Protest

07
Apr 2026
6:29 UTC

Nepal Tactical: CPN-UML announces two-week nationwide protest program from April 8-25 over arrest of former PM Oli; avoid vicinity of rallies

Current Situation:

  • The opposition Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) has announced a two-week nationwide protest program starting from April 8 to 25.  
  • The demonstrations will be held against the government’s decision to arrest CPN‑UML Chairman and former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli over his alleged role in suppressing the Gen Z protests in September 2025. 
  • Accordingly, the details of the protest schedule are as follows: 

Date 

Protest-scale 

April 8 

District Level 

April 11 

Municipality Level 

April 16 

Ward Level 

April 20 

Provincial Level 
April 25 

Kathmandu 

  • The exact locations and timings of the demonstrations, including the rally in Kathmandu on April 25, remain unannounced at the time of writing.

Source: CPN-UML  

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. Attendance at the scheduled protests is likely to vary according to the location. The rally in Kathmandu on April 25 is likely to attract attendance in the low-to-mid hundreds, based on the traction observed during the nationwide protest on March 30, coupled with protest momentum spurred by the protest action between April 8-25. Attendance is likely to be bolstered further if like-minded parties and organizations, including the All-Nepal National Free Students Union (ANNFSU), the student wing of the CPN-UML, decide to join the two-week protest call. Turnout at rallies on April 8, 11, 16, and 20 is likely to reach in the high dozens to low hundreds, particularly at key urban centers and district capitals, considering CPN-UML’s grassroots presence.
  2. While the precise locations of the protests remain unannounced at the time of writing, potential sites include key government buildings and prominent public squares across the country. In Kathmandu, the potential locations are likely to include Maitighar Mandala, Babar Mahal, Bhrikuti Mandap, and the District Court, among other government buildings. Anticipating this, the authorities are likely to elevate security measures in the vicinity of the potential protest locations, as part of standard security protocols. These measures are likely to include the deployment of police personnel and the setting up of security barricades to control the crowd.
  3. A high risk of clashes between the protesters and the security personnel remains, particularly if the protesters are engaging in any form of disruptive activities such as blocking major thoroughfares, breaching established security cordons, or engaging in acts of vandalism and arson. In such scenarios, the authorities are likely to use forced crowd control measures, including baton charges and temporary detentions, as observed during a similar protest in Kathmandu on March 29. Further, inter-party clashes among rival parties remain probable given the political nature of the protests. In case of escalating unrest, the authorities are likely to use tear gas and water cannons. Significant disruptions to travel are anticipated in the vicinity of potential protest locations across the country between April 8-25.

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Nepal, including Kathmandu, between April 8-25 are advised to avoid the vicinity of the potential protest locations due to the slated protest and associated risk of clashes while allotting for disruptions.

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA Nepal
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Current Situation:

  • The opposition Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) has announced a two-week nationwide protest program starting from April 8 to 25.  
  • The demonstrations will be held against the government’s decision to arrest CPN‑UML Chairman and former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli over his alleged role in suppressing the Gen Z protests in September 2025. 
  • Accordingly, the details of the protest schedule are as follows: 

Date 

Protest-scale 

April 8 

District Level 

April 11 

Municipality Level 

April 16 

Ward Level 

April 20 

Provincial Level 
April 25 

Kathmandu 

  • The exact locations and timings of the demonstrations, including the rally in Kathmandu on April 25, remain unannounced at the time of writing.

Source: CPN-UML  

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. Attendance at the scheduled protests is likely to vary according to the location. The rally in Kathmandu on April 25 is likely to attract attendance in the low-to-mid hundreds, based on the traction observed during the nationwide protest on March 30, coupled with protest momentum spurred by the protest action between April 8-25. Attendance is likely to be bolstered further if like-minded parties and organizations, including the All-Nepal National Free Students Union (ANNFSU), the student wing of the CPN-UML, decide to join the two-week protest call. Turnout at rallies on April 8, 11, 16, and 20 is likely to reach in the high dozens to low hundreds, particularly at key urban centers and district capitals, considering CPN-UML’s grassroots presence.
  2. While the precise locations of the protests remain unannounced at the time of writing, potential sites include key government buildings and prominent public squares across the country. In Kathmandu, the potential locations are likely to include Maitighar Mandala, Babar Mahal, Bhrikuti Mandap, and the District Court, among other government buildings. Anticipating this, the authorities are likely to elevate security measures in the vicinity of the potential protest locations, as part of standard security protocols. These measures are likely to include the deployment of police personnel and the setting up of security barricades to control the crowd.
  3. A high risk of clashes between the protesters and the security personnel remains, particularly if the protesters are engaging in any form of disruptive activities such as blocking major thoroughfares, breaching established security cordons, or engaging in acts of vandalism and arson. In such scenarios, the authorities are likely to use forced crowd control measures, including baton charges and temporary detentions, as observed during a similar protest in Kathmandu on March 29. Further, inter-party clashes among rival parties remain probable given the political nature of the protests. In case of escalating unrest, the authorities are likely to use tear gas and water cannons. Significant disruptions to travel are anticipated in the vicinity of potential protest locations across the country between April 8-25.

Recommendations:

Those operating or residing in Nepal, including Kathmandu, between April 8-25 are advised to avoid the vicinity of the potential protest locations due to the slated protest and associated risk of clashes while allotting for disruptions.

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA Nepal
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL High
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed