Current Situation: 

• On February 15, a 24-year-old was arrested in Venado Tuerto, Santa Fe for plotting terrorist attacks. 
• The arrest was made subsequent to an investigation by Spanish authorities, who detected that the suspect had shared “jihadist” content on a messaging platform.  

Assessments & Forecast: Based on the “jihadist” content shared, the suspect appears to have been radicalized by Islamist extremism. However, it is unlikely that the suspect posed a credible threat, considering that only electronic devices were seized and no details on the attack or possession of any weapons were reported. With jihadist terrorist activity limited to money laundering in Argentina, apart from the 1992 and 1994 Hezbollah bombings, the potential for a mass-casualty attack remains low as compared to lone-wolf attacks influenced by online extremist rhetoric. This also speaks to the youth’s susceptibility to online radicalization, via both Islamist and far-right extremist channels. Two of the four suspects (aged 23 and 35) arrested for plotting an assassination attempt against former Vice President Cristina Kirchner in September 2022 were involved in far-right groups across multiple encrypted social media platforms. Similarly, two suspects (aged 21 and 26) detained for plotting an attack on a Jewish community in Tucuman on April 23, 2021, revealed their plot via messaging platforms, before which theories of race superiority were disseminated on the same channel. The incident also illustrates transnational security cooperation over threats emanating from heightened sentiments surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict, with Mossad previously liaising for the arrest of alleged Hezbollah operatives in Brazil in November 2023. 

Current Situation: 

• As of February 20, 122 deputies belonging to opposition parties and some allies in the ruling coalition signed a request to open an impeachment process aimed at removing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva from office. This follows his comments comparing Israel’s retaliatory actions in Gaza with the Holocaust.  
• The impeachment request alleges that Lula’s statement constituted “an act of hostility against a foreign nation,” thereby compromising Brazil’s neutrality.  
• Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz declared Lula persona non grata on February 19 until he retracts his comments. Brazil has also recalled its ambassador to Israel. 

Assessments & Forecast: The developments are part of an escalating rhetoric by Brazilian authorities against Israel’s hostilities in Gaza since October, with the Brazilian government accusing Israel in November 2023 of stalling the repatriation of 34 Brazilians stuck in Gaza. Nonetheless, these tensions are unlikely to impact bilateral trade, travel between the countries or disrupt consular services at either embassy and will remain confined to the diplomatic realm and the political discourse. Consequently, diplomatic tensions will remain high despite efforts, including by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken who is slated to visit Brazil on February 21, to assuage the dispute. Domestically, the impeachment request against Lula is likely to be rejected, given that it requires the support of 342 out of 513 deputies to initiate the process. Regardless, the likelihood of pro-Israel activists staging protests to condemn Lula’s statements remains possible in the country’s main cities in the coming days, although these will likely remain relatively small and peaceful.  

Current Situation: 

• On February 16, several criminals targeted 25 diners in a robbery attempt in a restaurant, located at the intersection of Carrera 17a and Calle 122 in the upscale Santa Barbara neighborhood in northern Bogota, at approximately 17:37 (local time).  
• Security cameras captured the incident showing two armed men arriving on a motorcycle and robbing diners at gunpoint and stealing wallets, cellphones, and jewelry before fleeing. Following the incident, the Policia Metropolitana de Bogota metropolitan police apprehended one of the suspects, while the others evaded capture. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incident highlights the ongoing threat of armed robberies at dining venues in Bogota’s upscale neighborhoods. Evidence of this trend includes a similar robbery at a restaurant in the Los Cedritos neighborhood on February 12, along with two additional incidents on February 6 and February 11 at other upscale dining venues in Usaquen. These robberies, characterized by a similar modus operandi, suggest they were perpetrated by the same group or inspired by these events as copycat crimes. The frequency and success of such incidents are liable to embolden criminals, thus increasing the risk of further robberies. Therefore, armed robberies targeting restaurant patrons in Bogota, especially across upscale neighborhoods such as Creditos, Chapinero, La Candelaria, Suba, and Usaquen, are likely to recur intermittently going forward, until at least specific security measures are introduced and implemented by the police. These events underscore escalating security concerns in Bogota’s affluent areas, which will possibly prompt restaurants to revamp their private security. 

Current Situation: 

• On February 15, Alianza Mexicana de Organizacion de Transportistas A.C. (AMOTAC) organized a nationwide strike, with demonstrations on federal highways, to protest insecurity, including thefts on major highways.  
• Trucks numbering in the low dozens blockaded key checkpoints on the highways resulting in lane closures, with the total number of truckers demonstrating estimated to be in the low-to-mid thousands. 
• The protests were concentrated on the highways leading to Mexico City, with closures reported on Mexico-Cuernacava, Mexico-Queretaro, Mexico-Pachuca, Mexico-Puebla, and the Mexico-Puebla highways.  

Assessments & Forecast: The response to the protest action, with mobilizations recording on main highways leading to Mexico City for around eight hours, reflects heightened sentiments among truckers over rising cargo thefts. This is reflected in reports indicating a five percent increase in cargo thefts on highways from 2022 to 2023, and the resulting losses of 410 million USD, followed by a 6.7 percent increase in 2022 compared to 2021. With authorities promising to deploy 1,300 security personnel and 2,000 more patrols to reinforce highway surveillance, the same is likely to be concentrated along major highways connecting central states, that host several warehouses and distribution centers, making them more lucrative for cargo thefts. This is particularly likely in State of Mexico and Puebla which have been primary hotspots for cargo thefts. Further demonstrations, with potentially a wider response, by unionized truckers remain likely in the near-to-medium term. AMOTAC indicating a possibility of another national strike as of February 18, contingent on promises delivered and results of the same, supports the likelihood.  

Current Situation:  

• On February 15, illegal miners assaulted the head of the Prosecutor’s Office (environmental matters) and police personnel during a security operation against illegal mining in Huamachuco, Sanchez Carrion, La Libertad. The assailants threw stones and punctured the officials’ vehicles.   
• On February 18, President Dina Boluarte announced the deployment of 150 police officers to La Libertad due to insecurity related to illegal mining activities. 

Assessments & Forecast: This incident highlights the notable increase in the presence of illegal mining groups in La Libertad and subsequent attacks on security personnel. This is buttressed by over 100 illegal miners storming a police convoy in Pataz on January 7 coupled with Prime Minister Alberto Otarola’s implementation of a 60-day State of Emergency (SoE) in Trujillo and Pataz to tackle violence related to illegal mining on February 12. Meanwhile, the potential for attacks against mining companies and related individuals also remains, as evidenced by a January 25 attack on a high voltage tower in Pataz, likely prompting an increased presence of private security personnel. This is buttressed by February 11 reports indicating that mining companies in Pataz increased their security personnel by approximately seven times in recent months. Further, increased military deployments are anticipated, with PM Alberto Otarola proposing an Army installation and the deployment of 150 police officers to La Libertad, per February 18 reports. Nevertheless, criminal groups such as the La Gran FA will continue to employ violent tactics manifesting as kidnappings of mining-related businesspersons and workers and attacks targeting security personnel.  

Current Situation: 

• Per February 13 reports, the Venezuelan based-Tren de Aragua (TdA) criminal organization, is allegedly behind a series of phone robberies in New York City, NY. 
• TdA is reportedly taking advantage of migrant sanctuary policies, which provide safe haven for undocumented immigrants, to establish its presence and recruit migrants for snatch-and-grab cellphone robberies. 

Assessments & Forecast: The modus operandi, where robbers on mopeds snatch phones from victims, has been recurrent in recent months with police reporting 62 incidents since November across five boroughs, of which 57 percent occurred in Manhattan. Despite ongoing efforts by Mayor Eric Adams and the New York Police Department (NYPD) to crack down on such robberies, the threat posed by “ghost criminals”, referring to undocumented migrants with no names, phone numbers, or any other paper trail in the USA, who are harder to trace, are likely to further aid TdA in growing their presence and recruit migrants. This reflects the potential for the group to expand on US soil and seek advantage of the US immigration policy. TdA’s ability to embed itself within migrant flows poses significant challenges to border security and law enforcement, complicating efforts to distinguish between asylum seekers and criminal elements. Such challenges will likely be aggravated given the FBI’s concerns about TdA allying with the Mara Salvatrucha gang (MS-13), thus broadening the scope of their criminal reach. Based on all these factors, while increased arrests, as seen on February 5 by the NYPD can be anticipated, the risk of phone-snatching robberies will remain high citywide, particularly in Manhattan.