Current Situation: Activists from Fridays for Future have called for a Global Climate Strike regionwide on April 19. In Canada, Vancouver, BC, a strike is scheduled at 2909 West Broadway at 15:00 (local time). In Colombia, a protest is planned at Colegio Antonio Baraya in Bogota from 10:00-11:00. In the USA, protests are planned nationwide. In Austin, TX, a demonstration is scheduled at the University of Texas at Austin Main Building at 17:00. In Las Vegas, NV, a strike is scheduled at Lloyd D. George Courthouse at 10:00. In New York City, NY, a protest march will begin at Foley Square at 14:00, ending at Battery Park at 18:00. In Seattle, WA, a strike is scheduled in front of the town hall at 1119 at 8th Avenue at 12:00.

Assessments and Forecast: Given precedent and social media traction, the demonstrations are expected to witness turnouts in the low-to-high hundreds each, with low-to-mid thousands expected in Bogota, New York, and Seattle. While protests are expected to transpire peacefully, bolstered security measures are likely to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be anticipated.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned cities in Canada, Colombia, and the USA on April 19 are advised to allot for traffic disruptions in the vicinity of all protest locations.

Current Situation: Environment Canada (EC) has issued red alerts, the highest on a three-tier scale, for heavy snowfall in parts of eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba through April 19. Ecuador’s Instituto Ncaional de Meterologia e Hidrologia (INAMHI) has issued red alerts, the highest on a three-tier scale, for high-intensity rainfall in parts of Morona Santiago, Napo, Orellana, Pastaza, and Sucumbios through April 19 and Bolivar, Carchi, Cotopaxi, Esmeraldas, Imbabura, Los Rios, Pichincha, and Santo Domingo de los Tsachilas for April 19 and April 20. Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia del Peru has issued orange alerts, the second highest on a three-tier scale, for heavy rains in parts of Amazonas, Cajamarca, Huanuco, Junin, La Libertad, Loreto, Pasco, San Martin, and Ucayali through April 20. In the USA, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a freeze warning in Oregon and Washington; winter storm warnings in Montana and Wyoming; a red flag warning for critical fire weather in Colorado on April 18. 10,588 customers in California, 23,310 in Pennsylvania, and 13,566 in West Virginia are facing power cuts due to adverse weather on April 18.

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in the aforementioned areas of Canada, Ecuador, Peru, and the USA on April 18-20 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks.

Current Situation: On April 17 the British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) issued an advisory against all but essential travel to river areas west of Amazonas state, where Brazil shares borders with Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela. Individuals are advised to avoid the Amazonas River area west of Codajas, east of Belem do Solimoes, Itaquai River, Japura River region, and Rio Negro area. According to the statement, drug traffickers “travel by the river routes in the Amazonas state where there is a low presence of police and local authorities.”

Assessments & Forecast: While not triggered by a specific event, the alert likely arose from regular risk evaluations, given the presence of organized criminal groups, including Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV), who vie for dominance of drug-trafficking routes. This is evidenced by an April 16 operation in Manaus and Tabatinga, Amazonas, where authorities executed four arrests and 18 search and seizure warrants, targeting a group suspected of recruiting and financing mules for interstate drug-trafficking. While these river areas are not frequently patrolled, authorities will likely continue conducting sporadic operations across the state.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Brazil in Amazonas River area on April 17 and the coming days are advised to avoid non-essential travel due to the high risk of criminal activity in these areas.

Current Situation: President Daniel Noboa announced through Executive Decree 226 that the workday will be suspended for public and private sector employees on April 18-19 due to a nationwide electricity outage. The national electricity distribution company, Corporacion Nacional de Electricidad CNEL-EP, announced scheduled power cuts in at least seven provinces starting from 00:00 on April 18, leading to anticipated water shortages in Quito and Guayaquil until April 20. Medical appointments and surgeries will be rescheduled, but emergency services at type C health centers and hospitals will continue unaffected. Banks will operate normally, while Consejo de la Judicatura, judiciary council, and La Corte Nacional de Justicia, national court of justice, will suspend work except for urgent matters. Registro Civil, civil registry, will operate normally for scheduled appointments, while Superintendencia de Economia Popular y Solidaria, authority for the popular economy sector, will operate normally. Additionally, Aeropuerto Internacional Mariscal Sucre (UIO) in Quito will continue operating normally on April 18-19. Secretaria de Educacion Superior, Ciencia, Tecnologia e Innovacion (Senescyt) government agency announced that in-person classes at universities will be suspended. Likewise, classes at public institutions will be suspended.

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Ecuador on April 18-19 are advised to allot for disruptions to water supply due to the slated nationwide power outages, as well as disruptions to the public sector and medical services due to the slated workday suspension.

Current Situation: The Empresa Nacional de Energia Electrica (ENEE), the state electricity company announced nationwide power outages on April 18 to carry out maintenance work. The ENEE also mentioned that the hours of outages will vary depending on the area. In Cortes, power outages are slated across Choloma municipality starting from 08:15 (local time) to 16:15. Similarly, power outages are scheduled at similar timings across Yoro and Lempira. Additionally, in Santa Barbara, outages are slated from 08:30 to 16:30. The exact details regarding the neighborhoods and timings of the power outages can be found here.

Recommendation: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas in Honduras on April 18 are advised to allot for disruptions due to the slated power outages.

Current Situation: On April 16, the government presented a package of four bills to Congress aimed at combating organized crime. The proposed measures include an anti-mafia law that would institute penalties of 8 to 10 years imprisonment for association with organized crime groups. It also proposes the creation of a National Registry of Genetic Data to assist in criminal investigations and seeks more leniency for violent acts committed in self-defense, among other measures.

Assessments & Forecast: The bill reflects President Javier Milei-led administration’s comprehensive efforts to fulfill his 2023 presidential campaign promises to reform the criminal justice system, including security and intelligence services, and penitentiary system. Although Argentina has one of the lowest homicides rates across Latin America, the bills nevertheless reflect authorities’ attempts to crack down on other crimes. This is evidenced by violent robberies increasing three-fold between 2020 and 2022 and with Rosario witnessing four times increase in homicides rate than the national average in 2023. That said, the threat of violent robberies, burglaries, and homicides will persist, particularly across high-crime cities namely Cordoba, La Plata, Mara del Plata, Rosario, and Villa Gesell.

Current Situation: On April 16, prosecutors from the Special Action Group to Combat Organized Crime (GAECO), along with the Policia Militar announced serving 15 temporary arrest warrants, including three councilors and executing 42 search warrants across Sao Paulo amid Operacao Munditia. The operation seeks to dismantle Primeiro Comando da Capital’s (PCC) money laundering scheme that includes defrauding public tenders across Sao Paulo.

Assessments & Forecast: The security operation illustrates the government’s sustained measures to combat PCC’s money laundering efforts, as seen in Operacao Fim da Linha that led to six arrests linked to PCC in Sao Paulo on April 9. The purported collusion between PCC-local level public officials underscores the infiltration of PCC in local governance, facilitating the group to leverage two transport cooperatives that became a stock corporation in 2013 and 2014, to place its members in charge, infuse capital, and divide earned profits among its affiliates, as revealed in the April 9 probe. The group is also known for employing clandestine techniques to launder proceeds from drug-trafficking, by creating shell churches and digital bank accounts, thus circumventing police scrutiny and potential apprehensions.

Current Situation: On April 17, Honduras recalled its diplomat from Quito, Ecuador. Venezuelan President Maduro announced its embassy’s closure in Quito on April 16. These were announced in solidarity to denounce Ecuador’s raids on the Mexican embassy to arrest Ecuador’s former Vice President Jorge Glas over corruption charges on April 5.  

Assessments & Forecast: The recent developments coupled with Colombia suspending a bilateral meeting with Ecuador on April 15 and Honduras and Bolivia demanding Ecuador’s suspension from the UN on April 11 highlight the escalation of widespread international condemnation of the raid by Ecuador. Meanwhile, Mexico’s indefinite suspension of embassy services in Ecuador and Bolivia’s summoning of its ambassador from Quito will likely disrupt consular services and travel, particularly for nationals of said countries in Ecuador. In addition, ongoing tensions could potentially lead to a rise in politically-motivated online hate speech as well as prompt protests from Mexican nationals condemning Ecuador’s “interventionism”. This is supported by April 14 reports indicating Ecuador nationals in Mexico facing death threats online after the raids and the April 6 demonstration outside the Ecuadorian Embassy in Mexico City. 

Current Situation: Per April 15 reports, Luis Garcia Corrales, the Secretary and Culiacan council candidate of Partido Sinaloense (PAS) and his party associate were reported kidnapped in Culiacan on April 13. In response, the PAS suspended electoral campaigns in Sinaloa ahead of the June 2 general and local elections. On April 16, the two kidnapped PAS members were found alive. Authorities have not confirmed further details regarding the incident’s circumstances.  

Assessments & Forecast: That the election campaign for local elections in Sinaloa commenced on April 15, it is plausible that a locally active organized criminal group, such as Cartel de Sinaloa (CDS), may have orchestrated the kidnapping to assert influence amid a potential narco-political nexus. September 2023 reports citing allegations on CDS’ Los Chapitos faction reportedly assisting the Movimiento de Regeneracion Nacional party through propaganda campaigns and intimidations of opposition candidates ahead of June 2021 local elections in Sinaloa support the likelihood. The risk of shootings and kidnappings targeting local candidates is expected to remain heightened ahead of the June 2 elections, with at least 32 violent incidents targeting political figures reported between January-March 2024.

Current Situation: On April 16, one man was killed, and three others were injured in a shooting at the intersection of Mount Eden Avenue and Townsend Avenue at approximately 18:15 (local time) in the Bronx, New York City, NY. According to New York Police Department (NYPD) statement, two masked gunmen on scooters opened fire toward the group. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incident underscores the intermittent incidence of shootings by individuals on motorized scooters in high-crime areas of the Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens. According to the NYPD’s February Crime Statistics, in addition to blatant traffic violations, riders or their passengers have been reported committing shootings, robberies, and other violent acts. While the motive of the attack remains unconfirmed, given the drive-by execution and the fact that 10 shots were fired, this act appears to be targeted amid gang-related disputes and possibly retaliatory motives. Moving forward, the NYPD’s community response team is likely to intensify operations in the form of increased patrols, traffic stops, and motorized scooter confiscations to curb the illegal use of such vehicles, particularly in crime-prone areas in the aforementioned boroughs of NYC.