Current Situation – The US Embassy in Denmark issued a security alert for a match between the Copenhagen and Brondby football teams at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen from 14:00 (local time) on April 1. The alert warns of potential violence, vandalism, and public disorder near the stadium, including clashes between rival fans and attacks on the police. Copenhagen police will implement an increased penalty zone around the stadium from 08:00-22:00, whereby individuals can be charged double the penalties for certain offenses, including violence and vandalism. Details are available here (in Danish). 

Assessments & Forecast – The security alert and police measures reflect the heightened risk for unrest, especially given the anticipated large crowds, with the stadium holding up to 38,000 spectators. In addition to the penalty zone, authorities are likely to significantly increase security deployment and measures across Copenhagen, especially at transport stations. In the event of escalating unrest, authorities are expected to use forcible crowd dispersal measures, such as deploying tear gas and conducting arrests. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are expected in the vicinity of the stadium during the aforementioned timings. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Copenhagen on April 1 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the Parken stadium due to the elevated potential for unrest. Allot for travel-related disruptions in the vicinity of the stadium from the afternoon hours. 

Current Situation – Unionized postal workers employed with Posta Romana, Romania’s national postal service operator, will hold an indefinite nationwide strike from April 1. The workers are affiliated with the trade union Sindicatului Lucratorilor Postali. The strike has been called to demand improvements in salaries and pensions. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given the union’s mobilizational capabilities, the labor action is expected to be widely adhered to, unless negotiations are reached regarding pay and pensions. As such, significant disruptions to postal services are highly likely on April 1 and in the days following. However, considering that the strike involves the national postal service operator, there is a possibility of the union reaching an agreement, as authorities are expected to attempt to avoid such disruptions. Further, small pickets can be expected nationwide outside post offices, including in Bucharest.  

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Romania on April 1 and in the coming days are advised to allot for disruptions to postal services due to the aforementioned strike.  

Current Situation – On March 30, police confirmed that a suspicious package discovered during the evening hours (local time) of March 29 outside the Kingdom Hall of Jehovah’s Witnesses in Kalsdorf, Styria, contained an improvised explosive device (IED). The incident coincided with a scheduled meeting, with some 50 people inside the hall. Security measures have been bolstered at all Jehovah’s Witness properties nationwide, with investigations ongoing.  

Assessments & Forecast – The incident raises concerns over a growing threat posed to Jehovah’s Witnesses in western Europe, evidenced by the August 2023 attempted bombing using pipe bombs planted on two vehicles outside a kingdom hall in Leibnitz, Styria, and the March 2023 mass shooting at a kingdom hall in Hamburg, Germany. The location also reiterates the continued targeting of places of worship by various actors, including Islamists and far-right extremists, given their symbolic nature as well as their public services schedules and often lax security measures. Further, the nationwide security measures reflect the current security landscape, with similar measures enacted during the winter holiday period following the decision to raise the terrorist alert level from “increased” to “high” in October 2023. 

Current Situation – On March 29, Education Minister Nicole Belloubet announced the establishment of a “mobile security force” for schools “experiencing difficulties” amid an uptick in threats against teachers. Belloubet said the move was aimed at reassuring teachers following the murder of Dominque Bernard in Arras in October 2023 and Samuel Paty in Paris in 2020 in Islamist terrorist attacks. Separately, 150 schools nationwide have been subject to bomb threats since March 20, resulting in school closures. Four suspects, including three minors, have been arrested, with the perpetrators reportedly motivated by Islamist and far-right extremist ideologies. 

Assessment and Forecast – The developments reflect growing concerns over insecurity in French educational institutions. The focus on teachers’ safety is also notable, given increasing youth radicalization and subsequent targeting of school staff. The fact that France has raised its national threat level to the highest “emergency level” due to Islamist terrorism adds credence to safety concerns. Separately, the bomb hoaxes are likely to continue despite these arrests, given the ease of executing these hoaxes and the high cost associated with them – including disruptions and law enforcement sources.  

Current Situation – On March 29, a rabbi was physically assaulted at a shopping center in Utrecht. The assailant reportedly hit the victim on the head and shouted anti-Semitic slurs at him, including “why are you dressed like a Jew.” Two passersby intervened to stop the assault. Police are investigating the incident and have not confirmed if it is being treated as a hate crime.  

Assessments & Forecast – The incident reflects the rise in anti-Semitism Europewide since the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October 2023. In the Netherlands, anti-Semitic incidents doubled in 2023 compared to 2022, with similar trends recorded in Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK, among others. While most incidents have been confined to verbal abuse in person and online, the recent development points to growing concerns over physical attacks, especially given the stabbing of a Jewish man in Zurich, Switzerland, and the beating of a Jewish man in Paris, France in March alone. Given the continued conflation of developments in Israel with Jews abroad, the upward trend of anti-Semitism will continue, with individuals who present as Jewish or Israeli at a higher risk of being targeted.  

Current Situation – On March 30, police arrested a man who threatened to blow himself up and held four people hostage for five hours at a nightclub in Ede. The suspect, armed with knives, was apprehended as he exited the club. No explosives were found. Authorities have ruled out terrorism as a factor, with the suspect’s mental state under investigation. 150 nearby homes were evacuated during the standoff, and train services were halted.  

Assessments & Forecast – While authorities ruled out terrorism, that the suspect was armed with multiple knives indicates this was likely premeditated with the suspect likely suffering from mental health issues. Although this appears to be isolated, it follows several hostage situations in western Europe, including the February 8 hostage situation on a train in Vaud, Switzerland and the January 26 hostage situation at a cafe in Ulm, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany. While infrequent, such cases can cause significant disruptions and pose a threat to public safety, as seen with the evacuation of 150 homes and the interruption of train services. Despite the swift police response, such incidents highlight the challenges of predicting and preventing random attacks.  

Current Situation – On March 29, President Andrzej Duda vetoed a law allowing over-the-counter access to emergency contraceptive pills for women and girls aged 15 and up. Duda, allied with the right-wing populist Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc (PiS) party, said the bill enabled access to the pill “without medical supervision” and bypassed “the role and responsibility of parents.” In response, the pro-EU coalition government, which pledged to reverse laws restricting women’s health enacted by the PiS, said it would bypass the veto by allowing pharmacists to give prescriptions for the pill.  

Assessments & Forecast – Duda’s decision to veto the bill reiterates the challenges in reversing laws on women’s reproductive rights, including the near total ban on legal abortions. Given the backlash from the government, there is an elevated potential for protests organized by women’s rights groups in the near term, with protests already held in recent months over Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s failure to uphold his pledge. Given that four bills have already been submitted to parliament, with no confirmed date for a first reading of any, a reversal of these laws remains unlikely in the coming months. 

Current Situation – On March 31, during the early morning hours (local time), Russia launched cruise missiles at critical infrastructure in the Lviv region, which was also targeted on March 24 and 29. One person was killed. Ukraine’s air force reported that Russia launched 16 missiles and 11 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during the overnight hours of March 30-31, with nine UAVs and nine missiles successfully downed. Russia claimed to have destroyed three Ukrainian S-300 air defense systems. 

Assessments & Forecast – The intensified attacks in Lviv and other regions signify a strategic shift by Russia to inflict significant damage on key infrastructure and defense systems. The purported destruction of three S-300 air defense systems, if confirmed, underscores a deterioration in Ukrainian air defenses, potentially paving the way for further Russian advances. With Ukraine’s S-300 missile stockpile estimated to be depleted by early May without additional Western aid, the risk of successful Russian missile attacks in metropolitan regions will increase in the coming weeks. The escalation in attacks aligns with Russia’s goal of forcing Ukraine into a negotiated settlement, leveraging its military advantage to secure favorable terms.