Current Situation: Education sector workers from Federacion Nacional de Docentes Universitarios (Conadu) union, Federacion Universitaria Argentina (FUA), and Consejo Interuniversitario Nacional (CIN) have called for nationwide protests, including in Buenos Aires on April 23. The protests defend public education, demand a freeze on higher education budgets and reject Milei’s adjustment plan. The main protest is scheduled in Buenos Aires at 15:30 (local time) at Congreso de la Nacion, national congress, followed by a march to Plaza de Mayo for an 18:00 rally.  

Assessments & Forecast: Given past mobilizations by Conadu, such as on April 10, the upcoming Buenos Aires protest is likely to significantly disrupt public educational services nationwide. The protest is likely to witness a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid thousands, while other cities will likely see turnouts ranging from low-to-mid hundreds. Protests are expected to transpire peacefully, but authorities will increase security near universities and other protest sites. Traffic disruptions can be expected in the vicinity of the march route in Buenos Aires, as well as road closures and measures to regulate traffic flow along the route from Congreso to Plaza de Mayo. 

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in Argentina, including in Buenos Aires on April 23 are advised to allot for disruptions to educational services. Allot for disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic in the vicinity of Congreso Nacional and Plaza de Mayo in Buenos Aires, and near government buildings and universities nationwide, from the afternoon hours onwards.

Current Situation: The Asociacion Dominicana de Profesores (ADP), the teacher’s union representing the interest of educators across the country, has called for a protest in front of the Ministerio de Educacion de la Republica Dominicana (MINERD), in Santo Domingo, on April 23. As of writing, the exact timing of the protest remains unconfirmed. The protest is taking place to insist on the fulfilment of an agreement signed in July 2023. This agreement includes performance evaluations, enhancements to school infrastructure, the hiring of teaching and administrative staff, a salary raise and other demands by the teacher’s association.  

Assessments & Forecast: The protest is likely to witness turnouts in the low hundreds, based on the group’s mobilization capabilities. Increased security presence is likely at the protest location and traffic disruptions can be expected near the MINERD. Nevertheless, scuffles between protestors and security forces are unlikely, as previous protests by teachers have remained peaceful in the past. 

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in Santo Domingo on April 23 are advised to allot for travel disruptions near the Ministry of Education due to the planned protest. 

Current Situation: On April 22, power outages will resume nationwide after a single day suspension due to the Referendum held on April 21. The planed power cuts are being implemented as part the State of Emergency (SoE) declared by President Daniel Noboa on April 19, due to the ongoing energy crisis amid a drought that has depleted major hydroelectric reservoirs, particularly the Mazar and Paute reservoirs. The Corporacion Nacional De Electricidad (CNEL) national electricity distribution company has announced planned service disruptions April 22. In Guayaquil, power cuts are slated between three and six hours, in 12 time slots during the day. In Quito, power cuts are slated in three time slots from 07:00-14:00; from 10:00-17:30; and, from 12:00-19:00. Additional information regarding the scheduled power service disruptions can be found here. Separately, Empresa Publica Metropolitana de Agua y Saneamiento (Epmaps), Quito’s water utility authority, has issued announced water cuts in three time slots between 07:00-15:00, 10:00-18:00, and 13:00-21:00 in multiple neighborhoods on April 22. No other closures or suspension of public, educational, or medical services have been announced for April 22 as of writing.    

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Ecuador on April 22 are advised to allot for disruptions to power supply due to slated power outages nationwide. Additionally, those operating or residing in Quito are advised to remain cognizant of updates regarding associated disruptions to water supply as well. 

Current Situation: On April 21, authorities announced that voters approved nine security-related questions in the referendum and rejected two questions on economic reforms. Meanwhile, the director of a prison in Portoviejo, Manabi was shot dead by unidentified hitmen in Jipijapa, Manabi on April 21. On the same day, four prisoners were injured in a riot at a prison in Quevedo, Los Rios.  

Assessments & Forecast: The widespread support for the security-related questions can be attributed to the effectiveness of prior security measures, including the State of Emergency (SoE) on January 8, as evidenced by March 8 reports indicating a reduction of violent deaths by 45 percent during the SoE. As such, this will likely embolden President Daniel Noboa to reinforce security measures in provinces with high levels of gang activity, like Guayas and Manabi, as well as prisons, as approved in the referendum. In response to the elevated crackdown, retaliatory attacks targeting security officials can be expected intermittently. Separately, the rejection of international arbitration, which would have removed legal jurisdictional obstacles in arbitrating disputes between state and foreign firms, will likely impact investor confidence.  

Current Situation: Clashes between gangs and police were recorded near Palais National in Port-au-Prince (PauP) on April 21. Similarly, residences were burned down in Lower Delmas, and the State’s Medical University was looted in Petion-Ville, PauP.  

Assessments & Forecast: The persisting violence across PauP will continue unabated due to the sustained opposition by “Vivre Ansanm” gang alliance over Transitional Presidential Council’s formalization on April 12. An increase in attacks against state-owned facilities, as a symbolic act of unrest, remains likely, supported by bandits causing significant infrastructural damage at Presses Nationales d’Haiti’s (National Press) office in PauP on April 18-19. Separately, closure of hospitals, schools, businesses, and unavailability of essential commodities, will continue to trigger economic instability, especially in PauP. This is supported by the growing black market for fuel, selling at nine USD a gallon following attacks at gas stations, alongwith banks limiting withdrawals to 100 USD per day due to the liquidity crisis. With PauP citizens installing metal barricades within their communities per April 21 reports, there is a credible risk of violence due to citizen-led vigilante “Bwa Kale” movement in the coming days.  

Current Situation: According to April 20 reports, residents of the Costa Grande region of Guerrero shot down a drone, allegedly used by the La Familia Michoacana (LFM) criminal group, aimed at setting fires in grasslands across the Tecpan de Galeana and Petatlan municipalities. The incident occurred while locals were extinguishing fires across various grassland areas including Las Mesas, El Porvenir, and El Mameyal.  

Assessments & Forecast: LFM continues to carry out arson attacks aimed at displacing local populations and expanding their territorial control in Guerrero, supported by repeated instances of intimidatory drone attacks, such as the one reported on March 13, when alleged LFM drones dropped explosives on houses and a school in Tecpan de Galeana, and on November 16, targeting a primary school in Acatlan. The targeting of essential agricultural and livestock resources highlights a strategic move to weaken community resistance against cartel encroachments. Going forward, drone attacks targeting mountainous forest areas in Guerrero’s Costa Grande region are likely to persist to maintain control over key trafficking routes, especially as LFM seeks to expand beyond the Tierra Caliente region.  

Current Situation: On April 21, a member of Guadalupe Mora Chavez’s mayoral campaign in Buenavista, Michoacan, was threatened by armed individuals, in Santa Ana Amatlan. According to Mora, the assailants were alleged members of the Los Viagra criminal group. Mora, brother of the leader of a self-defense group, Hipolito Mora, who was killed by criminal elements in June 2023, reaffirmed his intention to prevent criminal groups from gaining financially if elected. 

Assessments & Forecast: Given Mora’s stance against organized crime and his familial connection to a vocal opponent of criminal groups, this move was likely an intimidatory tactic by Los Viagra to consolidate influence over local politics. The incident further reflects high levels of political violence in Michoacan ahead of the June 2024 elections, supported by the murder of the Mayor of Churumuco in Morelia, Michoacan on March 30. Organized crime groups’ attempts to assert political influence will likely increase in parts of western Michoacan amid rivalries between Los Viagra and Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), heightening the threat of attacks on political convoys, campaign events, and private residences of local candidates and their associates.  

Current Situation: At least three individuals were injured after being stabbed by a knife and hit with a bottle on a party yacht docked at the Brooklyn Army Terminal’s Pier 4 in Brooklyn, New York City on April 20. Following the incident, over 1,200 passengers were evacuated from the yacht. No perpetrator has been arrested. 

Assessments & Forecast: Although the incident reportedly escalated during a personal dispute, per preliminary investigations, it nevertheless reflects the potential for such disputes to elevate the threat of spillover violence to bystanders and disrupt services in a public setting. The latter is also supported by the “pushing and shoving” among the guests amid the incident. The incident further highlights the rise in stabbings and slashings across New York City, with a six percent rise in victims due to the said crimes in 2023, compared to 2022, per February 29 reports. Given that the “mass” stabbing was and an isolated occurrence, it does not underscore deteriorating security in New York City, with the overall crime rates reportedly lower in 2023, compared to 2022, per January 4 reports.