Protest

10
Mar 2025
14:31 UTC

Poland Tactical: Pro-immigrant protest slated to be held in front of Sejm in Warsaw from 10:30 (local time) on March 12; maintain heightened vigilance

Current Situation

  • On March 12, activists associated with Obywatele RP, Ogolnopolski Strajk Kobiet and Akcja Demokracja will stage a protest in front of the Sejm from 10:30 (local time).
  • The protest has been organized against a bill that would allow authorities to arbitrarily deny the right to apply for international protection in Poland, with concerns over discrimination, human rights violations, and political support for the legislation.

Source: Facebook 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on the mobilizational capabilities of the groups and social media estimates, the protest is expected to attract a turnout ranging from the high dozens to the low hundreds.
  2. Although previous protests have transpired largely peacefully, given heightened sentiments over the protest issue, the slated demonstration carries a latent potential for localized clashes between protesters and the police.
  3. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed near the Sejm as a precautionary measure. In case of escalating unrest, authorities are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal measures, including conducting arrests.
  4. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated near the Sejm from the morning hours onwards.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Warsaw on March 12 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Sejm due to the latent potential for unrest at the slated protest.
  2. Allot for travel-related disruptions during the morning hours.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Warsaw, Poland
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Current Situation

  • On March 12, activists associated with Obywatele RP, Ogolnopolski Strajk Kobiet and Akcja Demokracja will stage a protest in front of the Sejm from 10:30 (local time).
  • The protest has been organized against a bill that would allow authorities to arbitrarily deny the right to apply for international protection in Poland, with concerns over discrimination, human rights violations, and political support for the legislation.

Source: Facebook 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. Based on the mobilizational capabilities of the groups and social media estimates, the protest is expected to attract a turnout ranging from the high dozens to the low hundreds.
  2. Although previous protests have transpired largely peacefully, given heightened sentiments over the protest issue, the slated demonstration carries a latent potential for localized clashes between protesters and the police.
  3. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed near the Sejm as a precautionary measure. In case of escalating unrest, authorities are liable to use forcible crowd dispersal measures, including conducting arrests.
  4. Localized disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular movement are anticipated near the Sejm from the morning hours onwards.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Warsaw on March 12 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Sejm due to the latent potential for unrest at the slated protest.
  2. Allot for travel-related disruptions during the morning hours.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Warsaw, Poland
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible