• According to a statement issued by the US Embassy in South Africa, the South African Communist Party (SACP) has called for a demonstration in front of the US Consulate in Sandton, a northern suburb of Johannesburg, on February 15. The protest, which has received a permit from the City of Johannesburg for up to 550 participants, is slated to start at 10:00 (local time) and end at 14:00.
• Furthermore, a social media statement endorsed by the SACP has called for an additional protest on the same day in front of the US consulate in Cape Town, located in the suburb of Westlake. The protest is slated to start at 10:00 and end at 12:00.
• Both protests have been organized by the SACP to denounce US policy with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Similar demonstrations in South Africa regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict usually see relatively low turnouts and transpire peacefully, as these protests are locally not considered controversial. Nonetheless, given that the February 15 protests are organized by the SACP, a major political party with a substantial support base and significant resources, we assess that these protests will draw high turnouts in the mid-hundreds in each location. Furthermore, given that these protests are to take place in front of US consulates, there is likely to be a large security deployment outside each consulate and in the immediate vicinity of both protests. FORECAST: Accordingly, while the protests will likely transpire peacefully, given their expected size, the heavy deployment of security forces, and the proximity to the US consulate, there remains an underlying potential for isolated scuffles between security forces and protesters.

Those operating or residing in Sandton CBD and in the Westlake area of Cape Town during the morning hours of February 15 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot extra time to travel in the vicinity of the US consulates due to the underlying potential for localized unrest and traffic disruptions.