UAE Alert: Houthi Spokesperson issues implicit threat warning of attacks against Dubai Expo on January 25; psychological effort to harm Emirati economy, attacks remain possible

Jan 2022

16:57 UTC

Please be advised:

During the evening hours (local time) on January 25, the Yemen-based Houthi Spokesperson Yahya Sare’e released a statement on social media with an implicit threat against the Expo 2020 that is currently taking place in Dubai.
Sare’e stated “#Expo…we advised changing the destination”.
Expo 2020 is an international exhibition that commenced at the Dubai Exhibition Center on October 1, 2021, and is set to continue until March 31, 2022, with the participation of 192 countries and millions of international visitors.

Assessments & Forecast:

The implicit threat by the Houthi Spokesperson follows several similar rhetorical measures that Sare’e has employed in the past week particularly encouraging foreign companies to leave the UAE. This is part of the Iran-backed Shiite group’s Operation “Yemen Tornado 2”, which has included a series of missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks against the UAE and southern Saudi Arabia. The particular reference to the Expo 2020 in Dubai, albeit not an explicit threat, is likely primarily a psychological tool to stoke fear and panic among current and prospective visitors to the international exhibition. This is because Dubai’s hosting of the global event is a major part of its efforts to open itself up to the world and attract international investment and tourism. The Houthis are thus trying to discourage engagement in the exhibition, particularly as they recently proved that they pose a credible security threat to Abu Dhabi and potentially Dubai through a confirmed successful missile/UAV attack on January 17 and an intercepted missile attack on January 24.
However, as proven by their decision to follow through on their previous threats by executing attacks, the Houthis remain undeterred by both widespread international censure and persistent Saudi-led Coalition airstrikes against their positions in Yemen, including those targeting missile batteries from where recent attacks were launched, per the Emirati Ministry of Defense. The Houthi stockpile of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles is also likely far from depleted amid years of weapons deliveries from Iran and indications that they have been able to modify and produce their own sophisticated weaponry based on Iranian technology.
FORECAST: Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the Houthis will attempt to target the UAE again over the coming days, especially due to continued territorial gains by the UAE-backed Giants Brigade in Yemen. This would underscore the Iran-backed group’s willingness to actualize threats against the Emiratis and attempt to force them into halting their support for the Shiite group’s adversaries in Yemen. Although it is likely that Emirati and US air defense systems will intercept and destroy most incoming aerial attacks, particularly given the currently heightened vigilance throughout the UAE, it cannot be ruled out that such attacks will succeed. This is particularly the case with the Houthis’ use of UAVs that have proven challenging for conventional air defense systems. Likely targets include areas where military bases, airports, oil facilities, and other sensitive infrastructure are based, as well as potentially the pavilions of perceived hostile countries at the Expo 2020 in Dubai.

Recommendations:

Those operating in the UAE over the coming days and weeks are advised to ensure that all personnel are cognizant of emergency procedures in the event of an aerial attack.
This is particularly for organizations located near strategic infrastructure, such as airports, military bases, and oil facilities, as these are likely to serve as targets for Houthi attacks.
Depending upon the site, emergency procedures may include identifying warning sirens of incoming attacks and appropriate places of shelter (preferably underground), ensuring that internal tracking and communication systems are in place, and preparing contingency plans.
In the event that an explosion is heard, immediately seek cover. Remain cognizant that even if an incoming missile or drone is intercepted, falling shrapnel/debris constitutes a significant risk.
UAVs may fly in swarms, which allows multiple drones to attack a target simultaneously or in the minutes after the initial explosion. It is therefore advised to continue to take cover in a designated shelter, or if one does not exist, in a room with as few external walls, windows, and openings as possible. Close all openings, sit on the floor below the window line and near an internal wall, which will partially protect against incoming shrapnel.
Wait at least ten minutes and communicate with a supervisor before moving from the indoor site.
If outdoors, lie on the ground and cover your head. Do not gather in areas where missiles/UAVs may have fallen as fires or secondary explosions are possible.
If you see unexploded ordnance on the ground, keep your distance and notify the authorities.
Remain abreast of regional security developments to assess the likelihood of potential attacks.

Medium

UAE, Yemen

Medium

Confirmed

Please be advised:

During the evening hours (local time) on January 25, the Yemen-based Houthi Spokesperson Yahya Sare’e released a statement on social media with an implicit threat against the Expo 2020 that is currently taking place in Dubai.
Sare’e stated “#Expo…we advised changing the destination”.
Expo 2020 is an international exhibition that commenced at the Dubai Exhibition Center on October 1, 2021, and is set to continue until March 31, 2022, with the participation of 192 countries and millions of international visitors.

Assessments & Forecast:

The implicit threat by the Houthi Spokesperson follows several similar rhetorical measures that Sare’e has employed in the past week particularly encouraging foreign companies to leave the UAE. This is part of the Iran-backed Shiite group’s Operation “Yemen Tornado 2”, which has included a series of missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks against the UAE and southern Saudi Arabia. The particular reference to the Expo 2020 in Dubai, albeit not an explicit threat, is likely primarily a psychological tool to stoke fear and panic among current and prospective visitors to the international exhibition. This is because Dubai’s hosting of the global event is a major part of its efforts to open itself up to the world and attract international investment and tourism. The Houthis are thus trying to discourage engagement in the exhibition, particularly as they recently proved that they pose a credible security threat to Abu Dhabi and potentially Dubai through a confirmed successful missile/UAV attack on January 17 and an intercepted missile attack on January 24.
However, as proven by their decision to follow through on their previous threats by executing attacks, the Houthis remain undeterred by both widespread international censure and persistent Saudi-led Coalition airstrikes against their positions in Yemen, including those targeting missile batteries from where recent attacks were launched, per the Emirati Ministry of Defense. The Houthi stockpile of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles is also likely far from depleted amid years of weapons deliveries from Iran and indications that they have been able to modify and produce their own sophisticated weaponry based on Iranian technology.
FORECAST: Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the Houthis will attempt to target the UAE again over the coming days, especially due to continued territorial gains by the UAE-backed Giants Brigade in Yemen. This would underscore the Iran-backed group’s willingness to actualize threats against the Emiratis and attempt to force them into halting their support for the Shiite group’s adversaries in Yemen. Although it is likely that Emirati and US air defense systems will intercept and destroy most incoming aerial attacks, particularly given the currently heightened vigilance throughout the UAE, it cannot be ruled out that such attacks will succeed. This is particularly the case with the Houthis’ use of UAVs that have proven challenging for conventional air defense systems. Likely targets include areas where military bases, airports, oil facilities, and other sensitive infrastructure are based, as well as potentially the pavilions of perceived hostile countries at the Expo 2020 in Dubai.

Recommendations:

Those operating in the UAE over the coming days and weeks are advised to ensure that all personnel are cognizant of emergency procedures in the event of an aerial attack.
This is particularly for organizations located near strategic infrastructure, such as airports, military bases, and oil facilities, as these are likely to serve as targets for Houthi attacks.
Depending upon the site, emergency procedures may include identifying warning sirens of incoming attacks and appropriate places of shelter (preferably underground), ensuring that internal tracking and communication systems are in place, and preparing contingency plans.
In the event that an explosion is heard, immediately seek cover. Remain cognizant that even if an incoming missile or drone is intercepted, falling shrapnel/debris constitutes a significant risk.
UAVs may fly in swarms, which allows multiple drones to attack a target simultaneously or in the minutes after the initial explosion. It is therefore advised to continue to take cover in a designated shelter, or if one does not exist, in a room with as few external walls, windows, and openings as possible. Close all openings, sit on the floor below the window line and near an internal wall, which will partially protect against incoming shrapnel.
Wait at least ten minutes and communicate with a supervisor before moving from the indoor site.
If outdoors, lie on the ground and cover your head. Do not gather in areas where missiles/UAVs may have fallen as fires or secondary explosions are possible.
If you see unexploded ordnance on the ground, keep your distance and notify the authorities.
Remain abreast of regional security developments to assess the likelihood of potential attacks.