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• Reports indicate that three Tanzanian police officers and a security guard have been killed, after an individual armed with two assault rifles engaged in a shootout near the French Embassy, located on Ali Hassan Mwinyi road in Dar es Salaam on August 25. 
• Following this security forces responded, resulting in the attacker being reportedly killed by a sniper. The attacker’s indiscriminate shooting also led to six civilians being wounded. 
• At the time of writing, the police are still attempting to establish the identity and motives of the attacker, with an investigation being launched into the incident. 
• The Chief of Police Operations Liberatus Sabas told reporters that the shooting is unconnected with militancy. Sabas called on citizens to remain calm, to allow security forces to conduct a thorough investigation, and to cooperate with the authorities if they have any information regarding the identity or motives of the attacker. 
• President Samia Suluhu Hassan, in a statement posted on social media, expressed her condolences to the families of the fallen police officers. The president said that she had ordered an investigation into the shooting.

1. While the possible motive and identity of the attacker remain unclear, the incident is highly notable given that such shootings are extremely rare in Dar es Salaam, and in Tanzania in general. In this context, while there remains a paucity of information regarding the incident, video of the attacker seems to suggest that the individual was possibly psychologically unstable. This scenario is further bolstered by the fact the assailant seemed to shoot relatively indiscriminately, while allegedly yelling incoherently at security forces. The indiscriminate nature of the attack, and the attacker ignoring important government buildings and the French Embassy further undermine the possibility of the attacker being linked to any militant group. That said, while the possibility of a mentally unstable person being inspired by jihadist ideology cannot entirely be ruled out, the low-intensity nature of the attack likely precludes the incident being planned by any prominent militant group.
2. Furthermore, that the attacker was equipped with two assault rifles is notable, but also likely points to the high levels of illegal weapons proliferation within Africa. This proliferation is likely to be heightened in Dar es Salaam, given its status as a major port city, and general trading hub. FORECAST: Given that the incident occurred on an important avenue, where multiple embassies, government buildings and financial institutions are located, the security forces are likely to launch a comprehensive investigation into any intelligence failures. It is likely that at least, in the immediate term, security around western embassies will be increased. Additionally, the police will issue statements assuring foreign citizens and businesses, that the security situation in Dar es Salaam remains robust, and that this was an isolated incident. More broadly, while the linkages to militancy will remain tenuous, security forces are still likely to establish, and then probe into the attacker’s identity to seek out any connections to jihadist groups or entities.

1. Travel to Dar es Salaam, Dodoma, and Arusha can continue while adhering to general security precautions regarding the risk of crime.
2. Avoid all large gatherings and protests in Tanzania as a general security precaution due to the potential for unrest and a violent security response.
3. Avoid openly espousing political views or demonstrating an affiliation to local parties, either in person or online, due to high political tensions and a restrictive political climate.