Poland Tactical: Far-right anti-migrant protest slated outside Ministry of National Defense in Warsaw on June 12; maintain heightened vigilance

Jun 2024

17:44 UTC

Reports indicate that the far-right Marsz Niepodleglosci will hold a protest outside the Ministry of National Defense building, located on Independence Street 218, in Warsaw at 18:00 (local time) on June 12.
The protest has been organized to protest against illegal migration and to commemorate Polish soldiers stationed at the Polish-Belarusian border.
The protest was announced after a Polish soldier died from his injuries on June 6 after being stabbed by a migrant trying to cross the border on May 31.

Based on precedent and the group’s mobilizational capabilities, the protest is liable to attract a turnout ranging from the high dozens to low hundreds.
Considering the nature of the organizer, coupled with heightened tensions, the protest carries a latent potential for unrest in the form of localized clashes between protesters and police. Moreover, there is a risk of counter-protests by human rights groups, as well as left-wing groups, increasing the risk for clashes.
As such, given the protest issue and the location, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed near the Ministry of National Defense as a security precaution and to monitor proceedings. In the event of unrest, authorities will be forced to intervene using forcible crowd control measures, including conducting arrests
Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are expected in the vicinity of the demonstration location due to the slated protest from early evening hours.

Those operating or residing in Warsaw on June 12 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the Ministry of Defense due to the potential for unrest at the slated protest.
Allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of slated protest.

Low

Warsaw, Poland

Medium

Credible

Reports indicate that the far-right Marsz Niepodleglosci will hold a protest outside the Ministry of National Defense building, located on Independence Street 218, in Warsaw at 18:00 (local time) on June 12.
The protest has been organized to protest against illegal migration and to commemorate Polish soldiers stationed at the Polish-Belarusian border.
The protest was announced after a Polish soldier died from his injuries on June 6 after being stabbed by a migrant trying to cross the border on May 31.

Based on precedent and the group’s mobilizational capabilities, the protest is liable to attract a turnout ranging from the high dozens to low hundreds.
Considering the nature of the organizer, coupled with heightened tensions, the protest carries a latent potential for unrest in the form of localized clashes between protesters and police. Moreover, there is a risk of counter-protests by human rights groups, as well as left-wing groups, increasing the risk for clashes.
As such, given the protest issue and the location, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed near the Ministry of National Defense as a security precaution and to monitor proceedings. In the event of unrest, authorities will be forced to intervene using forcible crowd control measures, including conducting arrests
Disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic are expected in the vicinity of the demonstration location due to the slated protest from early evening hours.

Those operating or residing in Warsaw on June 12 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of the Ministry of Defense due to the potential for unrest at the slated protest.
Allot for travel disruptions in the vicinity of slated protest.

Low

Warsaw, Poland

Medium

Credible

Protest