Mexico Tactical: General elections slated to be held nationwide between 08:00-18:00 (local time) on June 2; maintain heightened vigilance

Jun 2024

10:19 UTC

Current Situation:

The general elections are slated to be held nationwide between 08:00-18:00 (local time) on June 2, with over 20,708 offices up for contestation, including the post for president. The main presidential candidates include frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Movimiento Regeneracion Nacional (MORENA) party, Xochitl Galvez of the opposition Fuerza y Corazon por Mexico coalition, and Jorge Alvarez Maynez of center-left Movimiento Ciudadano.
Over 170,858 polling stations will be installed across Mexico. More than 300,000 security elements from the federal, state, and municipal governments are slated to monitor the elections on June 2. Over 233,000 officials will lead surveillance activities nationwide.
In Mexico City, over 15,000 police officers, 1,160 vehicles, 50 motorcycle patrols, and aerial drones will be deployed to the 13,431 polling stations across the city starting from 05:00 on June 2. These personnel will conduct surveillance and perimeter security at voting stations.
In Mexico City, the sale of alcoholic beverages at wineries, grocery stores, and any other similar establishment will remain suspended from 00:01 on June 1 until 11:59 on June 2. Similarly, consumption outside establishments is also prohibited during the said timings. Other states which will have the dry law are Quintana Roo, State of Mexico, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, and Sinaloa among others as of writing. However, the timings will vary.
In addition, cyber patrols will monitor and prevent circulation of disinformation and fake news about the elections and the security situation at polling stations, which could impact voter turnouts.

Assessments & Forecast:

While political rallies, vehicle caravans, and campaigns have officially ended since May 28, small-scale demonstrations and gatherings in support of presidential candidates remain likely near electoral buildings. That said, the potential for large-scale protests denouncing or supporting a particular candidate remains unlikely, given the rarity of the same in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, the bolstered security deployment nationwide is likely in response to the significantly elevated threat of violence targeting candidates, electoral candidates, and polling officers. This is supported by the fact that over 60 attacks and at least 29 killed in political violence-related attacks have been recorded during the electoral period that started in June 2023 and the assassination of Alma Rosa Barragan, mayoral candidate for Moroleon, Guanajuato during June 6, 2021 local elections.
In addition, organized crime groups are anticipated to establish roadblocks near polling stations, steal and destroy voting materials including equipment and ballots, and leave human remains near polling stations as an intimidatory tactic. This is supported by similar incidents being recorded in 525 municipalities during the 2021 elections, including criminal groups opening fire at ballots and subsequently stealing them in Campeche, San Luis Potosi, and the State of Mexico, among others. It is important to note that the risk of the same is higher in smaller municipalities across the country, rather than in large urban centers. As such, elections in Mexico City are anticipated to transpire relatively peacefully without major disruptions or incidents of violence.
While most of these tactics are not targeted toward voters, there nevertheless remains the potential for spillover violence impacting bystanders in the vicinity of polling stations. Regardless, reduced voter turnouts at 50-60 percent remain likely due to the threat of violence, given precedent.
In addition, significant disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of polling stations nationwide, including in Mexico City, due to the bolstered security measures and subsequent delays amid inspections and security checkpoints. Congestion can also be expected on alternate modes of transportation, including on public buses, metros, and taxis, particularly in urban centers.

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Mexico on June 2 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of polling stations due to the potential for intimidatory tactics and violence by organized crime groups.
Allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of polling stations throughout the day.

High

Mexico

Medium

Confirmed

Current Situation:

The general elections are slated to be held nationwide between 08:00-18:00 (local time) on June 2, with over 20,708 offices up for contestation, including the post for president. The main presidential candidates include frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Movimiento Regeneracion Nacional (MORENA) party, Xochitl Galvez of the opposition Fuerza y Corazon por Mexico coalition, and Jorge Alvarez Maynez of center-left Movimiento Ciudadano.
Over 170,858 polling stations will be installed across Mexico. More than 300,000 security elements from the federal, state, and municipal governments are slated to monitor the elections on June 2. Over 233,000 officials will lead surveillance activities nationwide.
In Mexico City, over 15,000 police officers, 1,160 vehicles, 50 motorcycle patrols, and aerial drones will be deployed to the 13,431 polling stations across the city starting from 05:00 on June 2. These personnel will conduct surveillance and perimeter security at voting stations.
In Mexico City, the sale of alcoholic beverages at wineries, grocery stores, and any other similar establishment will remain suspended from 00:01 on June 1 until 11:59 on June 2. Similarly, consumption outside establishments is also prohibited during the said timings. Other states which will have the dry law are Quintana Roo, State of Mexico, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, and Sinaloa among others as of writing. However, the timings will vary.
In addition, cyber patrols will monitor and prevent circulation of disinformation and fake news about the elections and the security situation at polling stations, which could impact voter turnouts.

Assessments & Forecast:

While political rallies, vehicle caravans, and campaigns have officially ended since May 28, small-scale demonstrations and gatherings in support of presidential candidates remain likely near electoral buildings. That said, the potential for large-scale protests denouncing or supporting a particular candidate remains unlikely, given the rarity of the same in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, the bolstered security deployment nationwide is likely in response to the significantly elevated threat of violence targeting candidates, electoral candidates, and polling officers. This is supported by the fact that over 60 attacks and at least 29 killed in political violence-related attacks have been recorded during the electoral period that started in June 2023 and the assassination of Alma Rosa Barragan, mayoral candidate for Moroleon, Guanajuato during June 6, 2021 local elections.
In addition, organized crime groups are anticipated to establish roadblocks near polling stations, steal and destroy voting materials including equipment and ballots, and leave human remains near polling stations as an intimidatory tactic. This is supported by similar incidents being recorded in 525 municipalities during the 2021 elections, including criminal groups opening fire at ballots and subsequently stealing them in Campeche, San Luis Potosi, and the State of Mexico, among others. It is important to note that the risk of the same is higher in smaller municipalities across the country, rather than in large urban centers. As such, elections in Mexico City are anticipated to transpire relatively peacefully without major disruptions or incidents of violence.
While most of these tactics are not targeted toward voters, there nevertheless remains the potential for spillover violence impacting bystanders in the vicinity of polling stations. Regardless, reduced voter turnouts at 50-60 percent remain likely due to the threat of violence, given precedent.
In addition, significant disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of polling stations nationwide, including in Mexico City, due to the bolstered security measures and subsequent delays amid inspections and security checkpoints. Congestion can also be expected on alternate modes of transportation, including on public buses, metros, and taxis, particularly in urban centers.

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Mexico on June 2 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of polling stations due to the potential for intimidatory tactics and violence by organized crime groups.
Allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of polling stations throughout the day.

High

Mexico

Medium

Confirmed

Mexico Tactical: General elections slated to be held nationwide between 08:00-18:00 (local time) on June 2; maintain heightened vigilance

Current Situation:

Assessments & Forecast:

Recommendations:

Current Situation:

Assessments & Forecast:

Recommendations:

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