• On October 24, an Iraqi Shiite group named Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq announced that US bases in the UAE and Kuwait are considered “legitimate targets” due to Israel’s “killing, displacement, and destruction” of Palestinians.  
• This refers to Israel’s ongoing armed campaign against Palestinian militant factions in the Gaza Strip. 

Statement released by Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq

• Meanwhile, another relatively unknown militia called the “Liberation Movement of the Two Holy Mosques” claimed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks against US military personnel in Saudi Arabia’s al-Kharj and Dhahran on October 23. These attacks have not been independently corroborated. 

Statement released by “Liberation Movement of the Two Holy Mosques”

1. Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq is a largely obscure Shiite group believed to be based out of Iraq and linked to Iran and Iran-backed Iraqi groups such as Kataib Hezbollah (KH). The group has remained largely inactive in recent years, except during periods of heightened tensions between Iran and/or its proxies on one hand, and members of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen on the other. For instance, the group claimed responsibility in January 2021 for an attack in Riyadh involving UAVs, reportedly launched from Iraq and containing Iranian parts. Additionally, the group also claimed in February 2022 to have attacked the UAE in a similar UAV attack. However, the group has thus far refrained from publishing photo or video material depicting its personnel, arsenal, or the launching of such UAVs as part of its claims of the attacks. Such statements are typical of Iran-backed militias as part of their efforts to raise their profile and could constitute a symbolic threat by Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq amid heightened anti-US sentiment in the region.  
2. That said, despite the group’s relative obscurity and inactive nature, it is likely that Washington will perceive the recent threats as credible and not merely as rhetoric. This is considering an increase in UAV and rocket attacks by Iran-backed militias against US bases in Iraq and Syria since October 7 due to Washington’s perceived support for Israel in its ongoing campaign. Additionally, Washington’s perception of the threat will also be motivated by the relative proximity of Kuwait and UAE to Iraq, where Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq is believed to be based. This is also given that more established Iran-backed Iraqi militias such as KH, known to possess advanced UAV capabilities, may potentially conduct attacks against US interests in the name of Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq. This may aid such militias in exercising plausible deniability and preventing backlash against Baghdad, especially given that they possess a majority stake in the ruling coalition in Iraq. 
3. Overall, the threats point to the potential for the spillover of security threats to US-linked interests in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to Washington’s support for Jerusalem. They also point to attempts by the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance”, which comprises multiple militias, to project a unified front against the West in response to developments in Israel and the Palestinian Territories. FORECAST: Over the coming days, Washington may bolster its defensive measures at bases across the MENA region, including via the deployment of anti-UAV and/or anti-projectile systems. In the near to medium term, as the hostilities between Israel and Palestinian factions persist, there will remain an underlying threat of attacks targeting US interests across the region, especially in countries having Iran-backed militias or countries located in proximity to these militias. This potentially includes countries such as Saudi Arabia, especially given the uncorroborated claim of attack on October 23. 

1. Travel to the UAE, Kuwait, and the Gulf states may continue while adhering to security precautions. 
2. However, those operating or residing across the MENA region on October 25 and over the following days are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the potential for security incidents to materialize in the context of the Israel-Hamas conflict. 
3. Maintain heightened vigilance in particular around Western and/or Israeli diplomatic missions or US-affiliated bases across the MENA region given the possibility of security incidents erupting.   
4. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans.