Current Situation – Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather service, has issued red alerts, the highest level on a three-tier scale, for heavy rains across western Bulgaria, including in Sofia, in effect through the nighttime hours (local time) of May 25. Orange alerts, the second highest level on the same scale, have been issued for thunderstorms in the Thessaloniki, Larissa, and Lamia regions of Greece through the afternoon hours of May 26. Additionally, orange alerts for heavy winds have been issued in Breisgau-Hochschwarzwald and Freiburg, Baden-Wurttemberg state, Germany, through the nighttime hours of May 25. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in the aforementioned countries in Europe on May 25-26 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks and allot for travel-related disruptions arising from adverse weather conditions. 

Current Situation – On May 24, the European Commission demanded that Hungary withdraw its draft “Transparency of Public Life” law, citing concerns over violations of EU principles. The government, led by Viktor Orban and his far-right populist Fidesz party, argues that the law protects national sovereignty from foreign interference. EU ministers will discuss possible Article 7 sanctions—which allow suspension of a member state’s rights in cases of serious, persistent breaches of EU values—on May 27.

Assessments & Forecast – The demand for withdrawal and threat of legal action highlight serious concerns over Hungary’s democratic backsliding. That said, considering that unanimous approval from all other member states is required for Article 7 to be invoked, the likelihood of this passing is limited. This is primarily due to divisions within the bloc, considering that such a case would set a precedent for the use of Article 7 on other countries. This increases the likelihood of countries like Slovakia, which also have tensions with the EU, to veto the decision. Nonetheless, the EU is liable to exert other measures, such as blocking funds, to pressure Budapest.

Current Situation – On May 23, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen stated that two Russian military aircraft jets are suspected of violating Finnish airspace off Porvoo, a city on the southern coast of Finland. Separately, on May 22, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that Polish jets intercepted two Russian Sukhoi Su-24 bombers allegedly performing “deliberate and threatening” actions in the airspace over the Baltic Sea.

Assessments & Forecast – The incidents are reflective of the volatile security landscape in the Baltic Sea region, amid escalating Russian provocations. This is especially so, considering that the airspace violations follow the detention of a Greek-owned oil tanker by Russia and alleged Russian violations of Estonian airspace earlier in May. Considering these developments, defense ministers in the Baltic states are likely to reiterate warnings over Russia’s military intentions in the region if a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv is reached. Moreover, joint exercises in NATO’s Eastern Flank will likely increase in the near term to enhance NATO’s collective defense posture. However, this may lead to increased Russian provocations, with tensions between NATO and Moscow to remain elevated.

Current Situation – Laurent Hottiaux, Prefect of Alpes-Maritimes, stated that the May 24 outage in Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur was due to “major damage to network installations” from two malicious acts. The first involved an arson attack on a substation in Tanneron, disrupting power to Cannes. A second outage occurred after the legs of an electricity pylon near Villeneuve-Loubet were deliberately cut. No suspects have been identified. About 160,000 homes lost power. Train services were disrupted, and the Cannes Film Festival was briefly affected.

Assessments & Forecast – The involvement of far-left activists in the attacks is highly likely given that the modus operandi, coupled with the targeting of critical infrastructure, strongly aligns with previous incidents of far-left sabotage in France. The attacks were likely aimed at causing disruptions to the Cannes Film Festival, given that the festival itself is viewed by far-left actors as a symbol of capitalist excess, elitism, and cultural commodification. Attacks carried out during such high-profile events allow such groups to maximize media exposure and bring higher public attention to their cause, as seen during the arson attacks by suspected far-left groups during the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Current Situation – As per May 24 reports, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has accused Ukraine of escalating espionage operations in Hungary, alleging that Ukrainian intelligence is actively collaborating with Hungarian opposition parties to sway public opinion in favor of Ukraine’s EU membership. Orban claims Ukrainian agents are conducting influence campaigns and disinformation efforts, investing significant resources to pressure Budapest into supporting Kyiv’s EU bid.

Assessments & Forecast – Orban is likely using the ongoing espionage dispute, which began following the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) reported dismantling of a Hungarian-run military intelligence network in Ukraine’s Transcarpathia region on May 9, to erode Hungary’s opposition parties’ credibility. By framing the opposition as “pro-Ukrainian” and linked to foreign intelligence services, Orban likely aims to rally nationalist sentiment and reinforce his government’s anti-Ukraine, pro-sovereignty stance. Furthermore, Hungary’s increasingly confrontational stance toward Ukraine and its Western allies could further strain relations with EU and NATO partners. Indeed, Orban’s framing of Ukraine as a security threat may be used to justify continued vetoes or delays on EU support for Ukraine, complicating consensus-building within the bloc.

Current Situation – On May 24, Serbian officials issued an arrest warrant “without a statute of limitations” for a Kosovar policeman who allegedly attacked a Serb student during a high school graduation ceremony in the ethnic Serb-majority municipality of North Mitrovica on May 23. The officer reportedly stopped the student as graduates displayed Serbian “nationalist symbols” and sang Serbian nationalist songs. Kosovar officials defended the officer, stating that the intervention was peaceful and prevented escalation.

Assessments & Forecast – With Serbia exercising no jurisdiction over Kosovo, the warrant is likely a symbolic gesture, aligning with Belgrade’s continued claims that Kosovo remains part of Serbia. Regardless, with Kosovar officials framing the accusation as “propaganda”, the possibility of Serbia capitalizing on the incident to escalate nationalist sentiment in northern Kosovo and pressure Pristina to ease policies seen as hostile to ethnic Serbs cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, given reports that the student was injured, the incident is likely to exacerbate tensions in Serb-majority areas in Kosovo in the near term. Indeed, similar instances of alleged police brutality against Serbs triggered protests in Mitrovica on March 8 and in October 2024.

Current Situation – On May 23, Sakerhetspolisen (Sapo), the Swedish Security Service, lowered the national terrorist threat level from “high,” the second highest level, to “elevated,” the third highest on its five-point scale. Sapo Director Charlotte von Essen explained that the downgrade reflects Sweden’s shift from being a “priority target” to a “legitimate target” for Islamist terrorist groups, adding that Sweden’s role as an “anti-Islam country” in propaganda has diminished.

Assessments & Forecast – Despite the downgrade, Sweden’s overall security landscape has not improved in the past 12 months. This is also reflected by von Essen’s warning that hostile foreign actors continue to pose a serious threat, likely referencing the increased threat of Russia-backed hybrid warfare and Iran-backed activity. Indeed, Sapo has repeatedly warned of Tehran-backed attack plots in 2024, especially targeting Jewish and Israeli entities. Moreover, although the threat level was lowered, the potential for an Islamist terrorist attack is still elevated, with the primary threat continuing to emanate from radicalized lone actors. Further, as indicated by Sapo, the terrorist landscape itself remains volatile, particularly if Islamist groups capitalize on future actions perceived as anti-Islam, like Quran-burning protests.

Current Situation – In the overnight hours (local time) of May 24-25, 12 were killed in large-scale Russian airstrikes targeting multiple regions of Ukraine, including Kyiv city. This occurred on the second day of a scheduled three-day prisoner swap between May 23-25.

Assessments & Forecast – Given the scale and nature of the attacks, they reflect the Kremlin’s effort to pressure Kyiv into accepting ceasefire terms favorable to Moscow, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stating that Russia will present a draft peace treaty to Kyiv following the final day of the prisoner exchange on May 25. As such, the risk of further airstrikes is extreme in the coming hours, particularly in Kyiv. Meanwhile, with the draft ceasefire proposal from Moscow expected to include terms deemed unacceptable by Ukraine, Russia is likely to use Kyiv’s expected rejection of the ceasefire proposal to blame Ukraine for prolonging the conflict and obstructing peace efforts. This, in turn, is expected to serve as a pretext for continued Russian airstrikes and ground assaults in the near to medium term, particularly in the eastern regions targeted in Russia’s renewed “summer offensive”.

Current Situation – On May 25, the Labour government renationalized the South Western Railway (SWR) rail operator, bringing it under the control of the Department for Transport in the first such instance under this government. The government cited inefficiency and delayed services as a reason for the change. The move is part of a larger policy change, with all remaining privately operated rail services to be renationalized under a new public entity, Great British Railways (GBR), by 2027.

Assessments & Forecast – The transition of SWR operations from private to public ownership is liable to cause short-term or localized disruptions to rail services in the coming weeks, as management and staffing systems are reorganized. Moreover, with a Parliament vote to formally establish GBR as a new public entity slated in the coming months, similar disruptions are expected across the rail system as other operators and rail infrastructure assets are also renationalized. Furthermore, with multiple unions, including the Rail, Maritime, and Transport Union (RMT), expressing concerns over potential staff outsourcing under nationalized systems, future labor actions or protests by unionized workers are likely if these concerns are not addressed.