17
Apr 2024
13:28 UTC
Europe Alert: Several countries bolster security near Israeli, Jewish institutions ahead of Passover citing Islamist threat, as of April 17; similar measures expected regionwide
Current Situation
- According to April 17 reports, several countries have bolstered security measures near Israeli and Jewish institutions citing concerns over national security following Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel.
- In France, security around Jewish-affiliated institutions, including schools and synagogues, has been significantly bolstered, as of April 17. This followed Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin calling for strengthened security measures citing Iran’s attack and the approaching Jewish festival of Passover, which will take place from April 22-30.
- In France, security around Jewish-affiliated institutions, including schools and synagogues, has been significantly bolstered, as of April 17. This followed Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin calling for strengthened security measures citing Iran’s attack and the approaching Jewish festival of Passover, which will take place from April 22-30.
- In Germany, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser assured heightened security measures near Israeli and Jewish institutions on April 16. Faeser added that authorities were “closely monitoring” the impact of Iran’s attack on Germany’s national security situation.
- In Germany, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser assured heightened security measures near Israeli and Jewish institutions on April 16. Faeser added that authorities were “closely monitoring” the impact of Iran’s attack on Germany’s national security situation.
- In Hungary, on April 16, the national counterterrorism force Terrorelharitasi Kozpont (TEK) announced an increased terror preparedness after Prime Minister Viktor Orban convened a meeting of the Defense Council on April 14 to address the security and economic consequences of the Iranian attack.
- TEK added that the terror alert level remained at medium (class 3, the third highest on a four-tier scale), with the elevated security measures solely precautionary in nature.
- Further, authorities announced that bolstered security measures will be deployed in public spaces, outside diplomatic missions, and Jewish-affiliated institutions nationwide, especially in major urban centers like Budapest, Debrecen, and Pecs, with these cities also likely to witness armed patrols. Additionally, increased checks will be implemented at all border crossings to prevent potential threat actors. Authorities added that the aforementioned measures will be especially heightened during the upcoming Passover period.
- In Hungary, on April 16, the national counterterrorism force Terrorelharitasi Kozpont (TEK) announced an increased terror preparedness after Prime Minister Viktor Orban convened a meeting of the Defense Council on April 14 to address the security and economic consequences of the Iranian attack.
- TEK added that the terror alert level remained at medium (class 3, the third highest on a four-tier scale), with the elevated security measures solely precautionary in nature.
- Further, authorities announced that bolstered security measures will be deployed in public spaces, outside diplomatic missions, and Jewish-affiliated institutions nationwide, especially in major urban centers like Budapest, Debrecen, and Pecs, with these cities also likely to witness armed patrols. Additionally, increased checks will be implemented at all border crossings to prevent potential threat actors. Authorities added that the aforementioned measures will be especially heightened during the upcoming Passover period.
- In Italy, the Ministry of Interior convened a meeting following Iran’s attack, stating that the primary security risk stemmed from lone actors. Authorities have called for increased checking and surveillance at border checkpoints, including elevated countermeasures against potential threat actors entering the country via illegal migration.
- Accordingly, heightened security measures will be implemented outside Israeli and Jewish-affiliated sites, monuments in Vatican City, airports, and railway stations, as well as public events garnering large turnouts such as concerts and sporting tournaments. Authorities added that surveillance will be increased particularly along the Slovenian border, citing this as a potential entry route for “jihadist elements”.
- In Milan, bolstered security measures are in place for the ongoing Salone del Mobile, scheduled until April 21. In Venice, surveillance will be increased during the Biennale from April 20, with associated security measures heightened at Piazza San Marco. Meanwhile, authorities in Rome stated that all events garnering large-scale turnouts will be monitored, in addition to surveilling potential threat actors online.
- In Italy, the Ministry of Interior convened a meeting following Iran’s attack, stating that the primary security risk stemmed from lone actors. Authorities have called for increased checking and surveillance at border checkpoints, including elevated countermeasures against potential threat actors entering the country via illegal migration.
- Accordingly, heightened security measures will be implemented outside Israeli and Jewish-affiliated sites, monuments in Vatican City, airports, and railway stations, as well as public events garnering large turnouts such as concerts and sporting tournaments. Authorities added that surveillance will be increased particularly along the Slovenian border, citing this as a potential entry route for “jihadist elements”.
- In Milan, bolstered security measures are in place for the ongoing Salone del Mobile, scheduled until April 21. In Venice, surveillance will be increased during the Biennale from April 20, with associated security measures heightened at Piazza San Marco. Meanwhile, authorities in Rome stated that all events garnering large-scale turnouts will be monitored, in addition to surveilling potential threat actors online.
Assessments & Forecast
- Considering the reference to Tehran’s attack, the announced security measures are indicative of concerns over the attack exacerbating the already heightened Islamist terrorist threat prevalent regionwide, evidenced by the Islamic State (IS) claiming the March 22 terrorist attack on Moscow and issuing calls for attacks in Europe in April.
- Indeed, Iran’s attack is likely to be used as a rallying point for Islamist terrorist groups regardless of ideological differences, given that Israel and Jews remain a primary target for these groups. This is evidenced by transnational terrorist organizations, including IS and al-Qaeda, continuing to use the Israel-Hamas conflict to incite attacks against Europe, and the West at large, since October 2023. Given this, such calls to action carry the risk of inciting attacks by self-radicalized individuals, with these groups primarily focusing on disseminating instructions and strategies for individuals to execute attacks independently. With that, the potential for lone actors to carry out terrorist attacks remains elevated, as supported by Italy’s reference to lone actor attacks.
- The presence of Iranian proxies, including Hamas and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, operating in Europe further elevates concerns over plots targeting Jews and Israelis. The December 2023 arrests of three Hamas-affiliated suspects in Berlin plotting an attack on the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm, Sweden, adds credence to this. The development is also expected to raise concerns over plots backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeting both Israeli and Jewish targets regionwide, especially ahead of Passover. That authorities foiled an alleged Iranian plot against Israeli and Jewish targets during Passover in Athens, Greece on March 28, 2023, further supports the potential for such attacks.
- However, IRGC-backed plots and plots by organized terrorist groups are likely to be thwarted by authorities, given the elevated counterterrorism operations carried out regionwide, as well as European authorities’ sustained coordination with Israeli intelligence agencies, including Mossad and Shin Bet. This is supported by the precedent of past plots foiled in cooperation with Mossad in Europe, including the December 2023 and June 2023 plots in Cyprus, the March 2023 plot in Greece, as well as the December 2023 Hamas arrests in Germany.
- FORECAST: Given the strengthened security measures, an uptick in foiled attack plots should be anticipated regionwide in the near-to-medium term. This is especially likely in countries that already have a heightened terror threat level, including France, Germany, and Sweden, as well as in those countries hosting large immigrant and Muslim communities. This is especially likely in the coming days over Passover, supported by recent plots thwarted in France, Germany, and Switzerland over Easter.
- FORECAST: With bolstered security measures and heightened online surveillance, the primary threat of successful attacks is expected to stem from self-radicalized lone actor attacks, given their reduced vulnerability to detection from authorities. Based on precedent, these attacks are primarily likely to manifest as stabbings given the relative ease, lack of planning, and low detection involved in such attacks. However, the potential for lone actor attacks using different modus operandi, including firearms, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and vehicular rammings, cannot be ruled out. Further, the threat of lone actor attacks using firearms or explosives is higher in countries with prevalent organized crime networks, such as Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden, given the nexus between criminal networks and Islamist terrorist groups.
- FORECAST: Based on these points, Israeli and Jewish individuals, Israeli diplomatic missions, Jewish community centers, schools, synagogues, and kosher restaurants are likely to remain primary targets in the immediate and near term. Traditional attack targets, including public squares, tourist hotspots, transportation hubs, shopping centers, airports, and airlines, as well as locations with symbolic values, including churches and LGBTQ+ establishments, also remain vulnerable.
- FORECAST: Further, considering that Passover is already a period of elevated risk, with Islamist groups known to target notable holidays (especially Jewish holidays), coupled with the elevated Islamist threat regionwide, other countries Europewide are expected to announce similar measures. As such, bolstered security in the vicinity of the aforementioned potential targets can be anticipated in the coming days, especially as Passover approaches.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in Europe on April 17 and in the coming weeks are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Jewish institutions and large public gatherings due to potential Islamist terrorist threats in the leadup to and during Passover.
- Travel to Europe may continue as per government guidelines while remaining cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding national and local terrorism threat levels.
- If alerted to suspicious activity, inform authorities immediately.
- If a potential stabbing, shooting, or similar violent incident manifests, it is advised to leave the area immediately, if possible, or take shelter at a secure location.
- Consider keeping a low profile and limiting the wearing or presenting of overt signs or symbols associated with Judaism and/or Israel. Those that wear the traditional Jewish head covering (kippah), are advised to consider wearing an additional head covering, such as a baseball cap.
- Public, private, and third-sector organizations are advised to increase awareness of threats on social media using threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from online fringe groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
- For any questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected] or call +44 203 540 0434.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Current Situation
- According to April 17 reports, several countries have bolstered security measures near Israeli and Jewish institutions citing concerns over national security following Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel.
- In France, security around Jewish-affiliated institutions, including schools and synagogues, has been significantly bolstered, as of April 17. This followed Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin calling for strengthened security measures citing Iran’s attack and the approaching Jewish festival of Passover, which will take place from April 22-30.
- In France, security around Jewish-affiliated institutions, including schools and synagogues, has been significantly bolstered, as of April 17. This followed Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin calling for strengthened security measures citing Iran’s attack and the approaching Jewish festival of Passover, which will take place from April 22-30.
- In Germany, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser assured heightened security measures near Israeli and Jewish institutions on April 16. Faeser added that authorities were “closely monitoring” the impact of Iran’s attack on Germany’s national security situation.
- In Germany, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser assured heightened security measures near Israeli and Jewish institutions on April 16. Faeser added that authorities were “closely monitoring” the impact of Iran’s attack on Germany’s national security situation.
- In Hungary, on April 16, the national counterterrorism force Terrorelharitasi Kozpont (TEK) announced an increased terror preparedness after Prime Minister Viktor Orban convened a meeting of the Defense Council on April 14 to address the security and economic consequences of the Iranian attack.
- TEK added that the terror alert level remained at medium (class 3, the third highest on a four-tier scale), with the elevated security measures solely precautionary in nature.
- Further, authorities announced that bolstered security measures will be deployed in public spaces, outside diplomatic missions, and Jewish-affiliated institutions nationwide, especially in major urban centers like Budapest, Debrecen, and Pecs, with these cities also likely to witness armed patrols. Additionally, increased checks will be implemented at all border crossings to prevent potential threat actors. Authorities added that the aforementioned measures will be especially heightened during the upcoming Passover period.
- In Hungary, on April 16, the national counterterrorism force Terrorelharitasi Kozpont (TEK) announced an increased terror preparedness after Prime Minister Viktor Orban convened a meeting of the Defense Council on April 14 to address the security and economic consequences of the Iranian attack.
- TEK added that the terror alert level remained at medium (class 3, the third highest on a four-tier scale), with the elevated security measures solely precautionary in nature.
- Further, authorities announced that bolstered security measures will be deployed in public spaces, outside diplomatic missions, and Jewish-affiliated institutions nationwide, especially in major urban centers like Budapest, Debrecen, and Pecs, with these cities also likely to witness armed patrols. Additionally, increased checks will be implemented at all border crossings to prevent potential threat actors. Authorities added that the aforementioned measures will be especially heightened during the upcoming Passover period.
- In Italy, the Ministry of Interior convened a meeting following Iran’s attack, stating that the primary security risk stemmed from lone actors. Authorities have called for increased checking and surveillance at border checkpoints, including elevated countermeasures against potential threat actors entering the country via illegal migration.
- Accordingly, heightened security measures will be implemented outside Israeli and Jewish-affiliated sites, monuments in Vatican City, airports, and railway stations, as well as public events garnering large turnouts such as concerts and sporting tournaments. Authorities added that surveillance will be increased particularly along the Slovenian border, citing this as a potential entry route for “jihadist elements”.
- In Milan, bolstered security measures are in place for the ongoing Salone del Mobile, scheduled until April 21. In Venice, surveillance will be increased during the Biennale from April 20, with associated security measures heightened at Piazza San Marco. Meanwhile, authorities in Rome stated that all events garnering large-scale turnouts will be monitored, in addition to surveilling potential threat actors online.
- In Italy, the Ministry of Interior convened a meeting following Iran’s attack, stating that the primary security risk stemmed from lone actors. Authorities have called for increased checking and surveillance at border checkpoints, including elevated countermeasures against potential threat actors entering the country via illegal migration.
- Accordingly, heightened security measures will be implemented outside Israeli and Jewish-affiliated sites, monuments in Vatican City, airports, and railway stations, as well as public events garnering large turnouts such as concerts and sporting tournaments. Authorities added that surveillance will be increased particularly along the Slovenian border, citing this as a potential entry route for “jihadist elements”.
- In Milan, bolstered security measures are in place for the ongoing Salone del Mobile, scheduled until April 21. In Venice, surveillance will be increased during the Biennale from April 20, with associated security measures heightened at Piazza San Marco. Meanwhile, authorities in Rome stated that all events garnering large-scale turnouts will be monitored, in addition to surveilling potential threat actors online.
Assessments & Forecast
- Considering the reference to Tehran’s attack, the announced security measures are indicative of concerns over the attack exacerbating the already heightened Islamist terrorist threat prevalent regionwide, evidenced by the Islamic State (IS) claiming the March 22 terrorist attack on Moscow and issuing calls for attacks in Europe in April.
- Indeed, Iran’s attack is likely to be used as a rallying point for Islamist terrorist groups regardless of ideological differences, given that Israel and Jews remain a primary target for these groups. This is evidenced by transnational terrorist organizations, including IS and al-Qaeda, continuing to use the Israel-Hamas conflict to incite attacks against Europe, and the West at large, since October 2023. Given this, such calls to action carry the risk of inciting attacks by self-radicalized individuals, with these groups primarily focusing on disseminating instructions and strategies for individuals to execute attacks independently. With that, the potential for lone actors to carry out terrorist attacks remains elevated, as supported by Italy’s reference to lone actor attacks.
- The presence of Iranian proxies, including Hamas and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, operating in Europe further elevates concerns over plots targeting Jews and Israelis. The December 2023 arrests of three Hamas-affiliated suspects in Berlin plotting an attack on the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm, Sweden, adds credence to this. The development is also expected to raise concerns over plots backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeting both Israeli and Jewish targets regionwide, especially ahead of Passover. That authorities foiled an alleged Iranian plot against Israeli and Jewish targets during Passover in Athens, Greece on March 28, 2023, further supports the potential for such attacks.
- However, IRGC-backed plots and plots by organized terrorist groups are likely to be thwarted by authorities, given the elevated counterterrorism operations carried out regionwide, as well as European authorities’ sustained coordination with Israeli intelligence agencies, including Mossad and Shin Bet. This is supported by the precedent of past plots foiled in cooperation with Mossad in Europe, including the December 2023 and June 2023 plots in Cyprus, the March 2023 plot in Greece, as well as the December 2023 Hamas arrests in Germany.
- FORECAST: Given the strengthened security measures, an uptick in foiled attack plots should be anticipated regionwide in the near-to-medium term. This is especially likely in countries that already have a heightened terror threat level, including France, Germany, and Sweden, as well as in those countries hosting large immigrant and Muslim communities. This is especially likely in the coming days over Passover, supported by recent plots thwarted in France, Germany, and Switzerland over Easter.
- FORECAST: With bolstered security measures and heightened online surveillance, the primary threat of successful attacks is expected to stem from self-radicalized lone actor attacks, given their reduced vulnerability to detection from authorities. Based on precedent, these attacks are primarily likely to manifest as stabbings given the relative ease, lack of planning, and low detection involved in such attacks. However, the potential for lone actor attacks using different modus operandi, including firearms, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and vehicular rammings, cannot be ruled out. Further, the threat of lone actor attacks using firearms or explosives is higher in countries with prevalent organized crime networks, such as Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden, given the nexus between criminal networks and Islamist terrorist groups.
- FORECAST: Based on these points, Israeli and Jewish individuals, Israeli diplomatic missions, Jewish community centers, schools, synagogues, and kosher restaurants are likely to remain primary targets in the immediate and near term. Traditional attack targets, including public squares, tourist hotspots, transportation hubs, shopping centers, airports, and airlines, as well as locations with symbolic values, including churches and LGBTQ+ establishments, also remain vulnerable.
- FORECAST: Further, considering that Passover is already a period of elevated risk, with Islamist groups known to target notable holidays (especially Jewish holidays), coupled with the elevated Islamist threat regionwide, other countries Europewide are expected to announce similar measures. As such, bolstered security in the vicinity of the aforementioned potential targets can be anticipated in the coming days, especially as Passover approaches.
Recommendations
- Those operating or residing in Europe on April 17 and in the coming weeks are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of Jewish institutions and large public gatherings due to potential Islamist terrorist threats in the leadup to and during Passover.
- Travel to Europe may continue as per government guidelines while remaining cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding national and local terrorism threat levels.
- If alerted to suspicious activity, inform authorities immediately.
- If a potential stabbing, shooting, or similar violent incident manifests, it is advised to leave the area immediately, if possible, or take shelter at a secure location.
- Consider keeping a low profile and limiting the wearing or presenting of overt signs or symbols associated with Judaism and/or Israel. Those that wear the traditional Jewish head covering (kippah), are advised to consider wearing an additional head covering, such as a baseball cap.
- Public, private, and third-sector organizations are advised to increase awareness of threats on social media using threat monitoring services. Increased awareness of an organization’s political footprint and perceptions from online fringe groups can help uncover potential violent actors and plots before they occur.
- For any questions and risk assessments, please contact [email protected] or call +44 203 540 0434.
COUNTRY RISK LEVEL
Low
AFFECTED AREA
Europe
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL
Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE
Confirmed
Related Reports
France
-
Militancy/TerrorismFrance Alert: 16-year-old arrested for planning mass-casualty attack in school in Antibes, per April 24 reports; reflects latent risk of attacks at educational institutions -
Militancy/TerrorismFrance Alert: Teenager arrested for planning to attack La Defense, near Paris, during Olympics on April 23; further terrorist plots targeting Olympics likely to be foiled -
DevelopingFrance Alert: Security operation ongoing at Iranian Embassy in Paris after suspect threatens explosion as of afternoon hours (local time) on April 19; avoid non-essential travel -
Militancy/TerrorismEurope Alert: IS issues call for attacks targeting stadiums hosting Champions League matches on April 8; reiterates elevated Islamist threat amid growing radicalization efforts
Related Reports
France
-
Militancy/TerrorismFrance Alert: 16-year-old arrested for planning mass-casualty attack in school in Antibes, per April 24 reports; reflects latent risk of attacks at educational institutions
-
Militancy/TerrorismFrance Alert: Teenager arrested for planning to attack La Defense, near Paris, during Olympics on April 23; further terrorist plots targeting Olympics likely to be foiled
-
DevelopingFrance Alert: Security operation ongoing at Iranian Embassy in Paris after suspect threatens explosion as of afternoon hours (local time) on April 19; avoid non-essential travel
-
Militancy/TerrorismEurope Alert: IS issues call for attacks targeting stadiums hosting Champions League matches on April 8; reiterates elevated Islamist threat amid growing radicalization efforts