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Saudi statements

• According to Saudi Arabia’s official news agency, the Royal Saudi Air Defense (RSAD) intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Yemen-based Houthis towards Riyadh during the evening hours of February 27.  
• The Saudi authorities announced that a house in an unspecified area of Riyadh sustained material damage due to “falling debris” from the downed ballistic missile, without causing casualties. 
• The official news agency also reported that during the same time, the RSAD downed six Houthi-launched explosive-laden unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in a “deliberate” and “systematic” attempt “to target civilian objects in the “southern region, Jazan and [Asir Province’s] Khamis Mushayt”.
• Video material released by several news outlets purportedly depicts multiple interceptions by Saudi aerial defense missiles.   
• At the time of writing, flight operations at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport have resumed.

Houthi claim

• On February 28, the Houthi military spokesperson claimed responsibility for the attacks. He stated that the group conducted the attack against Riyadh using a “Zulfiqar” ballistic missile and 15 combat UAVs, including nine “Samad 3” UAVs, against “sensitive locations” in Riyadh. 
• The Houthis also claimed to have conducted six “Qasef-2k” UAV attacks against “military sites” in Asir province’s Abha and Khamis Mushayt. 
• The spokesperson also stated Houthi operations “are continuing and will expand more and more as long as the aggression and siege on our country continues.” He further warned civilians to avoid areas in the vicinity of military sites and airfields including sites that “may be used for military purposes” as they constitute targets for future Houthi attacks.

1. The aerial attack targeting Riyadh comes amid the Houthis’ bolstered efforts to conduct cross-border attacks against sensitive infrastructure in Saudi Arabia over recent weeks. This is evidenced by approximately 14 cross-border attacks towards Saudi Arabia that were either claimed by the Houthis or reported by Saudi authorities since February 10. For instance, on February 15, the Houthis claimed to have conducted UAV attacks against Jeddah’s King Abdulaziz International Airport and Asir’s Abha International Airport. Prior to this, on February 10, the Houthis claimed a UAV attack against Asir’s Abha International Airport, which caused a fire to a civilian aircraft. Nonetheless, Houthi-claimed attacks against Riyadh did not occur during this latest period of escalation. This is despite the fact that Houthi forces have demonstrated their ability to launch ballistic missiles and explosive-laden UAVs towards Riyadh in the past. Against this background, the latest attack is notable as it highlights the Houthis’ motive and capability to target the Saudi capital. In the context of the spate of attacks reported since February 10, this constitutes a Houthi escalation in the range and strategic importance of targets within Saudi Arabia that Houthi forces are willing to strike.  
2. The video footage allegedly depicting the interceptions supports the Saudi authorities’ statement that the attack was thwarted. This highlights the heightened vigilance and ability by the Saudis to confront the threat posed by the Houthis. However, given precedent, it cannot be ruled out that Saudi authorities concealed the extent of the impact of the incident in an effort to prevent the Houthis from becoming emboldened by such attacks. Regardless, the reported material damage to a house highlights the persistent risk of collateral damage to civilians in the Saudi capital as a result of falling debris of downed projectiles. Moreover, the reported temporary diversion of flights to and From Riyadh International Airport in the hour following the attack also shows the impact that such attacks can have on air traffic in Saudi Arabia.  
3. The timing of the aerial attack over Riyadh is also notable as Saudi Arabia was simultaneously hosting the motorsport Formula E world championship in the outskirts of the capital. The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) reportedly attended the event on February 27. Thus, by conducting such an attack during a worldwide event organized in Riyadh, the Houthis likely seek to portray the Kingdom as unsafe to an international audience and to draw attention to the ongoing role of the Saudis in the Yemen civil war, which has created a humanitarian crisis. By conducting an attack at this time, the Houthis aim to hinder the Kingdom’s economy by showcasing security threats, which is liable to diminish investor confidence as well as discourage foreigners from traveling to the Kingdom. Overall, by projecting their ability to threaten civilians and negatively impact the Kingdom’s economy, the Houthis likely aim to extract concessions from the Saudi authorities, particularly those pertaining to the lifting of the ongoing Saudi-imposed blockade over Houthi-held territories and the withdrawal of their support to the anti-Houthi forces in Yemen. 
4. FORECAST: Overall, the current escalation by the Houthi forces indicates that they will continue their efforts to conduct cross-border attacks into Saudi territory, including major cities such as Riyadh and Jeddah as well as against strategic infrastructure, including oil facilities. This is particularly given the Shiite group’s possession of long-range ballistic missiles and explosive-laden UAVs, which are capable of penetrating the Saudi airspace. Furthermore, the Houthi forces will likely continue to target airports in Asir Province, particularly the Abha International Airport, over the coming days and weeks. 

1. Travel to Riyadh, Dammam, and Jeddah can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions and adherence to cultural norms.
2. Maintain heightened vigilance in central areas in major cities, including popular public areas and shopping centers, as well as Western institutions and places frequented by Westerners.