The following report reviews current events in the MENA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security.

• Gulf of Oman: Explosion damages Bahama-flagged Israeli-owned cargo ship in Gulf of Oman, per February 26 reports; review security protocols
• Algeria: Police use tear gas, batons to disperse anti-government protesters in Algiers on February 26; further large-scale protests likely
• Egypt: Two civilians wounded in shooting attack in Alexandria’s el-Agamy city on February 25; shows risk of collateral damage
• Israel & Palestinian Territories: Israeli citizen indicted on February 26 for providing intelligence to Hamas; Hamas’ efforts to persist
• Palestinian Territories & Qatar: Qatar pledges on February 25 60 million USD to fund Israel-Gaza pipeline; Qatari support for Gaza to persist

Gulf of Oman: Explosion damages Bahama-flagged Israeli-owned cargo ship in Gulf of Oman, per February 26 reports; review security protocols

The explosion resulted in several holes at the side of the ship. However, no casualties were recorded among the crew members. The ship’s owner stated that it was likely caused by “missiles or mines”. The ship had reportedly deported Saudi Arabia’s Dammam Port and was enroute to Singapore.

This is notable given the infrequency of security incidents in the Gulf of Oman. It highlights the risk to maritime navigation in this region. Given precedent and the current tensions between Iran and the US, should it be confirmed that the explosion was caused by a deliberate attack, it would most likely have been conducted by Iran or its backed forces. This is bolstered by the fact that the Iran-backed Yemen-based Houthis frequently plant naval mines and deploy explosive-laden boats in the Red Sea. Such attacks likely aim to increase the risk to commercial shipping in the region, to adversely impact the economies of US allies in the Middle East. The US and its allies will likely bolster their military presence in the Gulf of Oman to mitigate this underlying risk to maritime navigation.

Those managing or operating vessels in the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz are advised to exercise heightened caution and take necessary precautions, including reviewing security protocols and adhering to international instructions in light of the increased threat in the area.

Algeria: Police use tear gas, batons to disperse anti-government protesters in Algiers on February 26; further large-scale protests likely

Thousands of “Hirak” protesters gathered in Algiers and across other provinces in Algeria, demanding a “civil state, not a military state”.

This development follows the two-year anniversary of the anti-government protest movement, which erupted on February 22, 2019. In this context, while the momentum of the demonstrations subsided over the past year amid the COVID-19-related restrictions on movement, thousands had protested across Algeria on February 22. The scale of the latest protest can be attributed to the fact that, at the peak of the “Hirak” movement, large-scale protests took place on a weekly basis on Tuesdays and Fridays. Hence, the latest demonstrations likely constitute a symbolic indication of the resumption of the anti-government movement. The fact that the protesters have continued to demand a “civil state”, particularly following the release of dozens of anti-government activists on February 18, indicates their continued perception of the government’s “authoritarian” nature. This conviction will be further exacerbated by the authorities’ use of tear gas in Algiers. Therefore, additional large-scale “Hirak” protests are likely across Algeria in the coming days and weeks.

Egypt: Two civilians wounded in shooting attack in Alexandria’s el-Agamy city on February 25; shows risk of collateral damage

The perpetrator reportedly opened fire on citizens on the al-Bitash street because they “flirted” with his wife. He further used a knife to intimidate the civilians. The authorities were able to stop and apprehend the suspect.

This development is highly notable due to the rarity of such security incidents in major areas of Egypt, including in Alexandria or Cairo governorates. However, given the niche background of the incident, it does not indicate a trend of such security incidents in major cities of the country. Regardless, this development highlights the broad risk posed to civilians operating in Egypt as a result of the proliferation of arms in the country. This is despite the fact that Egypt prohibits the acquisition or possession of firearms without a permit. While two civilians were wounded in the incident, the authorities’ ability to stop and apprehend the perpetrator showcases their heightened vigilance of security risks in and around major cities, namely Alexandria and Cairo. Nonetheless, given the accessibility to firearms in Egypt, the possibility of adding such sporadic shooting incidents cannot be excluded over the coming months.

Iran: Security forces use live fire to disperse protesters in Sistan-Baluchestan’s Rudbar on February 26; likely to further elevate tensions

The protest was held to denounce the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) killing of several Balochi fuel smugglers near the Pakistani border on February 22. Protesters also set tire fires along streets in Zahedan on February 25. Further reports from February 26 indicate that the authorities disrupted internet services in some cities province, including Saravan and Zahedan.

Daily protests have been recorded in multiple cities of Sistan-Baluchestan Province since the aforementioned killing of the fuel smugglers. The persistent and unruly nature of these protests highlights the extent of the locals’ grievances regarding the authorities’ perceived excessive use of force. This can be attributed to the fact that the locals rely on illicit smuggling activity for income and therefore perceive the February 22 incident as a further marginalization of the local Balochi population by the Iranian authorities. In this context, the use of live fire to disperse the protesters in the latest incident will likely further elevate tensions between the authorities and the locals. This will therefore likely trigger additional unruly demonstrations across cities in Sistan-Baluchestan Province over the coming days.

Iraq: Two IED attacks target US-led Coalition logistical convoys in Baghdad, Babil provinces on February 25; similar attacks likely to recur

The attack in Baghdad Province took place in Yusufiyah, located about 30 km southwest of the capital. The attack in Babil Province took place on an unspecified highway. No casualties have been reported as a result of the attacks.

This comes amid persistent attacks targeting US-led Coalition’s logistical support convoys across Iraq. For instance, on February 17-18, similar IED attacks were conducted against US-led coalition-linked convoys in Basra and Dhi Qar provinces. Such attacks are conducted by Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq, as they aim to compel the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq. These efforts recently manifested in the form of rocket attacks targeting a US base near Erbil International Airport and Salahuddin’s Balad Air Base on February 15 and 20 respectively. Both attacks resulted in US casualties. The latest IED attacks further highlight the ability of Shitte militias to gather intelligence on the movement of US-linked assets in the country and therefore the persistent risk to US interests in Iraq. Overall, further IED attacks against US-linked convoys are likely to be recorded in the coming days and weeks.

Israel & Palestinian Territories: Israeli citizen indicted on February 26 for providing intelligence to Hamas; Hamas’ efforts to persist

According to reports citing Israel’s Security Agency (Shin Bet), the individual was recruited by Hamas 18 months ago to gather information on the position of Iron Dome assets. He was permitted to travel from the Gaza Strip to central Israel’s Rehovot on a regular basis because his father is an Israeli Bedouin and his mother is Gazan. He was arrested on February 3.

This development comes amid Hamas’ persistent efforts to recruit operatives to gain intelligence for acts of militancy against Israel. On January 25, Shin Bet similarly reported on the arrest of two Israeli citizens that were tasked by Hamas with filming security installations “including Iron Dome placements”. The group seeks intelligence on the Iron Dome to improve the accuracy of rocket attacks launched towards Israel. The incident further showcases Hamas’ ability to capitalize on the anti-Israel grievances prevalent among Israeli Arab citizens in order to bolster their operations. While this arrest indicates the Shin Bet’s ability to gather intelligence on such threats, Hamas will nonetheless continue its recruitment efforts in Israel over the coming months.

Lebanon: Authorities seize arms, ammunition in Bekaa’s Bar Elias, Taalabaya on February 25; shows persistent insecurity in region

According to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) stated the authorities discovered ammunition, trinitrotoluene (TNT) explosives, detonators, mortars, mines, and hand grenades during the raids, which targeted the houses of two Palestinians. The suspects were arrested and are currently under investigation.

This development comes amid the wide proliferation of arms and ammunition in areas along the Lebanon-Syria border. This can be attributed to the cross-border smuggling operations that take place along the border regions. While the background of the suspects remains unspecified at the time of writing, it nonetheless highlights the risk posed due to the precarious security environment of the region. This is because local groups are often known to use such weaponry during personal disputes, which poses the risk of collateral damage. The suspects may also be linked with the Islamic State (IS), as evidenced by the arrest of 22 IS-linked militants in Arsal, located about 65 km northwest of Bar Elias, over the past month. Overall, despite the authorities’ operations, lawlessness and insecurity will likely persist in the regions along the Lebanon-Syria border over the coming weeks and months.

Palestinian Territories & Qatar: Qatar pledges on February 25 60 million USD to fund Israel-Gaza pipeline; Qatari support for Gaza to persist

The amount will be allocated towards extending gas pipelines from Israel to the Gaza Strip. Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh stated that the project will “completely” resolve the electricity crisis in Gaza.

This follows the February 14 announcement by Qatar’s envoy to the Gaza Strip, Mohammed al-Emad, of an agreement to supply Israeli gas to the Gaza Strip. The latest pledge of funds therefore indicates the momentum of the project’s progression. This may be attributed to the “convergence” of Israeli, Palestinian, Qatari, and European interests in recent weeks, according to reports citing Israeli officials. Israel’s interest in the project may be attributed to its perception that socio-economic stability in the Gaza Strip will result in a long-term ceasefire with Hamas. This is particularly given that Gaza’s power stations currently only produce electricity for about 12 hours per day on diesel. Given Qatar’s interest in bolstering its influence in the Gaza Strip, it will likely seek to further support the Gaza Strip’s energy projects over the coming days and weeks to alleviate the severe electricity crisis in the region.

Syria: At least 12 civilians killed, wounded in VBIED attack in Hasakah’s Ras al-Ayn on February 25; likely perpetrated by IS

The vehicle-borne IED (VBIED) explosion reportedly materialized in the al-Farouj commercial market, located about 50 meters south of Highway 712, which connects Qamishli Provinces’s Nusaybin in the east to Raqqa Province’s Tal Abyad in the west.

This incident comes amid frequent acts of militancy in territories controlled by the Turkish-backed forces in northern Syria, including in Hasakah’s Ras al-Ayn. On January 2, a similar VBIED attack took place near a local vegetable market in the city, resulting in at least 20 civilian casualties. The latest attack was likely conducted by Islamic State (IS) militants, as they are known to use VBIEDs in their operations. Moreover, the fact that it occurred in a commercial marketplace indicates that the attack intended to maximize casualties among civilians, which is consistent with IS’s operational methodology. However, it is also possible that the attack was perpetrated by Kurdish militants intending to target Turkish-backed positions located nearby. Regardless, such attacks destabilize the security situation in Turkish-held territories. Overall, further acts of militancy will be recorded in Hasakah Province over the coming days and weeks.

Syria: Pro-government forces conduct aerial, on-ground anti-IS operations in Badia desert area on February 25; IS operations to persist

Syria’s official news agency reported that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) destroyed several Islamic State (IS) hideouts. The Russian Air Force reportedly conducted airstrikes targeting IS positions, with an unconfirmed report indicating that over 250 strikes were conducted over the past 48 hours in areas of Deir Ezzor, Aleppo, Hama, Raqqa, and Homs provinces.

These anti-IS operations come amid an increase in the scope of IS attacks in northern and central Syria, predominantly in the Badia desert region, over the past months. For instance, on February 20-21, IS reportedly targeted pro-government Iran-backed militias near Arak oil field in Homs Province and killed four fighters in Deir Ezzor’s Ashrarah. In this context, the dismantling of IS hideouts, which contained large quantities of arms and ammunition, across the Badia desert constitutes an effort to diminish the Sunni militant group’s capabilities. However, the fact that IS operations have persisted despite the pro-government forces’ sustained anti-IS campaign underscores the militant group’s ability to maintain its operational capacities in the region. Therefore, IS-perpetrated attacks will persist in the Badia desert over the coming weeks and months.

Turkey: Authorities announce on February 25 arrest of IS militant ‘observing’ military zone in Istanbul; shows underlying threat of militancy

The security forces arrested the individual on February 20 after they noticed him on a tree near a military zone watching the military’s activities in Bahcelievler District. He was arrested while “exploring” the area around a police station and was later identified as a member of Islamic State (IS).

While counter-militancy operations targeting suspected IS militants are frequently recorded in Istanbul, the latest incident is noteworthy as the militant seemingly sought to gather intelligence on military and police installations. While there is no indication that the arrestee in the latest instance possessed any weapons, and therefore did not pose an imminent threat, his reconnaissance activities indicate that he was possibly seeking to plot a future militant attack. While this does not necessarily indicate an elevated militant threat in Istanbul, the fact that authorities have arrested several IS-linked elements in the city over recent months underscores their entrenchment and therefore the underlying threat of IS militancy in Istanbul, which constitutes a strategic target for attack. Security forces will likely seek to identify and capture potential collaborators over the coming days.

March 3

• Iraq: Rebellion Anniversary

March 7

• Qatar: March Bank Holiday

March 8

• Syria: Revolution Day

March 11

• Kuwait: Is Isra and Miraj
• Oman: Is Isra and Miraj