• Reports from May 10 citing the Lagos State Police Commissioner Hakeem Odumosu indicate that security forces are investigating alleged planned attacks in Lagos State by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), the Oodua Republic, and 24 other Yoruba separatist groups. The separatist groups allegedly planned to attack soft targets across the state. 
• Odumosu reportedly claimed strategies were in place to neutralize the threat while calling on civilians to report suspicious activity. 
• Separate sources from May 10 indicate that IPOB denied the allegations, accusing Odumoso of attempting to create tensions between the Igbo and Yoruba communities.

1. This development comes amid heightened tensions between separatist groups and the government following the authorities’ claims of increased IPOB attacks in southeastern states, namely Imo, Anambra, Abia, and Akwa Ibom. The lack of details regarding the alleged threat suggests that the Police Commissioner’s warning is reflective of the authorities’ heightened threat perception rather than actionable intelligence about an upcoming attack. This is underscored by the fact that IPOB’s suspected attacks remain restricted to the southeastern states and are mainly targeted against security forces and facilities, rather than civilians. Under these circumstances, this latest security investigation does not represent an imminent threat posed to Lagos State.
2. FORECAST: That said, such allegations will exacerbate existing tensions between separatist movements and the government. Additionally, the allegations are liable to be used by the Lagos State authorities to justify heightened security measures against perceived sympathizers of these separatist movements. Going forward, any such security investigations and measures are likely to overwhelmingly target Igbo and Yoruba civilians, leading to potentially increased tensions between the government and the Igbo and Yoruba communities across Lagos State.

Travel to Abuja, Lagos, and Port Harcourt can continue while exercising increased vigilance and adhering to stringent security precautions regarding criminal and security threats.