Current Situation – A protest calling for judicial independence is scheduled to take place at the Supreme Court of Israel on Jerusalem’s Sha’arei Mishpat Street at 16:30 (local time). This event is part of a broader series of demonstrations advocating for the independence of the judiciary.

Recommendations – Those operating or residing in Jerusalem on December 1 are advised to allot for disruptions and maintain heightened vigilance near the protest location due to the slated protest and the associated risk of localized unrest.

Current Situation – The Supreme Administrative Court has annulled the results of individual-seat elections in 29 districts from the first phase of the House of Representatives elections, in addition to the 19 districts previously voided by the National Elections Authority (NEA). As a result, elections will be rerun in 48 of the 70 districts in the first phase.

Assessments & Forecast – These developments follow reports of vote-buying, campaign silence violations, and inadequate oversight of campaign financing. The court’s decision is notable as authorities are reviewing more than twice as many appeals as in the 2020 elections. This is likely also partially intended to project the elections as legitimate and free and fair. The rulings are also likely to increase tensions between judicial bodies and the NEA over perceived shortcomings in election management. These tensions are heightened by the importance of the upcoming parliamentary session, which is expected to include renewed attempts to amend the constitution, including proposals to remove presidential term limits for President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Overall, these developments will increase pressure on the NEA to reassess its electoral management, although the reruns are unlikely to alter the expected pro-government outcome.

Current Situation – The head of the dam and its power plant stated that operations were halted after the water level fell to 180 meters, approximately 40 meters below the minimum required for power generation. He added that electricity production was stopped in order to prioritize downstream drinking, agricultural, and industrial needs. Karkheh Dam is Iran’s largest dam.

Assessments & Forecast – The comes as Iran faces one of its most severe water crises in decades with water levels at reservoirs nationwide dropping to record low levels. In this context, the latest development in Khuzestan underscores the severity of the ongoing water crisis and highlights its cascading effects on other sectors, including electricity. Although Iran reportedly generates roughly 85 percent of its electricity from thermal sources and only about 14 percent from hydropower, the reduction in hydropower capacity is still likely to strain the national grid and compound existing hardships for residents. This will likely exacerbate public frustration amid growing perceptions of insufficient government action. Further suspensions of power generation at other dams are also possible, given that the crisis is unlikely to ease in the near term.

Current Situation –   At least one protester was killed. The Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) Ministry of Interior (MoI) claimed that “external forces”, who were also responsible for the November 26 UAV attack targeting the Khor Mor gas field, had instigated the protest.

Assessments & Forecast – Socioeconomic protests periodically occur in Erbil Province’s Khabat district. Herki tribe members will likely perceive the MoI’s statement as an attempt to justify the security forces’ violent response by alleging collusion with “external actors.” The tribe’s general mobilization along with the reported deployment of KRG security forces to Lajan, indicates the potential for elevated tensions between the parties, although no further clashes have been reported as of December 1. Residents of Khabat district are liable to stage additional protests denouncing the crackdown in the coming days, including along the Erbil–Mosul Highway. However, these dynamics are unlikely to trigger a broader protest wave that spreads into Erbil city.

Current Situation – The request argued that ending the trial would serve the broader public interest amid internal divisions and security challenges. Several opposition figures, including Yair Golan, Yair Lapid, and Benny Gantz, issued statements the same day criticizing Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu for seeking a pardon without admitting guilt. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stated he would support a pardon only if it required Netanyahu to permanently withdraw from political life.

Assessments & Forecast – Pardons in Israel are typically granted after conviction and the conclusion of legal proceedings, making this request, submitted without an admission of guilt, a notable departure from standard practice. Opposition parties and oversight bodies are likely to push for any pardon to be conditional on Netanyahu accepting at least some of the charges against him, potentially including a ruling of “moral turpitude,” and agreeing to halt further judicial overhaul initiatives. A “moral turpitude” ruling would require Netanyahu to resign, making his acceptance unlikely. Any effort to secure a pardon without admitting guilt is likely to provoke renewed anti-government protests, as already observed on November 30. Overall, political tensions surrounding the request are expected to remain high in the coming weeks.

Current Situation – The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), in coordination with the Israel Police Counterterrorism Unit (Yamam) and the Shin Bet, arrested a five-member militant cell that was plotting an attack in the immediate term. Bartaa village straddles the Green Line and is partly located in the West Bank and partly in Israel.

Assessment & Forecast – The latest arrest comes amid the IDF’s ongoing Operation “Five Stones” in the northern West Bank, launched on November 26, as well as a broader intensified campaign to curb militant activity in the West Bank following a series of attacks on Israeli civilians and security personnel over the past year. The arrests in Bartaa indicate the tactical success of the operation, particularly given the cell’s plans to conduct an imminent attack, which highlights both the operational intent and the resilience of local militant networks despite sustained IDF pressure. More broadly, the incident underscores the continued elevated threat posed by Palestinian militants seeking to infiltrate Israel from the West Bank to conduct attacks. Consequently, further IDF raids and counterterrorism operations are likely in the West Bank over the coming weeks and months.

Current Situation – US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that US troops, in coordination with Syria’s Ministry of Interior (MoI), located and destroyed more than 15 Islamic State (IS) weapons-cache sites in Rif Dimashq Province between November 24–27. The operations included airstrikes and ground detonations, destroying over 130 mortars and rockets, firearms, and explosive-making material.

Assessments & Forecast – This comes shortly after Syria joined the US-led anti-IS coalition. CENTCOM’s current press release marks the first instance in which it has explicitly announced joint anti-IS operations with Syria’s MoI. In this context, the operations indicate that both sides have formally resumed cooperation in countering the IS threat in the country, evidenced by recent attacks and plots, including those targeting President al-Sharaa. The location of the operations in Rif Dimashq is notable, as it falls outside CENTCOM’s usual theatre of operations and suggests that IS retains operational infrastructure there, which could potentially facilitate attacks close to the capital. This underscores the group’s enduring capacity to conduct high-impact attacks if left unchecked, which will reinforce the mutual incentive for both Washington and Damascus to conduct similar operations over the coming months.

Current Situation – The Hikmat al-Hijri-led Druze National Guard announced that it detained individuals allegedly planning to carry out “a serious internal security breach,” accusing them of “high treason.” An unconfirmed report indicated that the suspects were plotting a coup against senior Druze leaders. As-Suweida’s Internal Security Forces (ISF) director Suleiman Abdul Baqi accused the National Guard of acting as an armed militia and stated that ISF-affiliated Druze personnel would respond.

Assessments & Forecast – The National Guard’s security operation emphasizes the Druze armed faction’s ability to operate with increasing autonomy, underscoring the significant fragmentation of the security landscape in as-Suweida province. The militia’s accusations of treason highlight its efforts to boost its authority and eliminate perceived threats and rivals. Meanwhile, Baqi’s response suggests that the ISF may seek to intensify its involvement in the province to bolster Damascus’ control. The Syrian government will likely frame any intervention as an effort to stabilize the region, although the entrenchment of Druze armed groups will continue to pose challenges. Overall, the development points to persistent intra-communal fissures amid the lack of a unified security structure in the province, increasing the risk of renewed localized hostilities.

Current Situation – Authorities arrested prominent opposition figure Chaima Issa during a protest in Tunis, where hundreds reportedly demonstrated against perceived restrictions on freedom of expression in the country.

Assessments & Forecast – The arrest comes just one day after an appeals court sentenced Issa to 20 years in prison, alongside similarly long sentences for several others in the “Conspiracy Against State Security” case. In recent years, multiple prominent Tunisian opposition activists have received comparable sentences on charges such as “conspiracy against state security” and “belonging to a terrorist group.” In this context, the latest arrest likely underscores the government’s continued efforts to deter dissent by imposing conspicuous and punitive measures on its critics. The decision to detain Issa during the protest further reflects a broader strategy of intimidation aimed at discouraging participation in anti-government activism amid regular protests denouncing a perceived clampdown on civil liberties. These developments are likely to reinforce both domestic and international perceptions of President Kais Saied’s increasingly authoritarian governance, thereby exacerbating anti-government sentiment and sustaining ongoing opposition protests. Consequently, further arrests of opposition figures and activists are likely in the coming months.

Current Situation – Hadhramaut Tribal Alliance (HTA) leader Amr Bin Habrish announced that HTA-aligned Hadhramaut Protection Forces had taken control of the fields “for the purpose of enhancing security and defending the national wealth from any aggression or external interference.” The Presidential Command Council (PCC) reportedly ordered preparations for a military operation to remove HTA forces from the facilities.

Assessments & Forecast – Tensions between HTA and PCC have remained high since the beginning of the year, with the HTA accusing the latter of controlling the governorate’s oil resources and diverting revenues away from local services. In this context, the latest seizure reflects long-standing grievances and how these tensions escalate into high-impact actions used as leverage against the PCC. The move also comes shortly after an STC commander warned that the HTA would not be allowed to expand its presence in the governorate. Taken together, the seizure likely signals the HTA’s intent to project defiance and showcase its capability and willingness to impose tangible costs, evidenced by significant electricity disruptions following the seizure, if its demands are perceived to be sidelined. Tensions are likely to persist in the coming days.