The following report reviews current events in the MENA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security.

• Israel & Palestinian Territories: Israel approves lifting of restrictions on Gaza Strip on August 31; tensions to persist
• Libya: Clashes reported outside Administrative Control Authority on Tripoli’s Jumhuriya Street; shows risk of hostilities due to power struggle
• Libya: GNU Minister of Oil suspends NOC chairman Mustafa Sanallah, per August 30 reports; will cause volatility within oil sector
• Syria: Airstrikes attributed to Russia target Faylaq al-Sham camp in Aleppo’s Afrin District on August 31; Turkish retaliation unlikely
• Turkey & UAE: Erdogan holds rare phone call with UAE’s Crown Prince on August 31; shows accelerated effort to bolster ties

Bahrain: Red list to be updated from September 3 onwards; remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions

According to an update by the Civil Aviation Affairs (CAA), four countries: India, Pakistan, Panama, and the Dominican Republic will be removed from the Red List, while five countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Ethiopia, Costa Rica, and Ecuador, will be added to the Red List from September 3 onwards. Those who have spent any time in a Red List country, including for transit, during the 14 days prior to arrival in Bahrain will be refused entry unless they fall under the following categories: Bahraini citizens and residents, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) citizens who do not need visas, passengers eligible to obtain a visa on arrival, passengers with a valid electronic visa, military personnel, and airline crews. All arrivals from Red List countries that fall under these categories must present a PCR test taken no more than 48 hours before boarding, and take three additional PCR tests; one upon arrival, the fifth day, and the tenth day, respectively. All travelers arriving from Red List countries are required to undergo mandatory quarantine for ten days regardless of their citizenship and vaccination status.

Those planning to travel to and from Bahrain from September 3 onwards are advised to remain apprised of government updates with regards to entry, vaccination, and COVID-19 testing requirements as well as quarantine regulations to ensure business continuity.

Libya: Airport Road in Tripoli partially closed until 18:00 (local time) on September 3; seek alternative routes

The General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) has announced that the Airport Road in Tripoli is closed from the intersection of Sidi Sleem Street to the Equestrian Bridge, a two-km stretch located roughly 10-12 km north of Tripoli International Airport. The road closure has been implemented to carry out maintenance work on power transmission lines in the area.

Those residing or operating in Tripoli between September 1-3 are advised to allot extra time for travel along the entire stretch of the Airport Road due to potential traffic congestion as a result of the partial road closure. Seek alternative routes.

Israel & Palestinian Territories: Israel approves lifting of restrictions on Gaza Strip on August 31; tensions to persist

The concessions include the extension of the Gaza Strip’s fishing zone, reportedly to the furthest point since 2007, as well as an increase in water supply and imports of goods and construction materials through the Kerem Shalom border-crossing. An additional 5,000 workers from Gaza will be allowed to enter Israel. Meanwhile, a Palestinian was reportedly killed during riots along the Israel-Gaza border fence on August 31.

This announcement constitutes the fourth round of easing of restrictions on the Gaza Strip by Jerusalem in August. It comes amid particularly heightened tensions along the Israel-Gaza border, with four consecutive nights of riots recorded along the border fence and persistent launches of incendiary balloons into Israel. This has prompted retaliatory Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. The latest lifting of restrictions by Israel is thus likely an effort to incentivize Hamas to de-escalate the situation by preventing the gathering of Gazans along the border fence. However, as evidenced by a reported planned protest along the border on September 2, this strategy is unlikely to yield a de-escalation. Thus, tensions along the Israel-Gaza border will persist over the coming days.

Israel & Palestinian Territories: Israel offers 155 million USD loan to PA, per August 30 reports; effort to stabilize PA

According to Israeli Defence Minister, Benny Gantz, Jerusalem will also grant 16,000 additional Israeli work permits to Palestinian residents of the West Bank and approve more building permits to Palestinians in the West Bank’s Area C, which falls under Israeli civilian and military control.

This follows a meeting between Gantz and PA President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah on August 29, following which Gantz highlighted Israel’s desire to bolster the PA’s economy. The offered loan shows that the Naftali Bennet-led Israeli government is ready to extend substantial assistance to the PA, which is currently facing major economic challenges. The fact that the loan will reportedly be paid off from confiscated Palestinian tax revenue, which Israel withheld to sanction the PA’s payments to Palestinians involved in attacks against Israelis, underscores the Bennett-led government’s substantial efforts to stabilize the PA. This is even though the decision may be unpopular among segments of the Israeli public. The announced approval of additional building permits also signals the Israeli government’s readiness to offer symbolic political concessions to Palestinians. However, this does not herald a broader resumption of Israel-PA dialogue to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Libya: Clashes reported outside Administrative Control Authority on Tripoli’s Jumhuriya Street; shows risk of hostilities due to power struggle

The clashes occurred between a militia backing Suleiman al-Shanti, the Head of the Administrative Control Authority, and another backing his deputy, Khaled Saeed. An unspecified number of people on both sides were wounded. The Administrative Control Authority released a statement condemning Saeed for his attempt to storm the building.

This comes amid an ongoing dispute between al-Shanti and Saeed over control of the Administrative Control Authority. Saeed claims that as al-Shanti has reached the age of retirement, his tenure and decisions are no longer valid. Suleiman al-Shanti is possibly backed by the Abdel Ghani al-Kikli-led Stability Support Apparatus (SSA) as the latter is responsible for securing the Government of National Unity (GNU)-linked personnel and assets in Tripoli. Regardless, this incident highlights the potential for power struggles in Tripoli to devolve into violent clashes due to political actors’ willingness to use armed militias for personal gain. As the GNU and the 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) remain unable to demilitarize such militias, such clashes will recur in and around Tripoli over the coming weeks and pose a risk of collateral damage to civilians and strategic infrastructure.

Libya: GNU Minister of Oil suspends NOC chairman Mustafa Sanallah, per August 30 reports; will cause volatility within oil sector

The National Oil Corporation (NOC) chairman was suspended for traveling abroad without authorization. Government of National Unity (GNU) Minister of Oil, Mohammed Oun, appointed Jadallah al-Awlaki, a member of the NOC’s board of directors, as interim chairman. However, al-Awlaki refused to take up the post. Sanallah rejected his suspension, stating that Oun lacks the authority to alter NOC appointments. GNU Prime Minister, Abdel Hamid al-Dbeibah, reportedly stated that he was not part of this decision.

Sanallah, who has retained his position as NOC chairman since 2014, has significant influence within Libya’s oil sector, which extends into the political sphere due to Libya’s dependency on oil revenues. This is underscored by al-Awlaki’s refusal to take up Sanallah’s post. Regardless of the official reason for Sanallah’s suspension, this move was likely politically-motivated and part of an effort by Oun to expand his control over the NOC. Dbeibah’s statement will reinforce Sanallah’s stance that Oun has no authority to alter NOC appointments. While Dbeibah will likely attempt to mediate between Oun and Sanallah to resolve this issue over the coming days, this development will create volatility within Libya’s oil sector.

Syria: Airstrikes attributed to Russia target Faylaq al-Sham camp in Aleppo’s Afrin District on August 31; Turkish retaliation unlikely

The airstrikes occurred in Iskan, about 15 km southwest of Afrin city. No casualties were reported as the fighters were training outside the camp. Faylaq al-Sham is considered one of Turkey’s closest proxy forces in Syria.

These airstrikes reportedly constitute the first such Russian action against Turkish-backed rebel infrastructure in Aleppo’s Afrin District since the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) captured the region from the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in March 2018. However, on October 26, 2020, Russian airstrikes targeted a Faylaq al-Sham headquarters in Idlib’s Kafr Tekharim. As this occurrence demonstrated Moscow’s readiness to cross Ankara’s “red lines”, reports attributing the current attack to Russia are credible. As Ankara and Moscow have major conflicting interests concerning their respective military engagement in Syria despite long-standing coordination, Russia possibly conducted the strikes to pressure Ankara into giving concessions. Their materialization at a time when the camp was deserted was potentially a deliberate effort to eschew casualties and send a warning. Thus, the incident will remain isolated and Turkey is unlikely to militarily respond against Russian interests in northwestern Syria.

Turkey & UAE: Erdogan holds rare phone call with UAE’s Crown Prince on August 31; shows accelerated effort to bolster ties

Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, discussed bilateral relations and regional developments. Meanwhile, Turkey announced that it will hold a second round of consultations with Egypt in Ankara between September 7-8.

This development follows a meeting in Ankara on August 18, wherein Erdogan hosted the UAE’s national security advisor for the first time in several years. Over the past decade, both countries have maintained an opposing stance on several regional issues, which has widened their diplomatic rift. The latest phone call with the Crown Prince, who is the de-facto leader of the UAE, thus highlights growing rapprochement between the two countries, which can be partly attributed to Ankara’s desire to boost the flow of investments from Abu Dhabi. Taken together with the second consultation with Egypt, this development shows a certain degree of success of Turkey’s recent foreign policy pivot towards its Arab neighbours and indicates Cairo’s and Abu Dhabi’s willingness to reciprocate Turkey’s overtures. Turkey and the UAE will likely attempt to accelerate their efforts to bolster ties in the coming months.

UAE: President issues decree on August 31 to increase accountability of ministers, officials; likely effort to boost foreign investment

The decree will enable the public prosecutor to investigate ministers and senior officials suspected of wrongdoing. In instances of administrative or financial violations, officials can be removed from their positions. The prosecutor can also impose a travel ban and freeze assets of any officials if “deemed necessary”.

Despite the UAE ranking as one of the least corrupt countries in the Middle East and North Africa, there is a perception that the nation is a hotspot for illicit financial activity. This has led the UAE to take a number of legislative measures aimed at combatting this negative image. For instance, in February, the authorities established a designated executive office to combat money laundering. Within this context, the latest measure can be perceived as an extension of the nation’s continued efforts to project an image of transparency and accountability. This is particularly important given the UAE’s desire to attract foreign investment in the country as it seeks to position itself as the economic hub of the region. Therefore, additional anti-corruption measures are likely to be announced in the coming months.

Yemen: Anti-Houthi forces claim territorial advances in southern Marib Governorate on August 30; back-and-forth hostilities to persist

Anti-Houthi forces claimed to have captured several sites in Rahba District during a counter-offensive maneuver.

This territorial exchange comes amid persistent fighting between the Houthi and anti-Houthi forces in Marib Governorate over recent months. Rahba District is situated north of Bayda Governorate and connects to both Marib city and Bayda city through the N17 and N6 highways, respectively. This makes Rabha a geographically strategic location as both highways are essential to the Houthis forces with regards to their ability to transport both personnel and weaponry to the front lines. By gaining control over Rahba and nearby districts, anti-Houthi forces will be able to establish a foothold along the border areas between Marib, Sanaa, and Bayda governorates and cut off the Shiite group’s supply lines between these fronts. This would significantly weaken the Houthis’ military capabilities and facilitate the launch of an offensive by anti-Houthi forces towards Houthi-held territories. Given the strategic importance of Rahba District, hostilities between the two warring parties are expected to persist in the area over the coming days and weeks.

September 6-8

• Israel: Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year)

September 9

• MENA: Islamic New Year

September 11

• Egypt: Norouz

September 15-16

• Morocco: National Teachers’ Strike

September 15-16

• Israel: Yom Kippur

September 16

• Libya: Martyrs’ Day