Armed Conflict

01
Jul 2018
11:54 UTC

Yemen SITUATION UPDATE: Saudi-led Coalition announces thwarting imminent Houthi attacks against maritime traffic in Red Sea on June 30

Executive Summary

  • The reports from the Saudi-led coalition regarding the thwarting of imminent attacks through Houthi-operated boats against maritime traffic in the Red Sea are likely credible, given the retrieved weaponry that fits with prior launched operations by the Shiite group.
  • The al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) attacks come amidst a renewal of activity of the militant group across Yemen, which could stem from the security vacuum created by the diverting of resources from both Houthi and anti-Houthi forces towards the Hodeidah front.
  • The advances in Taiz continue to highlight the ongoing anti-Houthi efforts to move towards Taiz City, by creating multiple fronts in order to facilitate the full clearing of the strategical city from Houthis.
  • Overall, the continued advances amid operation “Golden Victory” aiming to capture Hodeidah City from Houthis are likely to remain gradual, given the Houthis’ entrenchment in the area. That said, given the Shiite group’s lack of manpower and widespread diminished capabilities, the Saudi-led Coalition will over the medium to long-term fully secure the port city, which will favorably shift their standing in the wider conflict and further weaken Houthis, by effectively placing them under land, sea, and air blockade.

Please be advised

Across the country, the following incidents have been reported:

 

Abyan Governorate

Date District/City Brief Description
June 26 Khabar al-Maraqisha Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed responsibility for an IED attack that injured nine UAE-backed Security Belt Forces (SBF)

 

Bayda Governorate

Date District/City Brief Description
June 24 Mukayras AQAP launches ambush, killing two Houthis
June 27 Radman al-Awad District Official Hadi news agency announces capture of al-Faliq, al-Wael, and Kharfan mountains, as well as other locales in Qaniyah area

 

Hajjah Governorate

Map # Date District/City Brief Description
1 June 30 Habl port, Hiran District Official Saudi news agency announces that pro-Houthi forces capture Hiran District’s Habl port
1 June 30 Habl port, Hiran District Official Saudi news agency states that anti-Houthi forces seized Houthi military boats with a number of “medium and heavy weapons”. Reports quoting coalition forces declared that an imminent attack with Houthi-manned boats against fishing vessels was thwarted. Lastly, additional reports indicated that the seized boats were equipped with RPGs and anti-ship missiles.

 

Hodeidah Governorate

Date District/City Brief Description
June 28 Houthi-linked news agency announces launching of Qaher M2 ballistic missile targeting anti-Houthi forces at an unspecified location in Hodeidah Governorate, causing heavy casualties.
June 29 The Houthi-linked news agency reported the launching of a ballistic missile targeting anti-Houthi forces at an unspecified locale in the governorate

 

Ibb Governorate

Date District/City Brief Description
June 26 Hubaysh District AQAP carried out an IED attack that killed six Houthi forces

 

Taiz Governorate

Map # Date District/City Brief Description
2 June 24 Muqbanah District Hadi news agency reports advances in Wadi Risan, located in al-Barah area

Assessments & Forecast

  1. This event comes amidst periodical security-related incidents in the Red Sea, stemming from Houthi-perpetrated attacks against military or commercial vessels passing in the vicinity of Yemen’s western coastline. Thus, the reports indicating that an attack was imminent are likely credible, as the seized boats and weapons fit the pattern of prior Houthi operations, involving both anti-ship missiles and RPG fire. Such an incident was last recorded on May 22, when a Turkish vessel in the Red Sea was struck by a missile launched by the Houthis from the port city of Hodeidah. This recent event is also highly notable as such incidents are still infrequently recorded, and underscores the heightened Houthi efforts to prevent the Saudi-led Coalition from securing Hodeidah. These efforts were further intensified due to the gains recorded by coalition forces within the framework of operation “Golden Victory”, which was launched on June 13, and likely triggered their claimed missile attack against a UAE vessel off Hodeidah City on June 13. Furthermore, the thwarting of the attack by anti-Houthis prior to its materialization illustrates their elevated capabilities in securing the vicinity of Yemen’s western coast from this threat, as well as indicates the overall weakened position of the Houthis’ in successfully conducting such attacks. These are likely symptomatic of a wider diminished operational capabilities by the Shiite group due to their lack of manpower, which is causing them to be overstretched across several fronts in Yemen. FORECAST: Going forward, claimed attacks against vessels remain likely to be recorded over the coming days and weeks, as the Houthis lose more ground to coalition forces in the Hodeidah front.
  2. The AQAP attacks come amidst a renewed activity from the Sunni jihadist group in southern Yemen. The claimed attacks could stem from the increased ability by AQAP militants to operate in the region, by capitalizing on the potential decreased counter-militancy measures implemented in these governorates, leading to a security vacuum in these areas. This is likely due to the diversion of Houthi and anti-Houthi resources towards Hodeidah Governorate, where anti-Houthi forces commenced operation “Golden Victory” on June 13 to capture Hodeidah, the last Houthi-controlled port. Moreover, the release of three successive claims could indicate that the group’s communication channels remain relatively hampered by the multiple counter-militancy raids and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes. Thus, AQAP may have managed to somewhat reconstruct its operational capabilities, while still struggling to publicize and release its launched attacks from lack of proper infrastructure. FORECAST: Overall, further AQAP attacks in the aforementioned governorates are likely to be witnessed over the coming weeks.
  3. The latest advances in Taiz follow a series of anti-Houthi territorial advances in the Muqbanah District in recent period, as well as overall gradual gains across Taiz Governorate. The location of the latest advances is indicative of the Houthis’ strategy to advance towards Taiz City by capturing areas along the strategic N3 Highway, which connects Yemen’s western coast with the city. This would allow anti-Houthi forces to cut off Houthi-controlled areas south of the N3 Highway into an isolated pocket of territory, leading to its complete capture. This would also cause disruptions to Houthi supply lines, while simultaneously creating another front around Taiz City leading to further anti-Houthi territorial gains. FORECAST: With this strategy in mind, anti-Houthi forces are expected to make further territorial gains across Taiz Governorate over the coming days and weeks.

Recommendations

  1. It is advised that those remaining in Sanaa and Aden should initiate contingency and emergency evacuation plans given the international intervention and airstrikes. Contact us at Operations@max-security.com or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans.
  2. We advise against all travel to outlying areas and overland travel, due to the limited government and security presence, ongoing clashes and airstrikes, as well as the heightened threat of attacks and kidnappings.
  3. Foreigners, particularly Westerners, continuing to operate in Yemen are additionally advised to maintain a low profile, exercise heightened vigilance, and avoid locales frequented by foreign, particularly Western nationals. To mitigate the risk of attacks or abductions, ensure that places of stay are equipped with sufficient perimeter security details, alter travel routes, and avoid disclosing sensitive itinerary information to unknown individuals.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Extreme
AFFECTED AREA Abyan, Bayda, Hajjah, Hodeidah, Ibb, Taiz; Yemen
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible

Executive Summary

  • The reports from the Saudi-led coalition regarding the thwarting of imminent attacks through Houthi-operated boats against maritime traffic in the Red Sea are likely credible, given the retrieved weaponry that fits with prior launched operations by the Shiite group.
  • The al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) attacks come amidst a renewal of activity of the militant group across Yemen, which could stem from the security vacuum created by the diverting of resources from both Houthi and anti-Houthi forces towards the Hodeidah front.
  • The advances in Taiz continue to highlight the ongoing anti-Houthi efforts to move towards Taiz City, by creating multiple fronts in order to facilitate the full clearing of the strategical city from Houthis.
  • Overall, the continued advances amid operation “Golden Victory” aiming to capture Hodeidah City from Houthis are likely to remain gradual, given the Houthis’ entrenchment in the area. That said, given the Shiite group’s lack of manpower and widespread diminished capabilities, the Saudi-led Coalition will over the medium to long-term fully secure the port city, which will favorably shift their standing in the wider conflict and further weaken Houthis, by effectively placing them under land, sea, and air blockade.

Please be advised

Across the country, the following incidents have been reported:

 

Abyan Governorate

Date District/City Brief Description
June 26 Khabar al-Maraqisha Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed responsibility for an IED attack that injured nine UAE-backed Security Belt Forces (SBF)

 

Bayda Governorate

Date District/City Brief Description
June 24 Mukayras AQAP launches ambush, killing two Houthis
June 27 Radman al-Awad District Official Hadi news agency announces capture of al-Faliq, al-Wael, and Kharfan mountains, as well as other locales in Qaniyah area

 

Hajjah Governorate

Map # Date District/City Brief Description
1 June 30 Habl port, Hiran District Official Saudi news agency announces that pro-Houthi forces capture Hiran District’s Habl port
1 June 30 Habl port, Hiran District Official Saudi news agency states that anti-Houthi forces seized Houthi military boats with a number of “medium and heavy weapons”. Reports quoting coalition forces declared that an imminent attack with Houthi-manned boats against fishing vessels was thwarted. Lastly, additional reports indicated that the seized boats were equipped with RPGs and anti-ship missiles.

 

Hodeidah Governorate

Date District/City Brief Description
June 28 Houthi-linked news agency announces launching of Qaher M2 ballistic missile targeting anti-Houthi forces at an unspecified location in Hodeidah Governorate, causing heavy casualties.
June 29 The Houthi-linked news agency reported the launching of a ballistic missile targeting anti-Houthi forces at an unspecified locale in the governorate

 

Ibb Governorate

Date District/City Brief Description
June 26 Hubaysh District AQAP carried out an IED attack that killed six Houthi forces

 

Taiz Governorate

Map # Date District/City Brief Description
2 June 24 Muqbanah District Hadi news agency reports advances in Wadi Risan, located in al-Barah area

Assessments & Forecast

  1. This event comes amidst periodical security-related incidents in the Red Sea, stemming from Houthi-perpetrated attacks against military or commercial vessels passing in the vicinity of Yemen’s western coastline. Thus, the reports indicating that an attack was imminent are likely credible, as the seized boats and weapons fit the pattern of prior Houthi operations, involving both anti-ship missiles and RPG fire. Such an incident was last recorded on May 22, when a Turkish vessel in the Red Sea was struck by a missile launched by the Houthis from the port city of Hodeidah. This recent event is also highly notable as such incidents are still infrequently recorded, and underscores the heightened Houthi efforts to prevent the Saudi-led Coalition from securing Hodeidah. These efforts were further intensified due to the gains recorded by coalition forces within the framework of operation “Golden Victory”, which was launched on June 13, and likely triggered their claimed missile attack against a UAE vessel off Hodeidah City on June 13. Furthermore, the thwarting of the attack by anti-Houthis prior to its materialization illustrates their elevated capabilities in securing the vicinity of Yemen’s western coast from this threat, as well as indicates the overall weakened position of the Houthis’ in successfully conducting such attacks. These are likely symptomatic of a wider diminished operational capabilities by the Shiite group due to their lack of manpower, which is causing them to be overstretched across several fronts in Yemen. FORECAST: Going forward, claimed attacks against vessels remain likely to be recorded over the coming days and weeks, as the Houthis lose more ground to coalition forces in the Hodeidah front.
  2. The AQAP attacks come amidst a renewed activity from the Sunni jihadist group in southern Yemen. The claimed attacks could stem from the increased ability by AQAP militants to operate in the region, by capitalizing on the potential decreased counter-militancy measures implemented in these governorates, leading to a security vacuum in these areas. This is likely due to the diversion of Houthi and anti-Houthi resources towards Hodeidah Governorate, where anti-Houthi forces commenced operation “Golden Victory” on June 13 to capture Hodeidah, the last Houthi-controlled port. Moreover, the release of three successive claims could indicate that the group’s communication channels remain relatively hampered by the multiple counter-militancy raids and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes. Thus, AQAP may have managed to somewhat reconstruct its operational capabilities, while still struggling to publicize and release its launched attacks from lack of proper infrastructure. FORECAST: Overall, further AQAP attacks in the aforementioned governorates are likely to be witnessed over the coming weeks.
  3. The latest advances in Taiz follow a series of anti-Houthi territorial advances in the Muqbanah District in recent period, as well as overall gradual gains across Taiz Governorate. The location of the latest advances is indicative of the Houthis’ strategy to advance towards Taiz City by capturing areas along the strategic N3 Highway, which connects Yemen’s western coast with the city. This would allow anti-Houthi forces to cut off Houthi-controlled areas south of the N3 Highway into an isolated pocket of territory, leading to its complete capture. This would also cause disruptions to Houthi supply lines, while simultaneously creating another front around Taiz City leading to further anti-Houthi territorial gains. FORECAST: With this strategy in mind, anti-Houthi forces are expected to make further territorial gains across Taiz Governorate over the coming days and weeks.

Recommendations

  1. It is advised that those remaining in Sanaa and Aden should initiate contingency and emergency evacuation plans given the international intervention and airstrikes. Contact us at Operations@max-security.com or +44 20-3540-0434 for itinerary and contingency support plans.
  2. We advise against all travel to outlying areas and overland travel, due to the limited government and security presence, ongoing clashes and airstrikes, as well as the heightened threat of attacks and kidnappings.
  3. Foreigners, particularly Westerners, continuing to operate in Yemen are additionally advised to maintain a low profile, exercise heightened vigilance, and avoid locales frequented by foreign, particularly Western nationals. To mitigate the risk of attacks or abductions, ensure that places of stay are equipped with sufficient perimeter security details, alter travel routes, and avoid disclosing sensitive itinerary information to unknown individuals.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL Extreme
AFFECTED AREA Abyan, Bayda, Hajjah, Hodeidah, Ibb, Taiz; Yemen
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Extreme
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Credible