Current Situation: The Asociacion Trabajadores del Estado (ATE) workers’ union has called for public sectors to hold a nationwide 24-hour strike, alongside protests to be held at government offices and facilities nationwide, on April 3. The strike and associated protests are being called to denounce the planned dismissals of over 70,000 public sector workers. 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on precedent, the strike is expected to be widely adhered to, causing significant disruptions to government and public sector services nationwide. While details of protests remain unknown, spontaneous picketing is likely to occur in the vicinity of national government and public sector company buildings located nationwide and carry a credible potential for localized clashes between security forces and protesters. Security officials are liable to resort to forcible dispersal methods, including the use of water cannons and tear gas, to dismantle disruptive road blockades. Bolstered security can be expected near major government facilities, including the Casa Rosada and the Ministerio de Trabajo, and public locations including the Plaza de Mayo in Buenos Aires city to monitor proceedings, causing significant disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Argentina on April 3 are advised to allot for disruptions to public sector services nationwide due to the labor action and maintain heightened vigilance due to the potential for localized unrest arising from spontaneous picketing, especially in Buenos Aires. 

Current Situation: Educational professionals affiliated with teachers’ unions including Asociacion de Profesores de Segunda Ensenanza (APSE) and Sindicato de Trabajadores de la Educacion Costarricense (SEC), have called for a strike and a protest march in San Jose on April 3. The march will be held from Monumento Leon Cortes to the Ministerio de Educacion Publica at 08:00 (local time). The duration of the strike remains unconfirmed. The labor and protest action have been organized to demand that the government make retroactive cost-of-living payments to teachers, with the government failing to credit the salaries by the scheduled deadline on March 27. 

Assessments & Forecast: Judging by the organizers’ mobilizational capabilities, coupled with the precedent of an associated protest and strike on April 1, the march is likely to draw a turnout in the low-to-mid hundreds. Meanwhile, the strike is likely to be widely adhered to, with disruptions to educational services anticipated on April 3. Given precedent, the march is expected to transpire peacefully. Nonetheless, preemptive security cordons and significant disruptions to vehicular traffic are expected along the route of the march, as seen on April 1. 

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in San Jose on April 3 are advised to allot for disruptions to traffic due to the scheduled protest march during the morning hours and to education services due to the slated strike. 

Current Situation: Authorities extended the ongoing curfew in Ouest Department, including in Port-au-Prince (PauP) from 19:00-06:00 (local time) until April 3. On April 1, shootouts between the police and armed groups were reported near the Palais National and Champs de Mars in PauP.  

Assessments & Forecast: Growing opposition to the CARICOM-proposed Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) from PM Ariel Henry’s allies including Me Andre Michel, Marjorie Michel, and Edmonde Supplice Beauzile, reiterates domestic apprehensions over the interim council, especially amid pre-existing concerns over the “unconstitutionality” of the TPC. Alternative proposals such as entrusting the presidency to a judge of the court of cassation, as mandated in the constitution and implemented following the 2004 coup d’etat will continue to remain popular among the public and opposing sectors, albeit far from being implemented in the coming weeks. Consequently, gangs are expected to capitalize on the delayed implementation of a political solution, in a bid to assert dominance and to show their discontent with the interim council, with government buildings, critical infrastructure to remain the primary targets amid attacks. 

Recommendations: Those continuing to operate or reside in Haiti on April 2 and in the coming days are advised to minimize all outdoor movement, observe the nightly curfew, and avoid the vicinity of all political gatherings. Avoid all travel to Haiti due to the extreme risk of gang violence. 

Current Situation: Per April 1 reports, Chinese Ambassador to Jamaica, Chen Daojiang, amid China’s annual plenary “Two Sessions”, alluded to increasing diplomatic and infrastructural cooperation between the two countries.

Assessments & Forecast: The statement comes amid a 24.8 percent surge in Jamaica’s trade with Beijing, maintaining China as its second-largest trading partner in 2023, highlighting the continued cooperation over critical economic projects between the two countries. The growing lucrativeness of China’s economic footprint in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region is likely since Chinese investments typically do not require monetary repayment, rather they demand control over key infrastructure, notably ports. This is supported by a subsidiary company of People’s Republic of China (PRC), managing the Freeport Container Port in Bahamas and China Merchants Group (CMG) managing Jamaica’s Port of Kingston under a 30-year agreement. With China strengthening bilateral cooperation in the LAC, Washington’s concerns over Beijing’s “expansionist” policies will sustain, buttressed by Commander of US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) amid a security dialogue on February 2 expressing concerns over 22 of the 31 countries in the SOUTHCOM signing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

Current Situation: Two armed suspects shot and killed the Mayor of Churumuco in Michoacan, Guillermo Torres Rojas of the ruling Movimiento Regeneracion Nacional (MORENA) party at a restaurant on Avenida Madera, Molino de Parras in Morelia, Michoacan on March 30. The suspects, who also injured Guillermo’s son, have not been arrested or identified as of writing. 

Assessments & Forecast: The mayor’s homicide was likely in retaliation to the crackdown on organized crime, given that it follows a security operation in Churumuco on January 6 which even provoked protests by residents at the alleged direction of an organized crime group operating in the area as well as the disappearance of 28 firearms from the municipality’s arsenal on January 7. Nevertheless, the incident reflects the high levels of political violence in Michoacan ahead of the June 2024 elections, as supported by the killings of two mayoral candidates in Maravatio, Michoacan on February 26. Given that organized crime groups will continue to attempt to consolidate influence over local politics, likely to protect and expand their operations, attacks against political officials and candidates are expected to recur intermittently. 

Current Situation: Over nine homicides involving shootings were recorded in Irapuato and Celaya, Guanajuato between March 29-30. Shootings were also reported in other areas in Guanajuato like San Roque, El Corcillo, Santa Elena, Salamanca, El Guayabo, and Valtierrilla. 

Assessments & Forecast: Guanajuato recorded 46 out of 357 intentional homicides nationwide between March 24-30, combined with the state recording 28 homicides between March 9-10, the highest number of homicides for any state during the same period, underscoring elevated levels of insecurity. Violence across Guanajuato, especially in Celeya, Leon, Salamanca, and Irapuato, typically stems from the ongoing turf wars, with Cartel de Santa Rosa de Lima (CSRL) seeking to maintain its territorial dominance against Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG)’s incursions. Despite targeted security operations and associated drug busts, supported by the seizer of 30 packages of drugs from a CJNG safehouse in Celeya on March 19, the threat of inter-cartel clashes along with armed confrontation between criminal group members and police is likely to recur. This is supported by over eight armed attacks and cross-firing between cartels and police in Celeya between January 1-Februaary 14.  

Current Situation: On March 29, the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) warned of reports of fragments of malicious code embedded within an immensely popular open-source data compression tool. The thwarted attack involved the embedding of a backdoor by GitHub user ‘Jia Tan,’ to potentially interfere with authentication processes and enable unauthorized remote access to user systems.  

Assessments & Forecast: Although this incident reveals an unprecedented insider threat arising from the role played by a user with verified credentials, it highlights existing vulnerabilities in frameworks surrounding cybersecurity for open-code software supply chain attacks. Moreover, it reiterates the growing trend of hackers employing the ‘Living-Off-The-Land’ technique, which hides malicious code within commonly used third-party software. This is seen in an attempt by ‘Volt Typhoon’ to plant the “KV Botnet” malware on outdated routers, concealing hacking activities within US networks, per January 31 reports. With over 245,000 incidents targeting open-source code detected between October 2022-2023 worldwide, coupled with the impact of the latest incident, businesses and the government across the USA will likely bolster cybersecurity measures of open-codes, including improving maintenance quality, as similar incidents may recur.   

Current Situation: As per reports, renown Venezuelan content creator, Oscar Alejandro Perez Martinez, was detained by Venezuelan authorities at the Simon Bolivar International Airport in Caracas on March 31. According to social media publications by Martinez’s family members, Martinez’s detention is linked to accusations of activities related to terrorism. As of writing, no official statements have been released. 

Assessments & Forecast: Although authorities have not confirmed or denied the accusations against Martinez, unconfirmed reports suggest he is being accused of inciting an attack on a building that allegedly houses the servers for credit and debit cards in Caracas. While Martinez’s content primarily covers travel and Venezuelan culture, he is recorded in one of his videos saying, ‘If a bomb were thrown at that building, the entire national banking system would collapse’, suggesting that this could have acted as the trigger for his arrest. With that, the incident points to the persistent threat of arbitrary arrests targeting individuals perceived by the government as ‘anti-establishment’ or believed to pose a threat to national security. This is supported by recent arrests targeting journalists, activists, and opposition members.