Organized Crime

27
Feb 2024
13:13 UTC

Mexico Alert: Shooting incident recorded in high-end residential area in Tijuana, Baja California on February 26; does not reflect wider trend of attacks in gated residential communities

Current Situation

  • On February 26, seven assailants opened fire from their vehicle at a residence in Residencial Villa Toscana residential complex in Tijuana, Baja California. The armed criminals allegedly destroyed the gates of the residential complex and cut cables of security cameras installed in the area before initiating the attack. Following the shooting, the armed suspects fled the area in a white van. 
  • Police immediately responded to reports of gunshots and deployed special operational groups in the vicinity of the residential complex, prompting a chase and subsequent arrest of seven perpetrators in Colonia Davila. 
  • One of the arrested suspects, was injured by a gunshot wound. No other casualties or fatalities have been reported as of writing. Additionally, police seized eight firearms, three ballistic protection vests, and ammunition. 
  • The US Consulate in Tijuana issued a shelter-in-place for all US government employees as of 06:00 (local time) on February 26, about two hours following the shooting. 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Given the number of perpetrators involved, the nature of their entry into a high-end and secured area, in addition to the reported use of military-grade firearms, the attack was likely perpetrated by an established criminal group such as the Cartel de Sinaloa (CDS) and the Cartel Arellano Felix (CAF) that operate near the Mexico-USA border in Tijuana. 
  2. Considering that no fatalities were recorded, the incident was likely intimidatory in nature and possibly related to either extortion or illicit drug-trafficking operations, with unconfirmed reports suggesting that the attack targeted a local drug trafficker “El Toro”. With this, coupled with the arrest of the assailants, further instances of associated violence remains unlikely in the near term.
  3. Despite widespread cartel violence in Tijuana and the city recording the highest homicide rates per capita globally, with 138 cases per 100,000 inhabitants registered in 2023, shootings near high-end residential and commercial locations have mostly been rare and intimidatory in nature. This is evidenced by multiple perpetrators shooting at a children’s entertainment establishment in the Neidhart neighborhood on January 14, when hundreds of individuals were inside the venue; however, no injuries were reported. 
  4. It is important to note that tourists or foreign nationals are rarely targeted in such cartel related shootings. Nonetheless, given that shootings and turf wars commonly occur in public places across the city, the threat of spillover violence to bystanders will remain elevated. 
  5. Similar shootings and a landscape of continued insecurity carry the potential to trigger a bolstered security response, prompting subsequent traffic congestion near potential security checkpoints. This is evidenced by 2,000 additional military personnel deployed to reinforce current operational deployments across Tijuana as of February 11, to combat organized crime and associated violence, following reports of Tijuana being the most violent city in the world.  

Recommendations

  1. Travel to Tijuana can continue while remaining cognizant of a heightened threat of violence stemming from organized crime. 
  2. Remain cognizant of local media updates regarding areas with a significant cartel presence, given the dynamic nature of the violence.
  3. MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities in Mexico to facilitate contingency planning or provide custom travel risk assessments to meet your needs. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation

  • On February 26, seven assailants opened fire from their vehicle at a residence in Residencial Villa Toscana residential complex in Tijuana, Baja California. The armed criminals allegedly destroyed the gates of the residential complex and cut cables of security cameras installed in the area before initiating the attack. Following the shooting, the armed suspects fled the area in a white van. 
  • Police immediately responded to reports of gunshots and deployed special operational groups in the vicinity of the residential complex, prompting a chase and subsequent arrest of seven perpetrators in Colonia Davila. 
  • One of the arrested suspects, was injured by a gunshot wound. No other casualties or fatalities have been reported as of writing. Additionally, police seized eight firearms, three ballistic protection vests, and ammunition. 
  • The US Consulate in Tijuana issued a shelter-in-place for all US government employees as of 06:00 (local time) on February 26, about two hours following the shooting. 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Given the number of perpetrators involved, the nature of their entry into a high-end and secured area, in addition to the reported use of military-grade firearms, the attack was likely perpetrated by an established criminal group such as the Cartel de Sinaloa (CDS) and the Cartel Arellano Felix (CAF) that operate near the Mexico-USA border in Tijuana. 
  2. Considering that no fatalities were recorded, the incident was likely intimidatory in nature and possibly related to either extortion or illicit drug-trafficking operations, with unconfirmed reports suggesting that the attack targeted a local drug trafficker “El Toro”. With this, coupled with the arrest of the assailants, further instances of associated violence remains unlikely in the near term.
  3. Despite widespread cartel violence in Tijuana and the city recording the highest homicide rates per capita globally, with 138 cases per 100,000 inhabitants registered in 2023, shootings near high-end residential and commercial locations have mostly been rare and intimidatory in nature. This is evidenced by multiple perpetrators shooting at a children’s entertainment establishment in the Neidhart neighborhood on January 14, when hundreds of individuals were inside the venue; however, no injuries were reported. 
  4. It is important to note that tourists or foreign nationals are rarely targeted in such cartel related shootings. Nonetheless, given that shootings and turf wars commonly occur in public places across the city, the threat of spillover violence to bystanders will remain elevated. 
  5. Similar shootings and a landscape of continued insecurity carry the potential to trigger a bolstered security response, prompting subsequent traffic congestion near potential security checkpoints. This is evidenced by 2,000 additional military personnel deployed to reinforce current operational deployments across Tijuana as of February 11, to combat organized crime and associated violence, following reports of Tijuana being the most violent city in the world.  

Recommendations

  1. Travel to Tijuana can continue while remaining cognizant of a heightened threat of violence stemming from organized crime. 
  2. Remain cognizant of local media updates regarding areas with a significant cartel presence, given the dynamic nature of the violence.
  3. MAX Security has strong on-ground capabilities in Mexico to facilitate contingency planning or provide custom travel risk assessments to meet your needs. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434. 
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

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