hours. 

Current Situation – On March 8, the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) updates its foreign travel advice for Russia, which remains at avoid all travel, concerning questioning upon arrival in Russia. Specifically, the FCDO notes that there have been intensive security checks on foreign nationals, including British and dual Russian/British nationals, at the Russian borders. This includes; questioning over political views and contacts with Ukraine or Ukrainians, fingerprints and DNA swabs, and requests for access to data on phones or other electronic devices. The FCDO’s full travel advisory is available here.  

Assessments & Forecast – The FCDO’s updates reiterate the elevated threat posed to foreign nationals traveling or operating in Russia, especially given growing reports of arbitrary detentions. Considering the continued deterioration in relations between Russia and countries supporting Ukraine – including EU member states, Norway, Switzerland, the UK, the USA, and others – the FCDO is unlikely to lower its travel advisory for Russia in the medium-to-long term. Moreover, other countries are liable to follow suit, adding similar warnings regarding the threats posed to foreign nationals intending to travel to Russia, in an effort to deter nonessential travel. 

Recommendations – Avoid nonessential travel to Russia due to the elevated risk of arbitrary and politically motivated detentions. 

Current Situation – On March 9, 600 people participated in a solidarity protest with the far-left militant Rote Armee Fraktion (RAF) group, in Berlin’s Kreuzberg neighborhood. The protest was held to denounce the arrest of RAF fugitive Daniela Klette and police operations against two RAF members, who are at large. Many attendees were masked and wore Antifa symbols. A heavy police presence was deployed. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser condemned the protest for glorifying a group that killed 34 people.  

Assessments & Forecast – Although no unrest was recorded, the protest highlights the continued presence of far-left extremists in major cities – including Berlin, Hamburg, and Stuttgart. The protest further reflects heightened anti-authority sentiments, with protesters shouting that Germany is a “police state,” among other slogans. With far-left groups known to rally behind prominent far-left figures, evidenced by mass protests in June 2023 following the sentencing of Lina E., protests are likely in the coming weeks. This is especially so considering ongoing police operations against the two RAF members. Based on precedent, these protests carry an elevated potential for unrest, including attacks on police and property destruction. 

Current Situation – During the early morning hours (local time) of March 7, two Brighton and Hove Albion football club supporters were stabbed prior to the club’s match against AS Roma in Rome. A group of fans were leaving a bar around 00:00 when they were attacked by six individuals wearing balaclavas. The two victims who were stabbed were taken to the hospital with non-life-threatening wounds. Additionally, it was reported that Roma supporters threw bottles, coins, and lighters at the away fans section throughout the match.  

Assessments & Forecast – The incidents highlight the threat of violence posed by football hooliganism and are in line with regionwide trends. Furthermore, that the group of away supporters were attacked leaving a bar the night before the match reiterates the risk of such violence occurring away from stadiums and at locations where fans congregate. Moreover, the risk of violence will likely remain elevated when the two clubs play each other in the UK on March 14. As such, authorities are liable to increase security around the stadium and at locations known to be frequented by football supporters before the match.  

Current Situation – On March 7, the Sejm, Poland’s parliament, passed a resolution urging the EU to impose a ban on agricultural imports from Russia and Belarus, with 441 of 443 Members of Parliament (MPs) present voting in favor. This follows Latvia becoming the first EU member to ban grain imports and other food products from Russia and Belarus on February 22. 

Assessments & Forecast – These actions reflect growing pressure within the EU to expand sanctions on Russia and Belarus to include the agricultural sector amid increased Ukrainian grain imports. The strong support for the resolution in Poland shows that the country continues to support Ukraine despite ongoing Russian disinformation campaigns blaming NATO for the conflict, and protests against Ukrainian food imports. Poland’s motion, along with Latvia’s ban, is likely to encourage other EU members to consider similar bans, increasing the likelihood of an EU-wide prohibition on Russian and Belarusian agricultural imports. While the economic impact of such a ban is relatively limited given the small share of Russian agricultural exports to the EU, this would serve as another signal of European solidarity with Ukraine. 

Current Situation – On March 9, four foreign nationals were arrested in Norge for flying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Bjervik, where restrictions on UAV use are in place due to the “Nordic Response” NATO military exercise. The exercise is being held in northern Finland, Norway, and Sweden through March 15. Separately, in southern Sweden, multiple UAVs were spotted on March 8-9, including near Malmo Airport (MMX) and the nuclear plant in Barsekack. Police are investigating the involvement of foreign actors.  

Assessments & Forecast – The developments raise already heightened concerns over espionage and efforts by hostile nations, particularly Russia. While investigations are ongoing, the fact that Norwegian authorities arrested four foreign nationals, coupled with Swedish authorities considering a link to foreign actors, suggests these UAVs are associated with Moscow. Indeed, the locations of the sightings are in line with previous suspected Russian UAVs – including a string of UAVs near critical and military infrastructure in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden in October 2022. With the NATO exercise ongoing, against the backdrop of Sweden’s accession to NATO, similar security incidents are likely in the coming days – including UAV sightings.  

Current Situation – On March 10, Russian forces launched 39 Shahed kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and four S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles into Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian forces neutralized 35 of the UAVs, including in the Kyiv region. One UAV hit and damaged an industrial facility in the Odesa district, and another damaged a power line in the Mykolaiv region. Separately, on March 8, Valerii Zaluzhnyi was appointed Ukraine’s new ambassador to the UK after being dismissed as head of the armed forces on February 8. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given Russia’s targeting of industrial facilities, the thwarted UAV attacks highlight Moscow’s persistent efforts to disrupt Ukraine’s military and economy. Despite Ukraine neutralizing most of the UAVs on March 10, the ongoing Russian air strikes will continue to pose a risk to civilians in the Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Khmelnytskyi, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The appointment of Zaluzhnyi as ambassador to the UK reflects an attempt to appease his supporters following his ouster as head of the armed forces. With Zaluzhnyi being abroad, this likewise removes a popular potential political challenger for President Volodymyr Zelensky.