• In an official video release, the opposition Optimistic Party for the Development of Mozambique’s (PODEMOS) presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane called for a fourth stage of the ongoing “fourth phase” of nationwide protests starting from December 3.
• As of writing, Mondlane has not specified the end date of the protests, exact locations, or timings. He urged his supporters to protest in “all neighborhoods” of all administrative centers, including Maputo, where he called on protesters to continue their “occupation” of the city. 
• Mondlane called on supporters to prepare for a continuation of protest activities into the festive season during late December in the instance that authorities failed to adhere to demands for “electoral truth.”
• Mondlane affirmed that the new stage of protest activities is to ensure institutions restore the “electoral truth” following the alleged fraudulent results of the October 9 general elections with ongoing demonstrations to continue until the “will of the people is restored.”

1. This new stage of protests comes amid a persisting post-electoral crisis following the October elections, marked by recurring nationwide protests led by Mondlane, associated security crackdowns, and unrest, most recently on November 27-29. Mondlane and his supporters have been organizing these protest activities in multiple phases and stages by holding demonstrations as well as blocking main roads, particularly in Maputo where activities were paralyzed as demonstrators parked cars in the middle of the roads to protest. These protests have continued with significant momentum, despite security crackdowns, with alleged police violence fueling public frustrations and attracting criticism. The persistent demonstrations underscore highly tense and volatile political conditions ahead of the Constitutional Council’s (CC) expected announcement of final results by December 22. The protests are also intended to mount further pressure on CC against upholding the election commission’s results which Mondlane perceives as manipulated by ruling Frelimo to ensure its victory. 
2. FORECAST: Given persisting tensions and precedent, the planned protests will likely record significant participation, potentially ranging in the low-to-mid thousands in major urban centers which are also opposition strongholds such as Maputo, Nampula, and Beira. While Mondlane did not specify exact locations, precedent suggests that demonstrators in Maputo are likely to gather near government buildings and prominent town squares, including the Public Assembly, Frelimo Headquarters, and Robert Mugabe Square. There is also a heightened potential for spontaneous protests to break out in other areas across Maputo, particularly along major highways, avenues, and streets where the participants are likely to park their vehicles to block the roads. This could result in significant disruptions to traffic movement as well as economic activities across Maputo.
3. FORECAST: Given precedent, the government will likely bolster security force deployments across protest hotspots nationwide, particularly in Maputo and provincial capitals. While Mondlane has urged his supporters to protest peacefully and there has been heightened international scrutiny over alleged violent security crackdowns, the volatile conditions suggest that the security forces are likely to intervene to prevent the protests from happening. The security forces are likely to use forcible dispersal measures, including tear gas and live ammunition. This could trigger clashes between protesters and security forces and devolve into unrest. While Mondlane has not mentioned the exact end of this slated phase of the protests yet, preceding similar protest actions suggest that it could last over two to three days. The political and security conditions in Maputo, other key urban centers, and protest hotspots nationwide are likely to remain volatile in the coming weeks ahead of the CC’s announcement. 

Those operating or residing in Mozambique, including in Maputo, on December 3 and over the coming days and weeks are advised to avoid nonessential travel in the vicinity of any political gatherings due to the demonstrations, heightened potential for unrest, and violent security crackdowns.