The following report reviews current events in the Europe and the Americas region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. 

Americas

• Haiti: Five suspected for involvement in former President’s assassination, per August 3 reports; likely attempt to obstruct investigation
• Mexico: LP gas distributors on indefinite national strike, including in Mexico City, since August 3; maintain heightened vigilance
• USA: Three people injured in workplace shooting incident outside Nashville, TN on August 3; likely related to professional dispute

Europe

• Estonia & Russia: Moscow declares Estonian diplomat persona non grata in tit-for-tat move on August 3; reflects tensions with NATO members
• France: Healthcare workers to stage nationwide protests, including in Paris, on August 5; maintain heightened vigilance
• Ukraine: Head of Ukraine-based Belarusian organization found dead in Kyiv on August 3; investigations, international criticism likely

Americas: Countries revise domestic restrictions as vaccination drives continue on August 4; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

In Brazil, state authorities maintained and adjusted COVID-19 restrictions on August 3. In Bahia, officials shortened the nightly curfew to 01:00-05:00. In Ceara, most schools have been allowed to reopen. In Parana, the nightly curfew was shortened to 23:59-05:00. In the Dominican Republic, President Luis Abinader signed a decree ending the curfew in La Altagracia province and the National District effective on August 9 at 05:00. In the USA, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced on August 3 that individuals will need to provide proof of COVID-19 vaccination to enter indoor dining establishments, theaters, entertainment centers, and gyms beginning on September 1. In Kansas, state authorities have updated COVID-19 entry restrictions. A full list of countries in which quarantine is mandated upon return to Kansas can be found here. In Louisiana, state authorities reimposed a mandatory face mask order for individuals aged 5 and older in public places. Also, the CDC announced on August 2 that they have extended an order that allows for the expulsion of migrants due to COVID-19 risk.

Those operating or residing in the Americas on August 4 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines and health procedures. 

Americas: Floods forecast for USA as response work continues in Trinidad & Tobago as of August 4; remain abreast of authorities’ updates

The US National Weather Service (NWS) has forecast heavy rains and flash floods along the southwestern regions including central Colorado, central and northeastern New Mexico, and southern Wyoming from August 4-6. The NWS has also issued an ‘Excessive Heat’ warning for the Southwest Deserts through August 5, while heat advisories are in effect for August 4 across the Pacific Northwest. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has also forecast critical fire weather, the second-highest in a five-tier system, for northwest Nevada on August 5. Separately, flash floods have been recorded in the northwestern regions of Trinidad & Tobago as of August 3, affecting most thoroughfares from Maraval to Port of Spain. Although the Trinidad & Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) has forecast a low-to-medium chance of isolated thunderstorms in the western regions for August 4, disruptions caused by the flash floods and heavy rains on August 3 are to continue as emergency response units work to repair damages.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned regions in the Americas on August 4 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks and allot for disruptions to travel and public services.

Guatemala: Indigenous group calls for nationwide strike demanding Giammattei’s resignation on August 5-6; maintain heightened vigilance

The Autoridades Indigenas Ancestrales de Ixumulew, an indigenous group, has called for a multisectoral nationwide strike from 06:00 (local time) on August 5 until 18:00 on August 6. The strike is called to demand the resignation of President Alejandro Giammattei and the Attorney General over the alleged mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic response and corruption allegations. At the time of writing, details on associated protests remain unconfirmed.

Based on recent precedent and given the elevated anti-government sentiments, several labor and civil society groups are expected to support the strike. As seen on July 30, associated protests are expected, including in Guatemala City, and are liable to draw turnouts in the low thousands. Protests carry a heightened potential for major unrest, especially in the capital, in the form of clashes between protestors and the police. In the event of widespread violent unrest, the police are highly likely to use forcible dispersal methods and conduct mass arrests. A bolstered security is expected near potential protest sites such as public squares, markets, and key government buildings on the aforementioned dates.

Those operating or residing in Guatemala on August 5 and 6 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance due to the slated labor action and the associated risk of unrest at possible protests.

Mexico: LP gas distributors on indefinite national strike, including in Mexico City, since August 3; maintain heightened vigilance

According to reports, liquefied petroleum (LP) gas distributors began an indefinite national strike, including in Mexico City on August 3. The strike has caused hundreds of homemakers, transporters, and businesses that use gas to run out of fuel. The work stoppage was called by small gas companies that make up the Gremio Gasero Nacional de Mexico, after the federal government imposed price controls on the fuel on August 1.

As LP is used by around 70-80 percent of the population, being the main fuel for daily life, including for cooking and heating water, the strike against the announced price controls will most likely lead to severe shortages, as the largest private gas distributors may refuse to operate under government-imposed profit margins. Although no related demonstrations have been announced as of writing, associated protests are likely to be held in the vicinity of government buildings and urban centers in major cities. Considering the strike’s sensitive nature, the demonstrations carry the potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police. As such, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed.

Those operating or residing in Mexico on August 4 and the coming weeks are advised to maintain heightened vigilance in the vicinity of associated demonstrations and allot for disruptions to gas services due to the slated nationwide strike.

USA: Protest against qualified immunity slated at 250 Broadway in New York City, NY at 11:00 (local time) on August 5; allot for disruptions

According to reports, a protest is slated to take place at 250 Broadway in New York City, NY, at 11:00 (local time) on August 5. The rally is organized by the grassroots campaign End QI NY to demand that Senate majority leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins back the bill to abolish qualified immunity for police.

Based on the mobilization capabilities of the group involved, the demonstration is expected to witness a turnout ranging in the high-dozens to low-hundreds, with additional anti-police groups potentially joining the rally. The protest is expected to transpire largely peacefully, although the potential for isolated scuffles remains. As such, a bolstered security presence can be expected in the vicinity of 250 Broadway to monitor proceedings, as well as ensure compliance with COVID-19 social distancing guidelines. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected in the vicinity of 250 Broadway from the morning hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in New York City on August 5 are advised to allot for disruptions to travel in the vicinity of 250 Broadway from the morning hours onwards due to the planned protest.

Haiti: Five suspected for involvement in former President’s assassination, per August 3 reports; likely attempt to obstruct investigation

According to August 3 reports, Port-au-Prince’s State Attorney Claude Bed-Ford issued arrest warrants to five individuals on July 12 for their alleged involvement in former President Jovenel Moise’s assassination. The suspects include two religious leaders; Line Balthazar, president of the ruling Parti Haitien Tet Kale (PHTK); former Prime Minister Paul Denis; and a businessman. With this, the total number of suspects in Moise’s assassination totals 44. Balthazar had previously opposed Moise’s constitutional referendum project in April 2021.

That the 44 suspects include members who are not directly related to the assassination, and that a majority of such secondary suspects have previously expressed their opposition to Moise, it is likely that they are being detained for political reasons in an attempt to obstruct the actual investigations. Additionally, with Balthazar being suspected for the assassination, political infighting over the leadership of the ruling PHTK party can be expected in the coming days. With the above developments, procedural delays to the investigation are likely to continue until the legislative elections, scheduled for September.

USA: Three people injured in workplace shooting incident outside Nashville, TN on August 3; likely related to professional dispute

Three individuals were injured in a workplace shooting incident at a dental company’s warehouse in Antioch, TN, located approximately 19 km southeast of downtown Nashville, TN on August 3. According to reports, the 22-year-old perpetrator was an employee of the company and engaged in a shootout with security guards through the doors of the facility. The perpetrator was killed by the police shortly following the incident. The Metro Nashville Police Department (MNPD) and Tennessee Bureau of Investigation (TBI) have not confirmed a motive and are conducting an investigation as of writing.

Although an investigation is ongoing into the shooting incident, given that the perpetrator was an employee of the company, the shooting is liable to have been related to a workplace dispute and any extremist links remain highly unlikely. Regardless, following workplace shooting incidents in Indiana in April and California in May, the aforementioned incident highlights the continuing threat of shootings perpetrated by disgruntled employees in workplaces nationwide. Intermittent bouts of similar workplace incidents are expected to recur, prompting increased security protocols at workplaces and dialogue on gun-control measures.

Europe: Authorities modify country risk levels as COVID-19 vaccination drives continue on August 4; remain cognizant of authorities’ updates

In Bulgaria, authorities amended the list of countries classified as red, orange, and green zones according to their COVID-19 situations as of August 4. In Cyprus, travelers must take a COVID-19 PCR or rapid antigen test every seven days after arrival. Fully vaccinated persons and those who have recovered from the virus in the past six months are exempt. In France, authorities amended the list of countries classified as red, orange, or green zones according to their COVID-19 situations as of August 3. In Germany, health officials will start offering COVID-19 booster shots from September. In Montenegro, authorities have extended the existing nationwide domestic restrictions until at least August 20. In Norway, authorities in the Stavanger municipality are offering free COVID-19 tests to facilitate travel as of August 4. In Spain, health officials in Catalonia have announced plans to administer COVID-19 vaccines to minors in the age group of 12-15 years, as per August 3 reports. In the UK, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced that almost all restrictions will be lifted in Scotland from August 9.

Those operating or residing in Europe on August 4 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ instructions regarding quarantines, travel restrictions, and health procedures.  

Europe: Inclement weather conditions reported regionwide, as authorities issue warnings on August 4; remain cognizant of updates

Meteoalarm, Europe’s regional weather agency, has issued red and orange alerts, the highest and second-highest in a four-tier system, for multiple countries regionwide through August 6. In Italy, the red alert in Sicily for high temperatures, and orange alerts in Basilicata, Liguria, Puglia, and Calabria are maintained, whereas an orange warning for thunderstorms and rainfall is in effect in Lombardia, Veneto, Piemonte, and Trentino Alto Adige. An orange alert for high temperatures is also in effect for most of southern and eastern Serbia. In Spain, severe thunderstorm activity is expected in Barcelona and Girona through at least August 5. In Austria, an orange warning for rainfall is in effect in Tyrol through at least August 5. Reports also indicate that the emergency orders in most of the eastern regions in Russia remain, including in Yakutia, as ongoing wildfires have continued to spread.

Those operating or residing in the aforementioned areas in Europe on August 4 and in the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of authorities’ updates regarding weather-related risks and allot for disruptions to travel and services.

France: Flight operations to remain suspended at Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne Airport, Aulnat until August 31; re-confirm itineraries

Airport authorities have confirmed that flight operations at Aeroport de Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne (CFA) in Aulnat will remain suspended until August 31 due to ongoing runway repairs. However, public access to the terminal will be possible during the day. The airport, serving as the main airport for the Auvergne region, is located 6.7 kms east of the city of Clermont-Ferrand.

Those intending to travel via Aeroport de Clermont-Ferrand Auvergne (CFA) in Aulnat are advised to reconfirm itineraries due to the suspension of flights until August 31.

France: Healthcare workers to stage nationwide protests, including in Paris, on August 5; maintain heightened vigilance

According to reports, nationwide protests by health workers are slated to take place on August 5 amid the Constitutional Council’s ruling on the use of the COVID-19 vaccination health pass and the mandate on vaccination for health workers. While protest locations in Paris remain unconfirmed as of writing, demonstrations can be expected at Place de la Bastille and Place du Palais Royal from the morning hours (local time). Protests will also be held outside healthcare facilities in Lyon and Marseille.

Given precedent, the slated demonstrations are likely to draw a turnout ranging in the low-to-mid thousands in Paris, while protests in other major urban centers are likely to draw a turnout ranging in the high hundreds-to-low thousands. The protests carry an elevated potential to turn violent, with clashes between protesters and police likely, with police expected to resort to forcible dispersal measures in the event of widespread unrest. As such, bolstered security enforcement is anticipated to monitor proceedings. Significant disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic can be expected in the vicinity of the protest locations from the morning hours onward.

Those operating or residing in France on August 5 are advised to maintain heightened vigilance and allot for disruptions in the vicinity of protest locations due to the elevated potential for unrest.

Greece: Hundreds evacuate as wildfires continue near Athens amid intense heatwave on August 4; remain cognizant of updates

Reports indicate that wildfires continue to burn near Athens, prompting hundreds to evacuate near the forest areas north of the city. Road closures and railway disruptions have been recorded as the heatwave continues on August 4. Residences in Varympompi, a northern suburb of Athens, and the nearby neighborhood of Adames have been evacuated. Evacuation orders are also in place in Tatoi and Thrakomakedones. The Greek National Highway, which connects Athens and Lamia, is closed to traffic. Traffic movement is also restricted in Tatoiou from Kymi Avenue to Erythreas Street, Erythrea from the bridge of Varybombi, and Tatoiou from Parnithos Street. Entry to Acropolis and other tourist sites in Athens was suspended on August 3. In addition, local authorities have declared a State of Emergency in Evia, central Greece as wildfires continue to burn in the region. Power outages have also been reported across the region. Meanwhile, Greece’s national weather agency, the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS), has issued red and orange heatwave alerts in multiple regions until August 6. Further details on the regions affected can be found here.

Those operating or residing in Athens and the aforementioned regions in Greece on August 4 and the coming days are advised to remain cognizant of local authorities’ alerts regarding weather-related risks.

UK: Protest to take place outside Indian High Commission in London at 13:00 (local time) on August 5; maintain vigilance

According to reports, activists associated with the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front UK (JKLF UK) will stage a protest at 13:00 (local time) outside the Indian High Commission in London on August 5. Protesters will be demonstrating against the alleged human rights violations by Indian authorities in the territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The group has held similar demonstrations in recent years.

Based on precedent and the mobilization capacity of the group involved, the demonstration is expected to witness turnouts in the mid-to-high hundreds. Given the location of the protest, a bolstered security presence is expected to be deployed. Judging by the heightened sentiments over the issue, the demonstration carries a latent potential for unrest in the form of clashes between protesters and police officers. Security officials are liable to use forcible methods of dispersal, including mass arrests, in the event of widespread unrest. Disruptions to pedestrian and vehicular traffic are anticipated in the vicinity of the Indian High Commission from the afternoon hours onwards.

Those operating or residing in London on August 5 are advised to maintain vigilance due to the potential for unrest arising from the above-slated demonstration and allot for disruptions to travel from the afternoon hours onwards.

Estonia & Russia: Moscow declares Estonian diplomat persona non grata in tit-for-tat move on August 3; reflects tensions with NATO members

Reports indicate that the Russian Foreign Ministry has declared an Estonian diplomat persona non grata in retaliation for Tallinn’s response over espionage accusations on August 3. The development follows Estonia’s move to expel a Russian diplomat on July 15 after authorities detained the Estonian Consul to St. Petersburg, Mart Latte, for allegedly carrying out espionage operations in Russia. Tallinn claimed the allegations were baseless and Latte was the victim of a “set-up”. The Russian Foreign Ministry warned Estonian authorities against further escalation of the situation.

Judging by similar moves adopted by Russia in the past, the expulsion was largely expected and indicates Moscow’s continued attempts to accuse Western countries of conducting alleged espionage operations. As such, the development is likely to escalate tensions between Moscow and Tallinn, with Estonia likely to respond with the expulsion of Russian diplomats in the near term. Any reciprocal measure taken by Estonia is likely to be supported by NATO members and possibly lead to similar expulsions by members of the EU, further deteriorating the already strained ties between Moscow and the bloc.

Germany: Police operations continue after three injured in blowgun attack in Cologne on August 3; highlights threat from traditional weapons

Police reports indicate that three individuals were injured in a suspected blowgun attack near Barbarossaplatz in Cologne, on August 2. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the blowgun was shot from the window of a neighboring house in the area. The attack has prompted security agencies to expedite their investigation and launch a manhunt, as the officials look to gather cyber-surveillance and witness reports in the Neustadt-Sud district in Cologne.

Despite the likelihood of the above attack being an isolated incident, it highlights the threat associated with the public use of traditional ranged weapons, such as blowguns, that are conventionally used for sports and recreational activities. Given that the possession and use of blowguns are legal in Germany, the incident is likely to prompt the state and federal authorities to initiate legislative debates over the enactment of strict licensing measures regulating the public use of fatal ranged weapons. The police operations are likely to continue, as the latent threat to public safety in Cologne and the surrounding areas remains, given that the assailant is still at large.

Sweden: Three wounded in multiple shootings in Kristianstad, Scania County on August 3; reiterates uptick in gun violence

Police sources indicate that multiple shootings took place in Kristianstad, a city in south Scania County, and its surrounding areas. Three individuals were injured. Further, police claim that shots were also heard from the Nasby district in northern Kristianstad. As of writing, investigations are ongoing. In 2020, Sweden recorded approximately 360 shooting incidents, 47 deaths, and 117 injuries. Additionally, the country recorded the highest number of fatal shootings across Europe in 2018.

The incident reiterates the heightened threat of gun violence in Sweden, with the risk of spillover violence targeting bystanders being high. While the motives of the shootings are unconfirmed at this time, the possibility of them being linked to inter-gang violence remains, given that similar cases have occurred previously. The above is supported by another shooting carried out by a criminal gang outside a housing estate in Stockholm on July 17. Given that multiple shootings were recorded in one day in Kristianstad and the possibility of criminal gangs being involved, enhanced police presence in Nasby, Kristianstad, and the surrounding areas are likely in the near term.

Ukraine: Head of Ukraine-based Belarusian organization found dead in Kyiv on August 3; investigations, international criticism likely

The head of the Belarusian House in Ukraine, a Kyiv-based NGO known to facilitate the migration process for Belarusians attempting to flee the country, was found dead in the Sviatoshynsyi district of Kyiv after being reported missing on August 3. A Netherlands-based investigative agency, known to have launched several investigations in Russia, has indicated the alleged involvement of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in the incident. Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities have initiated criminal proceedings for “intentional murder,” as the United Nations and EU delegates urged Ukraine to conduct thorough investigations.

The reported indications of intentional murder of a prominent activist and the FSB’s involvement are expected to further deteriorate Ukraine and the EU’s already tense relations with Belarus and Russia. That the deceased was reportedly under surveillance for participating in the 2020 anti-government protests in Belarus reiterates Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s clampdown on dissent, with the incident reiterating the strong ties between Minsk and Moscow. With this, Belarus and Russia are likely to jointly clamp down on anti-government entities residing in Europe, drawing wider criticism from the international community.

August 5   

• Croatia: Victory & Homeland Thanksgiving Day   

August 6   

• Bolivia: National Day   
• El Salvador: Celebracion del Divino Salvador del Mundo    
• Jamaica: Independence Day     

August 7    

• Colombia: Battle of Boyaca Day   

August 8    

• Ecuador: National Day Holiday   

August 9  

• Ecuador: National Day Holiday  
• Suriname: Indigenous People’s Day 

August 10 

• Nicaragua: Dejada de Santo Domingo de Guzman 
• Romania: Protest in Bucharest 

August 13 

• Germany: Strike in Frankfurt 

August 15

• Regionwide: Assumption Day

August 16

• Colombia, Holy See, Monaco, Spain: Assumption Day
• Dominican Republic: Restoration Day