Current Situation: On April 5, President Xiomara Castro, through the Cabinet, decreed the ninth extension of the State of Emergency (SoE) for 45 days, in effect until May 19. The SoE has been in force since December 6, 2022, to enable increased legal capacities, including arrests without court orders, to combat organized crime. 

Assessments & Forecast: With March 12 reports indicating a 17 percent decline in homicides in 2023, compared to 2022, the extension of the ongoing SoE reiterates the apparent success in reducing gang violence through the government’s hardline stance. This is supported by at least 19 raids conducted by the Public Ministry and police to dismantle extortion cells of the Barrio 18 gang across multiple locations nationwide, including Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, on April 3. Regardless, the homicide rate of 31.3 per 100,000 inhabitants, among the highest in Central America, further highlights the persisting threat of violent crimes prevalent nationwide. As such, despite concerns by intergovernmental agencies such as the UN of alleged human rights violations during the SoE, increased security powers are expected to remain in place to contain the threat to public security and regular business activity. 

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Honduras until May 19 are advised to avoid non-essential travel amid the ongoing state of emergency due to security operations.

Current Situation: On April 4, two gunmen aboard a motorbike attacked a local pharmacy on Avenida Ayacucho in Roque Saenz Pena, Rosario, Santa Fe. Separately, on April 3, two criminals engaged in an arson attack targeting the headquarters of the Sindicato de la Carne Rosario meat workers’ union on Avenida Fausta in Saladillo Sud, Rosario. 

Assessments & Forecast: The latest incidents highlight the persisting insecurity due to violence by local drug-related gangs amid targeted attacks against commercial enterprises, possibly related to extortion. The city’s insecurity is highlighted by its homicide rates which were three times the national average in 2023. Separately, the intimidatory attacks were likely in response to intensified security measures and transfer of leaders of criminal groups, especially Los Monos, in Santa Fe prisons in recent months as well as bolstered deployment of federal security measures and personnel on March 14 to combat violent crime in Rosario. With similar intimidatory drive-by shootings or low-to-medium intensity attacks targeting government and commercial facilities expected to persist in the near-to-medium term, checkpoints along motorways and militarized-police patrols in public spaces are expected to remain in place.

Current Situation: On April 4-5, alleged members of the Estado Mayor Central-Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (EMC-FARC) dissident group carried out at least five shooting and explosive attacks in parts of Cauca and Valle del Cauca. On April 4, unidentified suspects aboard a motorcycle threw a grenade at the military headquarters in Tumaco, Narino, leaving a soldier injured. 

Assessments & Forecast: The targeted nature of the alleged EMC-FARC-led attacks aligns with the surfacing of March 19 reports of the group’s “Plan Pistola” aimed at targeting military establishments. Plan Pistola was likely triggered by the government’s suspension of the bilateral ceasefire with EMC-FARC in Narino, Cauca, and Valle del Cauca on March 17, after the group’s alleged involvement in the killing of a community leader in Toribio on March 16. This prompted the military to resume operations against the group in the three departments on March 20. Thus, the potential for retaliatory attacks manifesting as drive-by shootings and low-to-medium intensity IEDs against security units, including patrol vehicles, army bases, police stations, and checkpoints, remains elevated, especially in the rural and semi-urban areas of said departments. 

Current Situation: According to April 3 reports, the 10th Front of the Segunda Marquetalia-Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Segunda Marquetalia (SM-FARC) dissident guerilla group declared a war against Frente Domingo Lain Saenz division of Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional (ELN) in the Arauca department. 

Assessments & Forecast: The recent event indicates continuing rivalry of 10th Front of SM-FARC and ELN in Arauca over access to the drug trade across Venezuelan border areas. The rivalry is also seen in targeted attacks on community leaders who allegedly served the ELN, such as the killing of Graciel Mendoza, a peasant leader by SM-FARC members in La Arabia, Tame municipality, Arauca on March 28. With this, the killing of a peasant by an explosive set up in civilian residences by SM-FARC, in La Arabia on March 28, highlights growing insecurity in the region. Given SM-FARC declaration of war and the affirmation by the ELN to engage in war against SM-FARC dissidents, per April 5 reports, armed confrontations, specifically in rural and semi-urban areas of Fortul, Saravena, and Tame, are likely in the near-to-medium term.

Current Situation: A military operation against illegal mining led to clashes with armed suspects, leaving one suspect dead and seven arrested along the banks of Biguno river in San Jose de Guayusa,  Orellana province on April 3. Authorities also seized several firearms during the operation and indicated that the armed group involved in the clashes was previously responsible for an attack on a military patrol that left one officer dead in Sucumbios on March 22.

Assessments & Forecast: The security operation reflects authorities’ ongoing attempts to crackdown on illegal mining, primarily gold, in Ecuador’s Amazonian provinces, including Orellana, Loja and Napo. A police operation against illegal mining led to the arrest of five suspects in Catamayo, Loja on April 4. These incidents reiterate the significant expansion of illegal gold mining due to the profitability of this activity and the concurrent increase in the presence of organized crime groups in Ecuador in recent years. Given groups such as Los Lobos in Napo and Los Choneros in Sucumbios already have an established presence, the incident suggests that organized crime groups are potentially expanding mining operations in Orellana.

Current Situation: On April 5, Ecuadorian police forcibly entered the Mexican embassy in Quito during the night hours (local time) to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas. This followed the Mexican government granting Glas, who had been convicted twice for corruption, political asylum in the Embassy on March 5. In response to the raid, Mexico suspended diplomatic relations with Ecuador.  

Assessments & Forecast: The storming of the Embassy marks a notable deterioration of bilateral ties between Quito and Mexico City. This comes after Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s criticism of the 2023 presidential polls in Ecuador on April 4, during which he commented on the role of candidate Fernando Villavencio’s assassination in the polls, following which Quito declared the Mexican ambassador “persona non grata”. With Mexico suspending diplomatic relations, bilateral ties are likely to remain strained in the near term, in turn potentially prompt the closure of respective embassies and consulates in the two countries. While a suspension of trade between the two has not been announced as of writing, the likelihood of stricter measures cannot be ruled out should heightened tensions persist.

Current Situation: On April 3, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro promulgated a law for the ‘defense of Essequibo’, thereby formalizing the results of the December 2023 non-binding referendum regarding its claim to the territory, disputed with Guyana. Maduro also accused the USA of constructing secret military bases in Essequibo. 

Assessments & Forecast: The signing of the law aligns with an incremental escalation of territorial tensions between Georgetown and Caracas, following Venezuela’s Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino on February 9 announcing that it will conduct a “proportional, forceful” operation against Guyana-proposed oil drilling in Essequibo. This is despite the agreement reached to refrain from escalating the conflict at the December 14 meeting between Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali. Notwithstanding reports of increased Venezuelan army presence at locations bordering Essequibo as of February 9, a military escalation remains unlikely in the near term. This is because the military build-up near Essequibo appears to be Caracas’ intimidatory move, aimed at bolstering domestic support for Maduro ahead of the July 28 elections. Washington is expected to continue providing military aid to Georgetown, likely to deter potential Venezuelan aggression.

Current Situation: According to April 4 reports, criminals attacked multiple currency exchange offices with molotov cocktails and gasoline in different areas in Tijuana, Baja California on April 1, March 22, 29, and 31. Six similar arson attacks against exchange offices were recorded between March-April 4 in Tijuana.  

Assessments & Forecast: With Tijuana reporting a 4.3 percent increase in extortion attempts against businesses in 2023 as compared to 2022, combined with arson attacks against four “smoke houses” in Tijuana by criminals demanding “el piso” (floor fee) in mid-February, the recent incidents reiterate the high threat of cartels extorting small-to-mediums businesses. Based on the prevalent inter-cartel rivalry over drug-trafficking routes in Tijuana between Cartel de Sinaloa (CDS) and Cartel Arellano Felix (CAF), their involvement in the arson attacks cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, firefighters claimed that over a dozen arson cases were unreported between March and April 4, indicating that the same is likely due to fear of retaliatory attacks targeting business owners by organized criminal groups. The risk of similar extortion attacks is expected to persist in commercial areas of Tijuana like Camino Verde, Zona Centro, and Zona Rio.