Health

20
Dec 2024
10:51 UTC

Rwanda Alert (UPDATE): Government, WHO declare end of Marburg virus outbreak on December 20

Current Situation

  • According to official statements from December 20, the Rwandan Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of Rwanda’s first-ever Marburg virus outbreak. The Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reportedly backed up the declaration.
  • The end of the outbreak was declared as the criteria of 42 days, or two incubation periods, as per WHO guidelines, have passed without any new cases detected after the last affected patient was discharged on November 8, and the last new positive case was reported on October 30. 
  • A total of 66 confirmed cases, with 15 deaths and 51 patients recovered from the Marburg virus, have been recorded in the country since the declaration of the outbreak on September 27.
  • The health authorities stated that the end of the outbreak is evidence of the country’s swift and coordinated response, and underscores Rwanda’s commitment to building resilient health systems and showcases preparedness against health emergencies. 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The declaration of the end of the Marburg virus outbreak is encouraging. The last confirmed case was also detected a little over a month after the outbreak was announced, demonstrating the effectiveness of the health authorities’ relatively swift action and ability to contain the spread of the virus. That said, the outbreak in Rwanda was reportedly the third largest globally, indicating that the virus spread rapidly and the authorities may have faltered on early detection and containment measures to some extent. Additionally, the government has maintained opaqueness around the details of the outbreak, including its geographical extent and epicenters in the country. Despite this, the fatality rate during the outbreak remained low, with the recovery of most of the infected patients also evidencing the robustness of Rwanda’s healthcare infrastructure. 
  2. The curtailing of Marburg’s spread was likely aided by cooperation with the Africa CDC, WHO, and other partners. In that, coordinated measures like disease surveillance, testing, infection prevention and control, contact tracing, clinical care, and public awareness likely played a vital role. FORECAST: Although the outbreak has ended, there remains a latent potential for a new outbreak, especially in the case of any failures in the contact tracing mechanism. Regardless, health officials and international partners will likely remain on high alert and if a new outbreak emerges, they are expected to swiftly respond with outbreak control strategies. The government will also likely maintain a holistic care program for those who have recovered from the virus.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Rwanda over the coming weeks are advised to maintain heightened vigilance given the recent end of the Marburg outbreak.
  2. It is advisable to monitor one’s own health for the extent of the incubation period and contact medical personnel immediately if the symptoms of a possible infection, including high fever, severe headaches, and malaise are observed.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Nationwide, Rwanda
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Current Situation

  • According to official statements from December 20, the Rwandan Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of Rwanda’s first-ever Marburg virus outbreak. The Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reportedly backed up the declaration.
  • The end of the outbreak was declared as the criteria of 42 days, or two incubation periods, as per WHO guidelines, have passed without any new cases detected after the last affected patient was discharged on November 8, and the last new positive case was reported on October 30. 
  • A total of 66 confirmed cases, with 15 deaths and 51 patients recovered from the Marburg virus, have been recorded in the country since the declaration of the outbreak on September 27.
  • The health authorities stated that the end of the outbreak is evidence of the country’s swift and coordinated response, and underscores Rwanda’s commitment to building resilient health systems and showcases preparedness against health emergencies. 

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The declaration of the end of the Marburg virus outbreak is encouraging. The last confirmed case was also detected a little over a month after the outbreak was announced, demonstrating the effectiveness of the health authorities’ relatively swift action and ability to contain the spread of the virus. That said, the outbreak in Rwanda was reportedly the third largest globally, indicating that the virus spread rapidly and the authorities may have faltered on early detection and containment measures to some extent. Additionally, the government has maintained opaqueness around the details of the outbreak, including its geographical extent and epicenters in the country. Despite this, the fatality rate during the outbreak remained low, with the recovery of most of the infected patients also evidencing the robustness of Rwanda’s healthcare infrastructure. 
  2. The curtailing of Marburg’s spread was likely aided by cooperation with the Africa CDC, WHO, and other partners. In that, coordinated measures like disease surveillance, testing, infection prevention and control, contact tracing, clinical care, and public awareness likely played a vital role. FORECAST: Although the outbreak has ended, there remains a latent potential for a new outbreak, especially in the case of any failures in the contact tracing mechanism. Regardless, health officials and international partners will likely remain on high alert and if a new outbreak emerges, they are expected to swiftly respond with outbreak control strategies. The government will also likely maintain a holistic care program for those who have recovered from the virus.

Recommendations

  1. Those operating or residing in Rwanda over the coming weeks are advised to maintain heightened vigilance given the recent end of the Marburg outbreak.
  2. It is advisable to monitor one’s own health for the extent of the incubation period and contact medical personnel immediately if the symptoms of a possible infection, including high fever, severe headaches, and malaise are observed.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Low
AFFECTED AREA Nationwide, Rwanda
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed