Current Situation: The Consejo Nacional de Salud (CONASA), a government body in Bolivia which oversees public health policies and represents healthcare professionals, has announced a nationwide 72-hour strike from April 9-11. The strike aims to protest mandatory retirement at the age of 65. According to CONASA, during these days, only emergency services will be available, and all outpatient consultations and scheduled surgeries will be postponed.  

Assessments & Forecast: Based on the union’s mobilizational capabilities, evidenced by similar strikes on April 3, March 13 and February 20, the slated labor action is likely to be widely adhered across all public hospitals nationwide. While it is unclear from CONASA’s announcement whether the strike will also impact healthcare personnel from private hospitals, the same cannot be ruled out. Consequently, significant disruptions to healthcare services remain likely on April 9-11. This is supported by several hospitals facing staff shortages during a previous 48-hour strike on April 3-4 specifically in Cochabamba, Santa Cruz and La Paz. That said, emergency services are expected to operate normally. The likelihood of unrest amid spontaneous protests remains low.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in Bolivia on April 9-11 are advised to allot for disruptions to medical services due to the slated nationwide strike by healthcare professionals.

Current Situation: Multiple workers’ unions, including the Federacion Colombiana de Educadores (FECODE) and the Central Unitaria de Trabajadores (CUT), have called for a protest march in Bogota on April 9. Protesters will gather at Parque Nacional at 09:00 (local time) and march towards Plaza de Bolivar, in downtown Bogota. The demonstrations are being held to commemorate Day of the Victims and express support for reforms proposed under the President Gustavo Petro-led government 

Assessments & Forecast: Based on similar protests in favor of Petro’s reforms, including a march on September 27, 2023, the slated demonstration is likely to witness turnouts in the mid-to-high thousands. Based on precedent, the protests are expected to transpire largely peacefully, without any instances of unrest. Regardless, authorities are expected to bolster security in the vicinity of the aforementioned protest locations, especially near the Plaza de Bolivar and surrounding government buildings, to monitor proceedings and regulate traffic. Given this, disruptions to vehicular and pedestrian traffic can be anticipated in the vicinity of the aforementioned locations and thoroughfares during the morning hours.  

Recommendations: Those residing or operating in Bogota on April 9 are advised to allot for disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic in the vicinity of protest locations from the morning hours onwards.

Current Situation: The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a winter storm warning for parts of eastern Wyoming until the morning hours (local time) of April 8. Meanwhile, a flood warning has been issued for the Passaic River in New Jersey until further notice as of April 8. The NWS has also warned of severe thunderstorms, causing heavy rain and winds, in parts of Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley between April 8-9, while critical fire weather conditions have been warned to persist in parts of New Mexico and Texas on April 8. Power outages are ongoing for over 65,000 customers in Colorado after a windstorm between April 6-7.  

Recommendations: Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas of the USA on April 8-9 are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks.

Current Situation: On April 5, Argentinian President Javier Milie and the United States Southern Command General, Laura Richardson announced the development of a joint integrated naval base in Argentina’s Ushuaia City, Tierra del Fuego province, Patagonian region. Milei stated that “the West is at risk”. 

Assessments & Forecast:  Richardson’s third visit to Argentina since April 21, 2023, along with the USA’s defense funding exceeding 625 million USD in 2023 indicates the strengthening of bilateral strategic defense ties, especially since Milie took office in December 2023. This is also buttressed by US transferring C-130H Hercules aircrafts, valued at 34 million USD to the Argentine Air Force on April 5. The construction of the naval base in Patagonia, is notable due to its strategic proximity to Antartica, offering economic opportunities for scientific research, submarine docking, and freight handling. Further, Argentinian concerns over China’s presence in Patagonia, highlighted by recurring reports, similar to March 8, regarding Chinese-flagged fishing vessels in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off Patagonia’s coasts, suggest that the naval base likely aims to counter the perceived Chinese incursion in its maritime regions.

Current Situation: An arson attack occurred in Perquenco, La Araucania, where two houses were robbed and set on fire by armed assailants individuals on April 7. The Weichan Auka Mapu (WAM) radical Mapuche group claimed responsibility for the attack and left behind pamphlets at the scene demanding the release of imprisoned Mapuche individuals Guillermo Nirripil Cheuquepan and Jose Pinchunhuala Huentenao. 

Assessments & Forecast: The incident underscores the continued risk of arson attacks by Mapuche groups in Perquenco, considering this is the second such attack following an April 4 incident targeting a bus carrying laborers. Though arson attacks by Mapuche have been sporadic and infrequent from late 2023 to early 2024, possibly due to the lack of legislative changes or arrests of Mapuche leaders, recent incidents like the consecutive attacks on March 18-19 in Vilcun and Freire, La Araucania, indicate a slight resurgence of attacks in the region. This is likely connected to the March 13 murder conviction of Mapuche member Luis Tranamil Nahuel and exacerbated by calls for the release of other Mapuche prisoners. Given this, similar intimidatory attacks are likely to recur intermittently regionwide.

Current Situation: On April 7, security footage was revealed of an attempted robbery at a residential building in Chico Norte, Chapinero, Bogota that occurred on March 23. It reveals that eight armed men were involved in the incident, contradicting initial reports of three assailants. Additionally, the videos show the assailants forcefully entering the building, incapacitating the security guard, and assaulting a resident before after alarms sounded.  

Assessments & Forecast: The incident highlights the persistent threat of residential robberies in Bogota. This is supported by recent police reports indicating that from January to February, 1,044 robberies in residences were reported across Bogota. The involvement of eight suspects suggests that the robbery was likely carried out by a local criminal group, possibly specializing in home robberies. Given that this incident occurred in an upscale neighborhood like Chico Norte, it will likely negatively impact the perceived safety in the area as well as surrounding areas including Santa Barbara, Usaquen where a violent home robbery was reported on March 30. Consequently, the risk of home robberies will likely persist in the aforementioned areas in the near-to-medium term.

Current Situation: On April 7, multiple confrontations were reported between the ‘Dagoberto Ramos’ substructure of the Estado Mayor Central-Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (EMC-FARC) dissident group and military in the Toribio municipality, Cauca. Concurrently, Ivan Mordisco, who leads the EMC-FARC issued a statement, calling on the national government to reinstate the ceasefire agreement that had been suspended since March 17. 

Assessments & Forecast: The sustained clashes between EMC-FARC and the military are consistent with the ongoing execution of the FARC-plotted ‘Plan Pistola’, which seeks to attack military installations and infrastructure across EMC-FARC’s strongholds in southwestern Colombia. This is supported by at least five EMC-FARC-led shooting and explosive attacks in Cauca and Valle del Cauca on April 4-5. Mordisco’s call for a reinstatement of the suspended ceasefire and simultaneous declaration to continue their hostilities against the military as of April 7, plausibly indicates the group’s attempt to gain leverage in a potential resumption of the Paz Total talks. This was previously evidenced during a similar ‘Plan Pistola’ implemented in August 2023, ahead of their first round of talks in October 2023. 

Current Situation: Per April 7 reports, Mexico’s Secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores (SRE) announced the indefinite closure of its embassy in Quito and its consular services, following the April 5 storming of the Mexican embassy by Ecuadorian police to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas. Nicaragua announced the severing of ties with Ecuador, while Bolivia summoned its ambassador from Quito. Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina have also denounced Ecuador’ actions. 

Assessments & Forecast: The developments are likely to affect consular services in the coming days, particularly for Mexican citizens residing and operating in Ecuador. Although the Mexican government has informed that Mexican citizens in Ecuador can use Sistema de Registro para Mexicanos en el Exterior (SIRME) for consular assistance, delays in processing are expected to persist. Meanwhile, Mexico pausing Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks with Quito on April 7 is likely to impact Ecuador’s economic prospects, potentially hindering its aspirations for membership in the Pacific Alliance. Strained relations with Bolivia and condemnation from Colombia could plausibly impact, although to a limited extent, ongoing efforts to bolster security to tackle gang violence through the Andean security network.