Current Situation – The climate activist group Code Rouge has called for nationwide “mass action” targeting the aviation industry and two prominent French multinational companies between October 24 and 28. The group has not announced details regarding their planned action, but alluded on social media that it will carry out further actions on October 27. Protests were also held on October 26. Further details are available here.  

Assessments & Forecast – Based on Code Rouge’s social media statements, coupled with its call for mass action, large-scale protest actions are likely on October 27-28. Such actions are expected to include blockades of roads and logistical and transport infrastructure near the targeted companies’ sites and supply chain points. Additionally, activists are likely to block access to and attempt to enter and disrupt operations at major airports nationwide. Given the use of disruptive tactics, the protests carry a heightened potential for clashes between the police and demonstrators. As such, a bolstered police presence is likely to be deployed near each protest action. In the event of unrest, police are likely to use crowd dispersal measures, including arrests, water cannons, and tear gas. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Belgium on October 27-28 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of potential climate protests. Allot of disruptions to travel and operations. 

Current Situation – Unionized transport workers associated with the USB and Orsa Tpl unions will hold a 24-hour strike in Rome on October 28. The strike will affect bus, tram, and metro services operated by ATAC network. However, services will remain available between 05:30-08:30 (local time) and from 17:00-20:00. Additionally, striking workers will hold an associated sit-in protest outside the headquarters of the Department of Mobility and Transport in via Capitan Bavastro, 94 from 11:00-13:00. Further details can be found here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given the mobilizational capacity of the unions involved, the strike is anticipated to be widely adhered to. Significant disruptions to services on the Atac network, including delays and cancelations, are anticipated. With that, overcrowding is expected on other public transport options, such as buses operated by other networks that are not affected by the strike. An increased number of travelers may resort to private vehicles, rental cars, and taxis, which could lead to higher traffic congestion on major roads. Based on precedent, attendance at the protest is expected to range in the low to mid-hundreds and is expected to transpire largely peacefully. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Rome on October 28 are advised to allot for disruptions to bus and tram services due to the scheduled strike. Allot for travel disruptions near the Department of Mobility and Transport building during the late morning hours due to the slated protest. 

Current Situation – Unionized employees in multiple sectors, including rail, power, chemical, maritime, postal, and emergency services, associated with the Solidarnosc union will protest at the West Pomerania Voivodeship Office in Szczecin starting at 14:00 (local time) on October 28. The protest is being held to denounce the closure of several workplaces and the redundancy of hundreds of employees. During the protest, Solidarnosc plans to submit a petition to Prime Minister Donald Tusk through West Pomeranian Voivode Adam Rudawski, demanding an end to job cuts and improvements for workers in the region. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given the mobilization capabilities of the union, the protest is likely to attract a turnout in the mid to high-hundreds. Based on precedent, the protest is expected to transpire peacefully and without instances of unrest. That said, union leaders have indicated that if the protest does not yield results, they will consider more assertive measures in the near term. Regardless, a bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed near the protest location as a precautionary measure. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated near the protest from the afternoon hours onwards. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Szczecin on October 28 are advised to allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of the West Pomerania Voivodeship Office during the afternoon hours due to the slated protest by unionized workers. 

Current Situation – On October 28, truckers associated with the Sindikat vozaca Srbije driver’s union will stop their vehicles and stage a strike, and associated protests, at four border crossings from 13:00 (local time). The strikes and protests will affect the Batrovci crossing with Croatia, the Gradina crossing with Bulgaria, and the Kelebija and Horgos crossings with Hungary. The labor action is being held to demand improved efficiency for haulage drivers at customs points. 

Assessments & Forecast – Given precedent, the strike is likely to be widely adhered to, with associated protests expected to see turnouts ranging in the low to high hundreds. Given expected disruptions to cross-border travel, there is a latent potential for unrest in the form of localized scuffles between protesters, police, and/or disgruntled commuters. As such, a bolstered security presence is likely to be deployed in the vicinity of the border crossings. In the event of escalating unrest, authorities are likely to use forcible dispersal methods. Additionally, significant delays to vehicular movement and border crossing operations are expected, with traffic congestion likely to occur at alternative crossings from the afternoon hours. 

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Serbia on October 28 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the aforementioned border crossings due to the latent potential for unrest related to the scheduled demonstrations. Allot for associated disruptions to travel. 

Current Situation – Activists associated with the climate group Extinction Rebellion (XR) will hold daily protest marches against insurance companies linked to funding fossil fuel projects, starting from Trinity Square Gardens in London at 11:00 (local time) between October 28 and 30. After the initial gathering, activists will march to the headquarters of multiple insurance companies located in London. Associated protests are also scheduled in other cities nationwide through November 2. Further details are available here. 

Assessments & Forecast – Based on the group’s mobilization capabilities, the scheduled protests are likely to witness turnouts ranging from the low to mid-hundreds daily. Given heightened sentiments surrounding the protest issue, the protests carry a latent potential for clashes between protesters and the police. Moreover, climate activists may employ disruptive tactics, such as road blockades which also increase the potential for unrest. Regardless, an increased security presence is expected in the vicinity of the protest as a precautionary measure. In the event of escalating unrest, authorities may resort to crowd control measures, such as conducting arrests. Travel disruptions are anticipated in the vicinity of Trinity Square Gardens from the morning hours onwards.   

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in London from October 28-30 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Trinity Square Gardens due to the latent potential for unrest. Allot for associated disruptions to travel from morning hours onwards. 

Current Situation – On October 24, Walter Rosenkranz from the far-right Freiheitliche Partei Osterreichs (FPO) party was elected president of the Nationalrat, the lower house of parliament, at the newly elected assembly’s inaugural session. The Nationalrat president, the second-highest office in Austria, chairs plenary sessions, can platform or silence speakers, and schedule or table agenda items. Rosenkranz won with 100 out of 183 parliamentary votes in a secret ballot, marking the first time an FPO candidate has held the position.  

Assessments & Forecast – Given that the strongest party traditionally receives this role, Rosenkranz’s election was not entirely unexpected. However, given that the FPO is unlikely to participate in the government, the appointment of its nominee is likely to trigger concerns regarding Rosenkranz’s impartiality. As a member of the opposition, Rosenkranz’s appointment could potentially lead to legislative gridlock if he uses his powers to obstruct the governing coalition’s agenda. Additionally, his appointment is liable to trigger protests in the near term, including in Vienna, given the controversy surrounding his ties to the nationalist anti-Semitic fraternity “Libertas” and the far-right “Identitarian” movement. 

Current Situation – On October 26 a major mobile operator confirmed that it was targeted in a cyberattack in mid-October. According to cybersecurity expert Clement Domingo, the data theft includes details of 24 million users – including bank accounts – and has been published on the dark web. However, the company has yet to confirm the extent of the leak, adding that bank accounts were not affected. This follows a similar cyberattack on September 19 targeting another major telecommunications operator, in which data was also stolen.  

Assessments & Forecast – While details on the type of cyberattack have not been made public, the fact that data was reportedly put up for sale on the dark web suggests the attack was carried out by cybercriminals. As such, this highlights the elevated threat of cybercrimes, with the Interior Ministry reporting that France recorded a 40 percent increase in digital attacks from 2019-2023. Moreover, the target of the attack is notable and highlights the growing risk of sophisticated attacks targeting large companies, evidenced by the September 19 cyberattack, and the September 13 data theft targeting France’s pension insurance.  

Current Situation – According to local media reports, 200 masked Hansa Rostock FC supporters threw stones at a train carrying 700 Rot-Weiss Essen FC fans to a match between the two teams at around 09:30 (local time) on October 26. The incident occurred on the tracks between Lowenberg and Gransee in Brandenburg. The train was temporarily stopped, and the opposing sides entered a physical altercation. The train was damaged, but no injuries were reported. 

Assessments & Forecast – The attack reiterates the ongoing heightened threat of football hooliganism across Europe. It also reflects the persisting threat of premeditated attacks on rival fans, especially during transit, evidenced by a French club’s supporters attacking a bus carrying rival fans in October 2023 and two Polish football hooligans planning an explosive attack on a train carrying rival fans in December 2023. Such attacks carry the potential for spillover violence against bystanders and associated travel disruptions. The potential for spontaneous clashes between rival football fans also remains around stadiums, as well as public areas, transport hubs, and eateries where opposing groups may meet before and after scheduled matches. 

Current Situation – On October 25, a prominent Nordic bank was targeted in a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) cyberattack, disrupting access to its website and application in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The bank’s press manager confirmed the attack, noting that the bank had been targeted in several DDoS attacks in September and October. Services are operating as usual as of October 27. 

Assessments & Forecast – While authorities have not confirmed the actors involved, the level of disruptions indicates the likely involvement of sophisticated hackers. Moreover, the use of DDoS and the target aligns with cyberattacks carried out by pro-Russia and/or Russia-backed actors in Europe. Indeed, in August, Germany’s intelligence agencies assessed that a hacker group linked to the Russian military intelligence (GRU) Unit 29155 conducted cyberattacks against NATO and EU countries. Given this, coupled with warnings from Nordic countries over Russian cyberattacks, the involvement of Russia-backed actors is highly likely. Further, this highlights the elevated threat of cyberattacks in the Nordics, with the Nordic Cyber Resilience Report 2024 indicating that 54 percent of surveyed Nordic organizations experienced at least one severe cyberattack in 2023. 

Current Situation – On October 26, authorities arrested four individuals suspected of planting explosives and hazardous materials inside standard parcels dispatched via courier services, including land and air freight, to several EU countries and the UK. Some of the planted parcels ignited or detonated during transit. The group was planning to ship similar parcels to Canada and the USA. Officials have not ruled out the possibility of Russian involvement in these operations. 

Assessments & Forecast – Moscow’s involvement remains highly likely considering the uptick in Russian sabotage targeting pro-Ukrainian countries in 2024, with a suspected Russian agent arrested in France on June 5 for planning to plant an explosive in a cargo plane. Reports indicating that some of the planted parcels bypassed details inspections are likely to raise concerns regarding similar sabotage actions going forward. Although authorities did not specify details regarding previous incidents of planted parcels exploding, such sabotage actions pose a high risk to logistical operations and carry the potential to cause casualties. This risk, alongside the expected increase in security checks, is liable to lead to logistics disruptions and subsequent supply-chain disruptions in Europe. 

Current Situation – Six individuals were killed and at least 20 people injured, including several children, in air strikes in Kyiv and Dnipro cities during the night and overnight hours (local time) on October 25-26. In Dnipro, a missile attack destroyed and damaged dozens of vehicles and buildings, including residences and the Mechnikov hospital used to treat injured soldiers. In Kyiv, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) struck a high-rise residential building. Civilian casualties were also reported during UAV attacks in the Kyiv and Kherson regions.  

Assessments & Forecast – With similar strikes recorded in Kyiv and Kharkiv on October 21, the recent attacks reflect the persisting threat of air strikes in civilian areas in major cities. Although the threat of missile and UAV strikes is higher in cities and areas near the frontline, including Kharkiv and Kherson, the threat of the same is expected to continue and even rise in relatively safer western and central Ukrainian cities during the winter months as on-ground movement becomes more difficult. Meanwhile, the strike on the Mechnikov hospital reflects Moscow’s aim to compromise Kyiv’s military capabilities.