Click here to read previous report 

• The Counter-Terrorism Command of the Metropolitan Police (Met Police) has declared the stabbing of MP David Amess a “terrorist incident” and is suspecting potential links to Islamist extremism. Amess was stabbed several times in a church in Leigh-on-Sea, Essex, where he had been holding appointments with his constituents on October 15.  
• The suspect, identified as a 25-year-old British citizen with Somalian heritage, was previously referred to the Prevent program, which identifies people at risk of radicalization. The police believe that the suspect acted alone. However, searches are currently ongoing at two addresses in the London area.  
• Following the incident, Home Secretary Priti Patel ordered all police forces to immediately review security arrangements for MPs. 

1. The incident is notable given that UK politicians are rarely targeted in such violent incidents, with the last such attack having transpired in a 2016 shooting of Labour MP Jo Cox by a far-right extremist. Amess may have been targeted as he is considered to be one of the more outspoken right-wing and socially conservative MPs, having supported stricter immigration and asylum regulations throughout his career.
2. While stabbings are the most common form of attacks by lone-wolf militants in the UK, as well as other parts of Europe due to the ease of access, targeted incidents by Islamists are rare, given that they primarily intend to cause mass fatalities in most cases. FORECAST: The threat of lone-wolf attacks will remain elevated, with Islamists largely likely to continue to carry out random attacks in public places, rather than such targeted incidents. Nonetheless, that the incident will prompt copycat plots targeting politicians and law enforcement, as well as individuals with views deemed Islamophobic cannot be ruled out, as witnessed in the beheading of a teacher in France on October 16, 2020. Additionally, given the links to radicalization, authorities are liable to reinforce and strengthen counter-radicalization efforts via prevention programs in the medium term.  
3. FORECAST: With the incident raising concerns over the security of MPs, and given Priti Patel’s order, in the near-term, authorities are likely to bolster the security for most MPs and recommend reducing public schedules. 
4. FORECAST:  Given the currently released details, the attack is liable to strengthen anti-immigrant and Islamophobic sentiments, with associated vigils and protests likely to transpire in the coming days. Moreover, the incident is also liable to increase far-right activity including online propaganda and small-scale assaults targeting immigrants, as well as members and facilities of the local Muslim community, given the suspect’s background.  

1. Travel to the UK may continue as per government directives amid the ongoing COVID-19 restrictions while maintaining heightened vigilance for potential militant activity.
2. Alert authorities immediately upon witnessing suspicious items or behavior.
3. Public, private, and third sector organizations are advised to increase their awareness of threats on social media through the use of threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from fringe online groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.