Armed Conflict

15
Feb 2021
18:40 UTC

Saudi Arabia & Yemen Alert: Houthis claim UAV attack against King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah on February 15; highly notable if confirmed

Please be advised:

  • During the afternoon hours of February 15, the Houthi military spokesperson, Brigadier General Yahya Saree, stated that the Shiite group conducted two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) attacks targeting the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah and the Abha International Airport in Asir Province during the morning hours of February 15. 
  • The spokesperson stated that the attack was conducted using two “Samad-3” and “Qasef-2K” explosive-laden UAVs and that the attack disrupted operations at the airports for two hours. 
  • He further stated that the attack is a “legitimate response” to the “escalation of military aggression” and the continued “siege” on the civilian population by the Saudi-led Coalition in Yemen.
  • At the time of writing, the Houthi-claimed attacks and the alleged disruptions at either of the airports have not been confirmed by Saudi authorities or corroborated by other independent sources. However, on February 15, the Saudi-led Coalition spokesperson announced the destruction of a Houthi-launched UAV towards Saudi Arabia against “civilian targets”, without specifying the exact target of the attack or where the UAV was intercepted. 
  • Currently, flight operations at King Abdulaziz International Airport and Abha International Airport are proceeding as scheduled. 

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The latest UAV attacks come amid a concentrated effort by the Yemen-based Shiite group to launch aerial attacks against sensitive infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, which has particularly intensified in recent days. This is evidenced by the fact that a total of nine instances involving the launch of Houthi-perpetrated UAVs and ballistic missiles towards Saudi Arabia has been witnessed between February 10-15. Most recently, on February 14, the Saudi-led Coalition spokesperson announced that Coalition forces destroyed two explosive-laden UAVs launched towards the Abha International Airport. Meanwhile, on February 10, a Houthi-launched UAV attack damaged a civilian aircraft at the same airport in Asir. 
  2. In this context, should the Houthi-claimed explosive-laden UAV attack targeting the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah be confirmed, it would be highly notable due to the following reasons. Firstly, while Houthi-perpetrated attacks targeting infrastructure in Jeddah are not unprecedented, as evidenced by the November 23, 2020, Houthi-perpetrated missile attack targeting an oil distribution station in Jeddah, such claims are overall rare. Secondly, the attack would reiterate the Houthis’ continued sophisticated aerial capabilities. This is given that the King Abdulaziz International Airport is located approximately 630 km from the nearest Houthi-held territory in northern Yemen. Therefore, if confirmed, the attack would signal the Shiite group’s continued efforts and capabilities to take advantage of the existing gaps in Saudi’s security protocols. This is given that UAVs usually fly at a lower altitude and can therefore travel longer distances without being detected by air defense system radars. 
  3. Although Saudi authorities have not confirmed the Houthi-claimed UAV attacks, it is possible that the UAVs were launched towards the airports, but were intercepted by the Royal Saudi Air Defense (RSAD) before hitting their intended targets. However, the materialization of an attack targeting the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, while overall less likely, can not be entirely excluded. In this context, the lack of Saudi confirmation may be attributed to the Kingdom’s known strategy of delaying the confirmation of successful Houthi-perpetrated attacks targeting sensitive infrastructure, particularly in key Saudi cities. This is because doing so would undermine the Kingdom’s image by projecting its inability to secure its territory, while simultaneously boosting the morale and the profile of the Shiite group, which Saudi Arabia considers as a “terrorist” organization.
  4. However, that said, the Houthis are also known to claim attacks against sensitive and notable targets as well as exaggerate the scope of such incidents to project its heightened capabilities and attract media attention. By claiming an attack against the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, which is one of the Kingdom’s main and busiest airports in the country as it constitutes the main entry point for pilgrims to the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina, the Houthis likely seek to threaten civilian and commercial activities and portray the city as unsafe. Such a threat would serve to discourage foreign investments as well as hinder tourists and religious pilgrims from traveling to the Kingdom, which would have a negative effect on Saudi Arabia’s economy, especially amid already diminished government revenues due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global oil prices. 
  5. FORECAST: Due to the currently heightened threat posed by persistent Houthi-perpetrated attacks on civilian and sensitive infrastructure, particularly airports, Saudi authorities will seek to bolster the Kingdom’s aerial defense protocols to mitigate the threat from such attacks. Nonetheless, the latest attack, if confirmed, will likely embolden the Shiite group to launch additional explosive-laden UAVs and ballistic missiles at strategic and civilian targets in Saudi Arabia over the coming weeks. While Houthi-perpetrated attacks targeting key cities, such as Jeddah and Riyadh, may occur infrequently, a majority of these are liable to be recorded in the Kingdom’s southern provinces that border Yemen, namely, Asir, Najran, and Jazan, where the threat is more acute. Overall, the risk posed to strategic and civilian infrastructure by such Houthi-perpetrated attacks in Saudi Arabia will continue to remain high over the coming weeks and months. 

Recommendations

Saudi Arabia

  1. Travel to Riyadh, Dammam, and Jeddah can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions and adherence to cultural norms. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans.
  2. Maintain heightened vigilance in central areas in major cities, including popular public areas and shopping centers, as well as Western institutions and places frequented by Westerners.
  3. It is further advised to avoid all travel to the border areas with Yemen, specifically Asir, Najran, and Jazan provinces due to the potential for collateral damage emanating from the near-daily Houthi-perpetrated cross-border hostilities in the region. 

Yemen

  1. Avoid all travel to Sanaa and Aden, while contacting us at [email protected] or+44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans. In the event of airstrikes, it is advised to take cover in a designated shelter, or if one does not exist, in a room with as few external walls, windows, and openings as possible, close all openings, sit on the floor below the window line and near an internal wall.
  2. We advise against all travel to outlying areas and overland travel, due to the limited government and security presence, ongoing clashes and airstrikes, as well as the heightened threat of attacks and kidnappings.
  3. For those operating in or conducting business with oil facilities, it is advised to consult with us for itinerary and contingency support plans.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA King Abdulaziz International Airport, Jeddah Province, Abha International Airport, Asir Province; Saudi Arabia
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Please be advised:

  • During the afternoon hours of February 15, the Houthi military spokesperson, Brigadier General Yahya Saree, stated that the Shiite group conducted two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) attacks targeting the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah and the Abha International Airport in Asir Province during the morning hours of February 15. 
  • The spokesperson stated that the attack was conducted using two “Samad-3” and “Qasef-2K” explosive-laden UAVs and that the attack disrupted operations at the airports for two hours. 
  • He further stated that the attack is a “legitimate response” to the “escalation of military aggression” and the continued “siege” on the civilian population by the Saudi-led Coalition in Yemen.
  • At the time of writing, the Houthi-claimed attacks and the alleged disruptions at either of the airports have not been confirmed by Saudi authorities or corroborated by other independent sources. However, on February 15, the Saudi-led Coalition spokesperson announced the destruction of a Houthi-launched UAV towards Saudi Arabia against “civilian targets”, without specifying the exact target of the attack or where the UAV was intercepted. 
  • Currently, flight operations at King Abdulaziz International Airport and Abha International Airport are proceeding as scheduled. 

Assessments & Forecast:

  1. The latest UAV attacks come amid a concentrated effort by the Yemen-based Shiite group to launch aerial attacks against sensitive infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, which has particularly intensified in recent days. This is evidenced by the fact that a total of nine instances involving the launch of Houthi-perpetrated UAVs and ballistic missiles towards Saudi Arabia has been witnessed between February 10-15. Most recently, on February 14, the Saudi-led Coalition spokesperson announced that Coalition forces destroyed two explosive-laden UAVs launched towards the Abha International Airport. Meanwhile, on February 10, a Houthi-launched UAV attack damaged a civilian aircraft at the same airport in Asir. 
  2. In this context, should the Houthi-claimed explosive-laden UAV attack targeting the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah be confirmed, it would be highly notable due to the following reasons. Firstly, while Houthi-perpetrated attacks targeting infrastructure in Jeddah are not unprecedented, as evidenced by the November 23, 2020, Houthi-perpetrated missile attack targeting an oil distribution station in Jeddah, such claims are overall rare. Secondly, the attack would reiterate the Houthis’ continued sophisticated aerial capabilities. This is given that the King Abdulaziz International Airport is located approximately 630 km from the nearest Houthi-held territory in northern Yemen. Therefore, if confirmed, the attack would signal the Shiite group’s continued efforts and capabilities to take advantage of the existing gaps in Saudi’s security protocols. This is given that UAVs usually fly at a lower altitude and can therefore travel longer distances without being detected by air defense system radars. 
  3. Although Saudi authorities have not confirmed the Houthi-claimed UAV attacks, it is possible that the UAVs were launched towards the airports, but were intercepted by the Royal Saudi Air Defense (RSAD) before hitting their intended targets. However, the materialization of an attack targeting the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, while overall less likely, can not be entirely excluded. In this context, the lack of Saudi confirmation may be attributed to the Kingdom’s known strategy of delaying the confirmation of successful Houthi-perpetrated attacks targeting sensitive infrastructure, particularly in key Saudi cities. This is because doing so would undermine the Kingdom’s image by projecting its inability to secure its territory, while simultaneously boosting the morale and the profile of the Shiite group, which Saudi Arabia considers as a “terrorist” organization.
  4. However, that said, the Houthis are also known to claim attacks against sensitive and notable targets as well as exaggerate the scope of such incidents to project its heightened capabilities and attract media attention. By claiming an attack against the King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah, which is one of the Kingdom’s main and busiest airports in the country as it constitutes the main entry point for pilgrims to the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina, the Houthis likely seek to threaten civilian and commercial activities and portray the city as unsafe. Such a threat would serve to discourage foreign investments as well as hinder tourists and religious pilgrims from traveling to the Kingdom, which would have a negative effect on Saudi Arabia’s economy, especially amid already diminished government revenues due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global oil prices. 
  5. FORECAST: Due to the currently heightened threat posed by persistent Houthi-perpetrated attacks on civilian and sensitive infrastructure, particularly airports, Saudi authorities will seek to bolster the Kingdom’s aerial defense protocols to mitigate the threat from such attacks. Nonetheless, the latest attack, if confirmed, will likely embolden the Shiite group to launch additional explosive-laden UAVs and ballistic missiles at strategic and civilian targets in Saudi Arabia over the coming weeks. While Houthi-perpetrated attacks targeting key cities, such as Jeddah and Riyadh, may occur infrequently, a majority of these are liable to be recorded in the Kingdom’s southern provinces that border Yemen, namely, Asir, Najran, and Jazan, where the threat is more acute. Overall, the risk posed to strategic and civilian infrastructure by such Houthi-perpetrated attacks in Saudi Arabia will continue to remain high over the coming weeks and months. 

Recommendations

Saudi Arabia

  1. Travel to Riyadh, Dammam, and Jeddah can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions and adherence to cultural norms. Contact us at [email protected] or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans.
  2. Maintain heightened vigilance in central areas in major cities, including popular public areas and shopping centers, as well as Western institutions and places frequented by Westerners.
  3. It is further advised to avoid all travel to the border areas with Yemen, specifically Asir, Najran, and Jazan provinces due to the potential for collateral damage emanating from the near-daily Houthi-perpetrated cross-border hostilities in the region. 

Yemen

  1. Avoid all travel to Sanaa and Aden, while contacting us at [email protected] or+44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans. In the event of airstrikes, it is advised to take cover in a designated shelter, or if one does not exist, in a room with as few external walls, windows, and openings as possible, close all openings, sit on the floor below the window line and near an internal wall.
  2. We advise against all travel to outlying areas and overland travel, due to the limited government and security presence, ongoing clashes and airstrikes, as well as the heightened threat of attacks and kidnappings.
  3. For those operating in or conducting business with oil facilities, it is advised to consult with us for itinerary and contingency support plans.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Medium
AFFECTED AREA King Abdulaziz International Airport, Jeddah Province, Abha International Airport, Asir Province; Saudi Arabia
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed