Current Situation – Farmers’ protests will take place in multiple cities in Finland, and in Berlin in Germany on March 22. In Germany, farmers and freight workers will hold a protest at Brandenburg Gate in Berlin at 12:00 (local time). More than 1000 tractors, trucks, and cars are slated to participate in this protest. In Finland, farmers associated with the Maa- ja metsataloustuottajain Keskusliitto (MTK) organization will hold multiple protests across the country, including in Ylivieska town and Kuopio. Further details are available here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on precedent, the protest in Berlin is likely to attract turnout in the high hundreds to low thousands, whereas the protests in Finland will likely attract turnouts in the high dozens to low hundreds each. Given precedent, protesters are expected to utilize disruptive tactics, such as slow-drive rallies and road blockades. As such, the protests carry an elevated risk of unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and security personnel. Significant disruptions to travel and business operations are anticipated in the vicinity of the aforementioned demonstrations. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Finland and Germany on March 22 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance near the planned protests. Allot for associated disruptions to travel and remain cognizant of traffic measures and road diversions announced by authorities.

Current Situation – On March 21, a march commemorating the death of 18-year-old Wanys R., who died colliding with a police vehicle on March 13, will take place in Seine-Saint-Denis, outside of Paris. The march will start at Parc Jean Moulin in the La Courneuve suburb at 16:30 (local time) and continue towards Aubervilliers, at the place of his death. Heavy security will be deployed, including aerial surveillance using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). On March 17, 50 individuals attacked the La Courneuve police station claiming police killed Wanys R. The victim’s family, who are organizing the march, also accuse the police of “deliberately” killing him.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on media estimates, the march itself is likely to attract a turnout in the high dozens to low hundreds. However, there is an elevated risk of anti-police protests in the aforementioned suburbs. These protests carry an elevated potential for violent unrest, evidenced by the March 17 attack. Unrest is likely to manifest as violent clashes with police, including throwing projectiles and incendiary devices at police. Further, there is a high risk of arson and vandalism targeting government buildings and vehicles.  

Recommendation – Those operating or residing in Seine-Saint-Denis on March 21 are advised to avoid nonessential travel to the aforementioned suburbs due to the high risk of violent unrest. Allot for associated traffic disruptions in Seine-Saint-Denis. 

Current Situation – Reports indicate that cyclists will gather for a protest rally outside U-Bahnhof Kleistpark, on the intersection between Grunewaldstrasse and Hauptstrasse, in Berlin from 17:00 (local time) on March 22. The demonstration is being organized by cycling groups such as Respect Cyclists Berlin, and Allgemeiner Deutscher Fahrrad-Club Landesverband Berlin e. V. (ADFC) to demand better and safer cycling conditions on Grunewaldstrasse.   

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the organizers’ capabilities, coupled with precedent of similar demonstrations on the protest issue, the rally is likely to gather a turnout ranging from the high dozens to the low hundreds. Given precedent, coupled with the nature of the protest, it is likely to transpire peacefully and without instances of unrest. Regardless, authorities are likely to deploy a bolstered security presence in the vicinity of U-Bahnhof Kleistpark from the evening hours onwards. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated near U-Bahnhof Kleistpark from the evening hours onwards. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Berlin on March 22 are advised to allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of U-Bahnhof Kleistpark due to the slated protest rally from the evening hours onwards.   

Current Situation – On March 22-24, multiple strikes affecting the transportation sector will be held nationwide. A 24-hour strike by public transport workers will be held in Milan on March 22. The labor action will affect local bus, tram, and metro services. Train workers associated with multiple rail operators will stage a nationwide strike from 21:00 (local time) on March 23 to 21:00 on March 24. Additionally, cabin crew associated with the Air Dolomiti will stage a nationwide strike from 10:00-18:00 on March 23. Details are available here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given the unions’ mobilizational capabilities, the labor actions are expected to be widely adhered to. With that, public transportation services will be severely impacted in Milan, resulting in delays and cancelations of bus, tram, and metro services. Similarly, the train strike is likely to result in short-notice cancellations and delays in local, regional, and long-distance trains nationwide. However, minimum services will likely be guaranteed. Due to the labor action, Air Dolomiti flights are likely to face several short-notice cancelations and long delays. Disruptions are likely to extend beyond March 23, as airports resolve passenger backlogs. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Italy on March 22-24 are advised to reconfirm itineraries and allot for disruptions to public transport services nationwide. Those intending to travel with Air Dolomiti airline on March 23 are advised to reconfirm itineraries and allot for disruptions to flight services.   

Current Situation – According to Roma Mobilita, the public transport operator in Rome, two protests will be held in Rome on March 22. Trade union activists will hold a protest in front of the Ministero delle Imprese e del Made in Italy (MIMIT) building at Via Molise 2, starting at 10:00 (local time) on March 22. Additionally, authorities have announced possible road closures and parking bans on Via Molise and Via di San Basilio. Another protest, organized by the anti-capitalist political movement Rete dei Comunisti, is scheduled at Piazza dei Consoli from 17:30. Further details on the slated protests can be found here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the mobilizational capacity of the organizers, as well as official estimates, the slated protests are likely to attract a turnout in the high dozens to low hundreds each. Based on precedent, the protests are expected to transpire peacefully and without instances of major unrest. Regardless, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed near the protest locations to monitor proceedings. Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian movement are anticipated near the aforementioned locations during the slated protest timings. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Rome on March 22 are advised to allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations due to the slated protests. 

Current Situation – On March 22, residents of Kaunas will hold a protest outside the municipality building at Laisves Aleja in Kaunas at 18:00 (local time). The protest is being held to demand the removal of Kaunas Mayor Visvaldas Matijosaitis, with protesters alleging that his family has business links with Russia. Local reports suggest that authorities have allowed only 50 participants to take part in the protest. 

Assessments & Forecast – Although authorities have approved only 50 participants, based on social media estimates, the slated protest is likely to witness a turnout ranging in the low to mid-hundreds. Considering heightened sentiments over the protest issue, coupled with prevalent anti-Russia sentiments among certain sections of the Lithuanian population, the demonstration carries a latent potential for isolated scuffles between protesters and the police. In the event of escalating unrest, police are likely to use forcible crowd dispersal methods, including conducting arrests. With that, authorities are likely to deploy a bolstered security presence in the vicinity of the municipality building. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated near Laisves Aleja from the evening hours onwards. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Kaunas on March 22 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for travel-related disruptions near the municipality building on Laisves Aleja due to the scheduled protest during the evening hours. 

Current Situation- As of March 21, power outages are ongoing during the afternoon hours (local time) in multiple cities, including Podgorica, due to maintenance work. The Crnogorski elektrodistributivni sistem (CEDIS) electricity distribution company announced that multiple locations in Podgorica will face power outages through at least18:00. Power outages are also scheduled for March 22-23 in multiple cities, including Podgorica, Zeta, and Danilovgrad, from 8:30 to 18:00. Further details regarding the power outages are available here (in Montenegrin). 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Montenegro on March 21-23 are advised to remain cognizant of updates related to scheduled power outages.  

Current Situation – According to March 20 reports, a 62-year-old was arrested on March 5 for plotting an Islamist terrorist attack against a church in Paris and was formally charged on March 8. The man is reported to be an Islamic State (IS) supporter and had carried out reconnaissance on Catholic churches and buildings in Paris. Reports have not detailed whether weapons were seized as of writing.  

Assessments & Forecast – The incident reiterates the continued targeting of churches by Islamist terrorists, evidenced by the terror threat against the Cologne Cathedral in Germany in December 2023. The timing is especially notable given that the plot was discovered leading up to Easter and Passover. As such, it highlights the elevated threat of Islamist plots during Christian and Jewish religious holidays given their symbolic value. Further, attacks during holidays hold the potential for mass casualties, given large crowds at associated religious services and events. Considering this, authorities are likely to bolster security presence near churches, synagogues, public squares, and government buildings in the coming weeks, as also seen in western Europe during the winter holidays in December 2023 – January 2024. 

Current Situation – Per March 18 reports, police crime statistics showed that residential burglaries in Hamburg rose by 23 percent in 2023 from 2022, revealing significant disparities among its districts. The Altona district, especially the upscale Blankenese area, experienced a 60 and 256 percent surge, respectively. Eppendorf, Hoheluft-Ost, and Winterhude also witnessed increases of 236, 160, and 103 percent. In Hoheluft-West, 34 incidents were recorded compared to two incidents. Despite the spike, total burglaries, at 3,080, remained below the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level of 4,313 recorded in 2019. 

Assessments & Forecast: The surge in Hamburg’s residential burglaries, particularly in wealthy areas like Blankenese and Eppendorf, highlights increased security risks for residents and travelers, indicating burglars’ focus on high-value neighborhoods. As such, the uptick is in line with an overall increase in burglaries across Germany during the post-COVID-19 period, with Germany reporting an increase of 21.5 percent in such incidents in 2022 compared to 2021. Despite burglaries remaining below the pre-pandemic numbers, the fact that there has still been a 23 percent increase in such incidents is likely to exacerbate concerns regarding police effectiveness and enforcement among the public. 

Current Situation – On March 19, Taoiseach, Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, announced his resignation as leader of the liberal-conservative Fine Gael party and stated that he would step down once a new leader is elected. Varadkar cited personal and political reasons for his decision without providing further details. Nominations for a new party leader opened on March 21, with results expected on April 5. Fine Gael currently heads a coalition government alongside the conservative Fianna Fail and the Green Party. Opposition parties are demanding a fresh election following Varadkar’s resignation. 

Assessments & Forecast – That Varadkar’s resignation follows the government’s defeat in the March 8 referendum on changes to the constitution’s definition of family and women, suggests that it was at least partially influenced by this. Despite opposition calls for fresh elections, given that coalition leaders have expressed their support for the new Fine Gael leader and commitment to completing the government’s term, early elections are unlikely. Indeed, the incumbent government holds a majority of 81 seats in the 160-seat Dail Eireann, the lower house of the Parliament, and the support of multiple independent candidates. 

Current Situation – According to March 20 Russian local media reports, Ukraine allegedly targeted the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Kurchatov town, Kursk region, with a Ukrainian S-200 missile and at least five UAVs. Although Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted the aerial assault, falling debris damaged the nearby Vysoka electric substation, causing temporary power outages to some parts of Kursk city. 

Assessments & Forecast – The alleged Ukrainian attacks are notable given the incident marks the fourth time Moscow has accused Kyiv of launching attacks targeting the nuclear facility since the start of the conflict, with the last attack recorded on January 10. Although it is unlikely that Kyiv intended to target the nuclear facility deliberately given the devastating consequences of such an attack, the accusations fall in line with Moscow’s rhetoric to hold Ukraine and the West responsible for escalating the current conflict. Moreover, such heightened rhetoric has the perceived advantage of justifying Moscow’s continued military operations. That said, amid repeated Ukrainian UAV attacks targeting the Kursk region in recent weeks, concerns about UAV debris inadvertently hitting nuclear facilities will persist in the near-to-medium term.   

Current Situation – During the early morning hours (local time) on March 21, Russia launched a massive missile attack targeting Kyiv city. Although Ukrainian air defense systems reportedly intercepted all the incoming missiles, falling debris injured 11 and caused property damage to residences and vehicles. Further details remain unconfirmed, as of writing. According to March 20 reports from the UK’s Ministry of Defense Intelligence, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF) and the Russian Aerospace Forces are currently attempting to upgrade their camouflage and deception techniques to reduce visibility against Ukrainian aerial assaults. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given the strike on Kyiv marks the first attack targeting the city in over a month, Russia likely conducted the air strike in retaliation to the recent Ukrainian attacks on civilian areas and energy facilities in Belgorod and Kursk. Meanwhile, BSF’s attempts highlight Moscow’s fear of further Ukrainian attacks inflicting significant losses on Russia’s naval fleet deployed in the region. Such attempts likely aim to retain Russian military dominance in the Black Sea, especially given the BSF’s operations in the maritime domain enable Moscow to access and attack Ukrainian regions, otherwise restricted via land.