The following report reviews current events in the MENA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security.

• Algeria: Low voter turnout recorded at municipal, provincial elections held on November 27; shows disillusionment with political system
• Libya: Tripoli Appeals Court accepts appeal filed against Dbeibah’s candidacy for presidential elections on November 28; may trigger unrest
• Morocco: Authorities suspend direct flights to Morocco from November 29 until December 13; reconfirm travel itineraries
• Morocco: RMA conducts UAV strikes on Sahrawi citizens in Western Sahara on November 27, per Algerian reports; unlikely to change status-quo
• Tunisia: UGTT Secretary-General receives death threat in Ben Arous Governorate’s Fouchana on November 28; likely politically motivated

Morocco: Authorities suspend direct flights to Morocco from November 29 until December 13; reconfirm travel itineraries

According to the official news agency, all direct passenger flights to Morocco will be suspended from 23:59 (local time) on November 29 until 23:59 on December 13. This measure is being implemented over concerns regarding the spread of the “Omicron” strain of the COVID-19 virus. The authorities will evaluate the regulation’s impact and may adjust it over the coming days and weeks.

Those planning to travel to Morocco over the coming weeks are advised to reconfirm their travel itineraries as well as remain cognizant of the authorities’ updates regarding entry regulations, vaccination requirements, and other health procedures as these are subject to change.

Algeria: Low voter turnout recorded at municipal, provincial elections held on November 27; shows disillusionment with political system

The combined voter turnout for the Communal People’s Assemblies (APC) was 35.97 percent, and the combined voter turnout for the Wilaya People’s Assemblies (APW) was 34.39 percent. In Guezzam and Bordj Badji Mokhtar provinces recorded the highest voter turnouts, while Algiers and Tizi Ouzou provinces recorded the lowest voter turnouts. Local assemblies elect two-thirds of the members of the Council of the Nation, the Upper House of the parliament.

This highlights the local population’s continued disillusionment with the political system in Algeria, despite President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s recent reforms. This included the holding of early legislative elections in June, which saw independent candidates win an overwhelming majority of the vote. This disillusionment can largely be attributed to Tebboune’s crackdown on journalists and activists in recent months, which has been perceived by large segments of society as similar to the policies of the former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s administration and therefore not reflective of real change. The fact that Algiers witnessed the lowest voter turnout is significant as the capital’s population is generally considered the most politically involved. This will undermine the electoral process.

Iraq: IED attack targets Iraqi logistical convoy in Diwaniyah Province on November 28; attacks to persist

According to Iraq’s Security Media Cell, the attack targeted a convoy transporting equipment to Iraqi security forces. The convoy incurred material damage but the attack did not cause casualties. Meanwhile, media affiliated with Iran-backed Shiite militias reported that the Shiite militia, Ashab al-Kahf, claimed the attack, alleging it targeted a US-led Coalition-linked convoy.

Attacks targeting US-led Coalition-linked convoys are recorded on a near-daily basis in Iraq and are mainly conducted by local Iran-backed Shiite militias. The goal of these attacks is to pressure the US to withdraw its forces from Iraq. Given that these IEDs are usually placed along roads and thus could be triggered by other vehicles, it cannot be ruled out that the Iraqi convoy was not specifically targeted. Alternatively, it is possible that Ashab al-Kahf conducted this attack based on the perception that Iraqi security forces are legitimate targets for attacks as they provide logistical support to the US-led Coalition in the country. Given that the attack did not cause significant damage, major retaliatory action by Iraqi forces is unlikely. Nevertheless, additional attacks against US-led Coalition-linked convoys will occur over the coming weeks.

Iraq: IS kills five Peshmerga forces in Diyala’s Kifri District on November 27; facilitated by security vacuum in region

Islamic State (IS) militants detonated an explosive as a Peshmerga vehicle passed Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)-administered Kulajo, located near Iraqi Federal Government-controlled territory. Four additional personnel were wounded. KRG Spokesperson, Jotiar Adil, stated that the KRG had repeatedly highlighted the existence of a security vacuum in the region and that it “insisted” on establishing joint security facilities between the KRG’s Peshmerga and the Federal Government’s Iraqi Security Forces (ISF).

Successful IS attacks within KRG-controlled territory are rare. However, IS remains entrenched in northern Iraqi territories that are disputed between the KRG and the Federal Government and strives to attack Peshmerga forces. On October 31, IS claimed the killing of three Peshmerga fighters in the disputed Altun Kupri District, located on the Erbil-Kirkuk Road. The IS fighters’ ability to operate in the region is facilitated by sovereignty disputes between Erbil and Baghdad, which impede joint Peshmerga-ISF operations against IS. Adil’s statement shows the KRG’s effort to portray Baghdad as responsible for this lack of security cooperation. IS will continue to capitalize on the security vacuum in the region to conduct further attacks against Peshmerga forces.

Libya: Tripoli Appeals Court accepts appeal filed against Dbeibah’s candidacy for presidential elections on November 28; may trigger unrest

The Tripoli Appeals Court accepted two appeals filed against the Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister (PM), Abdel Hamid al-Dbeibah. The first was filed by three presidential candidates and two Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) members while the second appeal was filed by former Government of National Accord (GNA) Minister of Interior, Fathi Bashagha. The Tripoli Appeals Court rejected an appeal filed against Libyan National Army (LNA) leader, Khalifa Haftar, stating that an appeal against Haftar must be filed at the Benghazi Appeals Court.

Although the appeals against Dbeibah were filed on the basis that his candidacy violates the LPDF Roadmap and the presidential election law, Bashagha’s actions were also likely politically motivated. Bashagha is running in the upcoming elections and holds influence in western Libya but this is mainly constrained to Misrata. Meanwhile, Dbeibah has recently gained significant popularity in western Libya, particularly Tripoli, which could cut into Bashagha’s support base. Given Dbeibah’s growing popularity in western Libya, this development has the potential to trigger unrest in this region over the coming days.

Morocco: RMA conducts UAV strikes on Sahrawi citizens in Western Sahara on November 27, per Algerian reports; unlikely to change status-quo

Algeria’s official news agency reported that a Royal Moroccan Army (RMA) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strike on a vehicle killed one teenager and wounded other individuals in Western Sahara’s Agounit, approximately five km west of the Mauritanian border.

This follows a similar UAV strike reported in Oued Eddahab’s Mijik on November 14, which killed three Algerian nationals, according to Algiers. The Sahrawi People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), the Algeria-backed Polisario Front’s armed wing, and the RMA have been engaged in near-daily armed conflict along the “Berm” in Western Sahara since November 2020. Given that the RMA possesses sophisticated UAVs and has previously targeted SPLA-linked, the Algerian reports are somewhat credible. While it is unknown whether the attack was deliberate, it is possible that RMA targeted the vehicle after obtaining intelligence that they were carrying weapons or personnel affiliated with the SPLA. Algiers likely seeks to showcase Rabat’s human rights violations and portray the Kingdom as a destabilizing force in the region by reporting on such an incident. Nevertheless, this attack is unlikely to change the current status-quo in Western Sahara.

Syria: Four killed in bomb attack in Aleppo’s Manbij on November 28; notable given rarity of such incidents in city

A vehicle reportedly exploded as a result of the bomb detonation. Three more civilians were wounded. The Manbij Military Council (MMC) described the incident as an “act of terrorism”. A co-chair of Manbij’s Executive Council stated that it had targeted a “family of seven”. Authorities have not stated whether the bomb was attached to the vehicle or placed on the road.

Bomb explosions have rarely been reported in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled Manbij over the past year, highlighting the city’s relatively stable security environment. That said, as shown by a March 2 IED attack near a mosque in Manbij, such occurrences are not unprecedented. Despite the MMC’s incident depiction as militancy, the apparent specific targeting of a family suggests a criminal background. This is because militant groups, such as the Islamic State (IS), typically target government-affiliated assets or seek indiscriminate attacks. The fact that the co-chair mentioned Turkish attempts to destabilize the region in her statement suggests the administration’s attempt to galvanize domestic support by portraying Ankara as orchestrating attacks. Regardless, the incident does not indicate an increased threat of attacks in Manbij.

Tunisia: UGTT Secretary-General receives death threat in Ben Arous Governorate’s Fouchana on November 28; likely politically motivated

The Secretary-General of the Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT), Noureddine Taboubi, received the death threat while at a café. The individual was reportedly carrying a Quran and has been classified as a “Salafist”. He has been arrested by security forces.

This comes amid major political instability in Tunisia since President Kais Saied suspended the parliament in July. Although the UGTT’s stance vis-à-vis these developments has been largely vague, Taboubi met with Saied on November 14 following which he announced that the UGTT is “not at odds with the presidency” and that the old parliament must not be reinstated. He rather supported Saied’s decision to hold early legislative elections. Although the individual who threatened Taboubi has been classified a “Salafist”, the evidence suggesting this is circumstantial. Therefore, it is more likely that he threatened Taboubi for the latter’s pro-Saied stance. This is particularly considering that anti-Saied sentiments in Tunisia have been on the rise in recent weeks. The individual likely did not pose a threat as he was not found in possession of weapons. Nevertheless, security protocols surrounding high-profile political figures will likely be increased in the coming days.

Yemen & Saudi Arabia: Coalition conducts airstrikes in Sanaa on November 28; marks uptick in strikes in Sanaa

The official Saudi news agency stated that Coalition forces struck the al-Dailami base in Sanaa, in addition to other unspecified targets near Sanaa International Airport. The Coalition spokesperson stated that the sites were being used to store ballistic missiles.

This development marks an uptick in Coalition airstrikes targeting Houthi-controlled Sanaa and comes against the backdrop of repeated cross-border Houthi aerial attacks against Saudi Arabia. The targeting of infrastructure related to ballistic missiles highlights Riyadh’s belief that the Houthis store these arms within strategic sites in Sanaa. This was highlighted in a UAV attack against Najran on November 21, which Riyadh stated was launched from the Sanaa International Airport. These airstrikes further highlight that the Kingdom is dedicating significant resources to gain intelligence on the sites used by the Houthis to store and manufacture strategic armaments in an overall effort to hinder the Shiite group’s ability to launch attacks into the country. Additional such strikes in Sanaa will likely be recorded over the coming days, encouraging further the Houthis to target strategic sites located in the Kingdom in retaliation.  

Yemen: Anti-Houthi forces claim territorial advances west of Taiz city on November 27; hostilities to continue in area

Anti-Houthi forces have claimed to have captured swathes of territory in the northern parts of Maqbanah District, located northwest of Taiz city, and that they were advancing towards areas within Taiz and Ibb governorates. This development comes amid ongoing hostilities and repeated claims of territorial gains by anti-Houthi forces in areas in the southern edge of Hodeidah Governorate, including in Jabal Ras and Hays districts, located close to Hays city. This is ongoing since anti-Houthi forces have retreated from the areas surrounding Hodeidah city itself, approximately 100 km to the south of the port city. Territorial advances are hard to make in this area as the anti-Houthi coalition attempt to advance eastwards into higher grounds from the shallows of the coastal line, where Hays city is located. Territorial control over elevated territory constitutes one of the most significant advantages the Houthis enjoy. Territorial gains such as the current claimed are also often prone to be reversed in further battle. Regardless, hostilities in the area will persist over the coming days and weeks.

November 28-December 6

• Israel: Hanukkah

November 30

• UAE: Martyrs’ Day
• Yemen: Independence Day

December 2

• UAE: National Day

December 3-5

• Saudi Arabia: F1 Grand Prix

December 10

• Iraq: Victory Day

December 12

UAE: F1 Grand Prix